Member Info for Ghia

Uall - All of your posts have been on SNG if you really want to add balance to a board go and temper AVCT which really is tanking -19% today.

The drop is done here we are bouncing off the bottom and will recover leading up to results.

Could arrive up until about 5.30pm I don't believe in the codes but I am expecting a TR1 tonight.

Covid stocks got hammered today we faired better than most.

Rich - Hopefully the strict entry requirements for the trial meant the best candidates where cherry picked.

But I agree with your assessment.

Good luck everyone hopefully another strong week ahead leading up to results.

Agreed CW - We have researched this to death analysed the II’s movements for months and now it is a waiting game.

The hospital trial has been water tight which shows how well Southampton and Synairgen have been managing this.

Ever since the hospital trial finished recruitment the timer has been ticking, at home will slow burn in the background, if hospital is good at home results will be better.

As I’ve said before it’s a shame LSE does not have a sticky post function so that new investors can see the research this bb has pulled together.

As for discussing other shares a little bit of light discussion is healthy strictly out of market hours, I can say things here such as I think the GDR product is far superior to the NCYT one if I said that on the NCYT board I’d get lynched rightly or wrongly.

Remaining off topic

On Aim

I’d be looking at trying to get a cheap entry in GDR far superior product to NCYT IMO. You might manage sub 130p

Assuming a second stock market crash if ABDP goes below £10 again that’s a steal.

On the FTSE I’d be looking at MGNS it hasn’t recovered at all from the initial covid drop but will be one to watch once we try and build our way out of the impending recession.

There was the guy from Leicester singing it’s praises in the news weeks ago

JP001 - Don’t under estimate the fear factor with Covid, governments globally are ****ting a brick about the balance between kickstarting the economy and not being accused of using everybody’s elderly relatives as collateral.

If they could turn around and say the country is open for business oh and by the way here is a treatment that can help the most vulnerable fight off the virus they would jump at it. I’m sure most would be happy to live with Covid like we live with the flu.

So whilst COPD in its own right is a massive market Covid is the key to unlocking emergency use authorisation whilst it remains topical.

JP001 - Having taken the time to read your posts in more detail I understand where you are coming from we may not agree entirely on some of the finer points.

Very interesting ref you trying to understand the psyche of the Private Investor, good luck with that one! Whilst II’s are unsavoury my experience of PI’s particularly on forums like these is that timescales are drastically unrealistic in their minds and small delays blown out of proportion but perhaps that says more about the current climate.

Rich - apologies

Rich - unblinding COPD early is a massive risk as whilst being 11 patients short might seem a small number, the powering of the trial design could mean it has a very significant impact on the stats.

Something others more knowledgeable have pointed out it’s a very bold move which I take to be a positive sign I doubt they would have done this without the desire to examine Covid and COPD results at the same time.

JP001 - Personally I was sitting in cash in January/February and made a move into the markets to take advantage of the increased volatility something that has worked well for me in the past. Normally I stick to investing in funds for my pension and a few stocks that I am closely linked too but I saw the increased volatility as an opportunity.

When investing in Covid stocks I have tended to pick ones that also have secondary markets rather than solely a Covid play and have tried to seek out value wherever possibly.

Some trades that have worked well during this crisis:

GDR in at 26p out at 170p
AZN in at £67 out at £88
ABDP at £9 out at £17

In the interest of fairness trades that have not worked out so well for me so far but are only paper losses:

Small stake TILS in at 98p on the back of stemprinter news still waiting on that
Heavily in SNG average in the 50's having started to buy closer to 60p

Yes SNG have been at this for 15 years but their end goal is significantly closer now due to Covid. Without Covid investors would still be awaiting the winter virus season to finish the COPD trial.

JP001 - you are entitled to your opinion so please don’t take this as me trying to stifle your voice on this board.

However I think it is very clear the reasonings for pauisng COPD.

The trial had a pre-treatment pool so they where constrained to recruiting from that pool.

It would be unethical to increase the risk of exposure of those patients to Cobid-19 hence the pause.

They then explored options to recruit from the remaining pre-treatment pool if any contracted Covid. I assume these patients would be shielding as instructed by letters from the government, it is clear the shielding helped prevent them catching the virus.

“We are currently exploring ways to adapt the trial to enable patients in the pre-treatment pool to be dosed if they become infected with SARS-CoV-2“

Gkb47 - exactly my point the trial had a pre treatment pool so essentially they would have been waiting for one of those patients to contract covid to complete the trial.

Bdcarr - Just saw your question.

If I’m honest I don't know wether they would choose to do a deal prior to releasing results.

They won’t be able to hold onto the results for too long as it is price sensitive and they would not want to risk a leak.

It has been suggested that the interim read out of the COPD data is to assist a potential partner with their due diligence.

I think this is very plausible. So we may get news on results and swiftly news on a potential partnership, assuming the results are good.

JP001 - Synairgen did say they had hoped to fill the remainder of the COPD, for whatever reason this did not happen.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the COPD pool of patients was a preselected pool of patients so to fill the trial they would have been waiting for those patients to catch Covid.

I think it was prudent to launch an independent covid trial we have a lot more data as a consequence and I do not see it as an abandonment of COPD.

Shadows - I think now it is wise to re/visit the broker estimates and perhaps temper the £2.40 target on covid since that was made very much at the height of the pandemic. If significant second waves start we may be able to revise upwards again.

It’s prudent to make people aware that funding will be required to take this to the next level after results but that could come in many forms.

Silly to speculate too much on price at this stage I think we can all agree today represents a much better risk reward than in previous months.

shadows - No one is predicting 1000%+ rise if you have read the board for the past few months the only discussion has been around the Finncap targets of £1.20 COPD and a further + £2.40 on Covid.

I think we are fully aware that further funding will be required to bring this to market and it will be the strength of those deals that drive the share price.

I find JP's question a bit amusing. If Synairgen had not paused their COPD trials the NHS would have done it for them.

They turned a situation to their advantage and repurposed the trial and in the space of 3months have delivered the drug to the lungs of 50+ patients.

This is a significant increase in data.

Nolupus - I'd rather Acacia where out before news lands dumping as they are they deserve to get rock bottom for their shares.

henderz - We would have fallen to single digits if that '2' trade was a sell had to be a buy IMO....