Member Info for Ghia

Does anyone have a handle on how long it will take to drill a single prospect?

Typically you'd expect a pull back on Spud before a further rise anticipating results.

Is that the gap closed now?

Nice opportunity this morning.

Matterhorn - If you read the original P2 trial register the first 110 hospital patients was actually meant to be a pilot study with a larger study size planned in according to the register.

We deviated away from that and straight into a P3 so should probably consider ourselves fortunate in that sense.

HarChris - Agreed we have to remember the HT took a long time to fill so a lot more was known about the virus after the trial had begun.

The trial also ran all the way through the summer months I wonder how much seasonal effect there is in the vulnerable categories.

You could imagine someone with covid who subsequently also caught a cold fairing worse. That sort of multi infection will be more common when we relax social distancing in the future.

ThinShins - I think the truth is we don’t know what the future holds.

Vaccines + Therapeutics will be required for years to come.

ThinShins - That’s not entirely correct the science in-fact shows that the vaccines are highly effective against the original strain of the virus.

The same science shows they are not very effective against the mutations.

That same science also suggests a booster is required within 12months.

Oh and 1 in 14 patients in hospital in the U.K. has had at least 1 dose of vaccine.

The months ahead are the easy months let’s see how we fare in the autumn before we get too complacent.

I would certainly not be happy with £2. I don’t see any deal being cut until after P3 anyway.

Gkb47 - I think budesonide will get horribly exposed if it gets used heavily. It’s not really treating the cause of the problem and only serves to mask symptons IMO.

Scinv - My comments are me trying to objectively look at the presentation through the lens of a non technical or scientific person.

Personally I understood the presentation and thought it was adequate. Evidently lots of Pi’s did not get the same take home from the presentation so I was trying to put myself in someone else’s shoes and recognise why this was.

Having watched the webinar back the breathlessness chart for the entire trial population starts at osci 1.

They then cut to the next slide that shows them narrowing down on the populations to show those that started at 2 and 3 on the scale.

They didn’t explain the first slide particularly well, I’m not sure they even explained the chart was showing the group average. They could have explained it better by having a second chart which gave a break down of the entry point for each of the participants. Showing the 11,25 and 64% split. 3,2,1 respectively.

I’m not sure how many people will have understood that n= in the graph legend meant number of patients.

So when they analysed the 25% and 11% populations it was nice to see it was evenly balanced drug to placebo. Again this was not mentioned in the dialogue so participants here expected to make that leap themselves.

Fine if you are technical but would have passed a lot of people by.

So yes these are picky comments and there others things throughout the presentation.

I’ll leave it there this all started from a throwaway comment sympathising with some of the posters who thought the presentation could have been better.

Scinv - I’m not talking about excitement and bells and whistles. I’m talking about consistency there are simple things that could have been done to make the presentation clearer.

Which would have been appreciated by analysts II’s and PI’s.

I didn’t mind the presentation personally but if being critical there was room for improvement.

Scinv - For a non technical audience the slides could have been arranged for easier digestion.

You and I may not have had trouble picking out the pertinent parts but many would have.

Simple things likes the legends on the graphs kept switching order, so repeatedly you had to double check which was placebo and drug. They kept the colours consistent at least.

Font size general amount of info on each page. Valuable info as foot notes to graphs rather than highlighted statements .

The above is being picky.

Merchant - Regarding your comment on the delivery of the presentation and the clarity of the slides I think that is fair criticism.

Merchant - I respectfully disagree with your opinion on the way SNG dealt with the coms yesterday.

Yesterday’s news was a reinforcement of the science and with that the risk for P3 is materially reduced.

It was however a failure to meet end points of the trial and an acknowledgment that P3 has slipped from summer to H2.

News that the company had to release but perhaps would have preferred not to.

They chose to release a warning shot in the form of an RNS and then deliver the news via webinar this was favourable for Pi’s who had the opportunity to unwind positions at a 10% gain prior to the webinar.

If they had packaged all of the information into the RNS we would have likely opened up significantly down and recovered during the day to a similar end.

They drew out the analysis of this data for a lengthy period my suspicion is Activ2 progression is inbound and the 3day weekend will reduce the number of emotional trades next week.

The long term view here is very good and the forward path clearer than it has ever been. The bitter pill to swallow is that P3 is taking time to fill when clearly the drug is needed by so many.

Prion - I think you need to re-visit your analysis you can’t extrapolate a trial where everyone has confirmed case of covid against a vaccine trial where they have no idea if the patient was subjected to the virus.

If the vaccine trial had been a challenge trial the analysis may have had more weight.

One fact for you that’s not surprising 1in14 hospitalised patients with covid currently in the U.K. have had at least their first vaccination.

Lolades - in the Q&A RM said he would be in contact with the Indian government to see if we could assist, with further trials or forward ordering. I wouldn’t hold my breath though.

Beforegolf - the 3.41 figure quoted was the real golden piece of information in that webinar.

It boosts the chances of success massively for P3 since we are recruiting patients who require supplementary oxygen hence are likely to be part of this breathless cohort.

I’m pretty sure our P3 data will be the most significant data set of any covid trial to date. The only downside is we have to wait for it and they sensibly cannot put a timescale tighter than H2 on that for obvious reasons.

Kevin - I can’t answer that one for you I’m afraid. By the end of next week we will find out how many of our II friends jumped ship my suspicion is not many.

I wouldn’t rule out Activ2 news shortly either.

Alinz - I’ve always preferred the saying.

“Plan what you do and do what you plan”

Most people fall foul of either part of that saying and that’s when they come unstuck.

Kevin - Today’s outcome that there is a specific target group for the treatment and it can be easily diagnosed is really good news.

This targeting of the use and clear clinical benefit in that subset will IMO justify a high asking price.

The drug is one of the best chances of preventing people entering ICU and they have identified a way of detecting who may ultimately end up in ICU.

Teamwork - Because predicting trial execution times is very difficult 6months could be 3months.

Things can change very rapidly and I would rather be in than out.