The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Don’t forget we know that JPM have different branches and entities that often go against each other - without withers knowledge (or so we’re told). Could be as simple as that in terms of conflict.
Anyway, we know JPM like to earn money so having them involved in the takeover, (no doubt with a percentage of the deal going their way) surely they’ll want the ultimate best price for Newcrest? :-)
Or maybe they have another arm of their company that are helping Newmont too!!! (rofl emoji) - it could literally be anything with them!
It’s out there - You just keep posting uneducated stuff don’t you? Haha. The whole takeover at the highest SP over 52 weeks is a chat board myth.
You think if a £2m mcap company drills a hole like had05 and want to be bought out then they can only be bought out for the highest SP? That doesn’t even make sense in fantasy land.
Isn’t left-field news fun? :-) Another few possible/different routes/stops just added to the GGP journey…this is gonna end up being one long and enthralling rollercoaster.
How can you slow pace Havieron? Telfer needs ore otherwise it starts to ‘lose money’ - I don’t think some piece get this. It will cost them to remain open. Whoever eventually owns Havieron and Telfer, they are in inextricably linked. It needs ore to survive asap.
Nice forward thinking post Zoros. I like that kind of stuff and chances are it’s just as plausible as any other theories.
Daveri007 - I don’t see why you would automatically see this as a negative. Why do we care who has the other 70% as long as we keep our 30% or get paid handsomely for it?
I disagree with the Wyloo 9% thinking though. They’d merely have 9% of GGP and are along for the ride with that ownership, just like the rest of us. It doesn’t give them 9% of Havieron profits or ore. It merely gives them 9% of GGP and whatever GGP decide to do with those profits when we get to production. If GGP reinvest, we as holders go along for the ride, just like that Wyloo 9%.
However, I can’t see Newcrest leaving Oz altogether. They’re an Australian company and always have been, as well as Telfer being pretty much their origin story as a company. If they don’t leave Oz altogether, they will not be selling their stake and a working processing plant in Patersons elephant country, especially with all the finds and activity going on there at the minute.
If they do leave Oz, then everything will be sold in bulk, so we might not get to know a specific value, but a rough estimation of even £2bn would value our 30% at around £600m for a 9-10moz FS. We know there is frack loads more down there so a good starting point. Can’t imagine the Telfer plant itself being valued at much due to lack of Ore and the work required to get Havieron ore to Telfer.
We would end up with a new JV lead partner that we clearly get along with and a new bottom valuation of half a billion at least.
Either way, this unexpected journey still has a long way to go and I can see lots of twists and turns coming. The above scenario would definitely be very interesting :-)
All the best holders!
Yeah, we’re all still waiting for the damn ‘Buy-out’ rns lol
Good news :-)
You’ve been saying that for a while Ace. What makes you think that?
Great news about the decline pace. Great news about what looks like better alignment with NCM which will lead to a better all round Havieron project.
Only thing missing is to start spreading some news about other tenements and getting to work on them too. Too much emphasis on Havieron only still.
Haha…you know it’s trouble when the RNS doesn’t say “the company is PLEASED to announce…”
More waiting required from Wales :-( God, this country has to be one of the worse in terms of mining. Best to stick to Oz or North America.
What in god’s scorched earth are you guys talking about? Shares in issue is related to SP yes, but not mcap! If Havieron is suddenly valued at say £10bn, our 30% will be worth £3bn in theory. We would then be worth £3bn regardless of shares in issue. Yes, it will be a lower SP, so less cash for us due to dilution, but irrelevant to the mcap.
That’s fine Cul, but it has zero relation to shares in issue.
I don’t get it RTC - if we’re currently £400m mcap then regardless of shares in issue, it would still be a ten-bagger to £4bn mcap. What have shares in issue got to do with a company ten-bagging its mcap if the value of the company increases?
Way too many conspiracy theorists about…it’s like saying no new mining companies ever make it to production…(roll eyes emoji)
And in my eyes…the 18 month contracts seem to imply that we’ll be mining before that.
Unless it’s a basic contractual thing for Newcrest to dish out only 18 month contracts, it would surprise me if they are giving these to end in the actual month we start mining. Makes me think we’ll be mining before that. It covers all bases and hiccups, and then allows them to give new longer term Havieron contracts after that.
10% win = 1/10 odds
20% win = 1/5 odds
25% win = 1/4 odds
If people are looking for these kinds of returns then just go bet on the horses or Man City to win next game. You guys are wasting your time investing in shares.
The issue I see with Alba is that they seem to be reactive rather than proactive in almost everything they do. No idea who is to blame but they really need to start thinking ahead and plan accordingly. Have multiple scenarios for multiple outcomes and then adjust them as info comes in, but being prepared doesn’t seem to be in their dictionary. Good potential here but currently need to organise themselves better.
With great patience, comes great leverage…just a wait till we get started folks. It’s much easier for high Mcap companies to make more money than start ups. Wait till SD is given freedom to roam and starts compound growth income ;-)
How much is Newcrest SP down in last couple of years?
If I had all those “baggers”, I’d be retired and sipping ****tails and Beers on a beach somewhere, not still investing.
So at £7m mcap a £1.3m raise pretty much covers the 20% allowance. Onwards and upwards…as soon as the world starts to fix itself (face palm emoji)