Member Info for getafgrip

So, you are saying on the 3rd March (last Friday)- "AstraZeneca – The FTSE 100’s Number 1 by Market Capitalisation" with a capitalisation of £173.96 billion. But not stating the same for Shell on the 7th at 1:56 am when you quote a capitalisation of £178 billion.

You also state, "prior to the Ukraine war, Russia was the largest exporter of oil and natural gas." Was it really?

Darktrace has already announced that revenue would be hit by the sudden reluctance of potential customers to try Darktrace products. I'm not sure where this indicates that the SP will launch into the stratosphere with the results next week, it appeared at the time to be strongly aligned with managing the expectations of a, thus far, lame performer.

The world is not the same as in 2019, nor is Shell the "same" company. In terms of basic logic though surely the best results in 115 years of endeavour, should be marked by the highest share price in 115-years!

Nomad - your liquid lunches seem to move the share price up. You could be on to something everyone can try!

Yes, happy birthday NSS.

You are on your way to discovering the most important factor in successful investment - live a long time! Closely followed by don't let the kids get their hands on it!

A tidy gain in a very short space of time so excellent pretty cool judgement. Gains rhymes with Brains so time to get hold of some of their products - beer that is for the non-Welsh.

If the Stock Market still looks 6-months ahead (I often think this is down to looking 6-seconds ahead), it should be looking at the last interest rate rise with a little luck, quite possibly in the US. So we should be into a period in the second half of the year where we have financial analysts rattling on about the green shoots of recovery, and the queue at the Foodbank round the block from the House of Commons, with the aid of a few expletives, not believing them!

Boyo - you could be right. Certainly your graph points in the direction of £23.75p. Certainly without being over exact on SP or timings, following the last two Ex-Dividend dates the SP fell around £1,20p over the next 5 & 4 weeks respectively. Prior to that the SP fell around £3.36p over the next month, & prior to that the SP fell around £2.00p in 1-week.

For me there is definitely more slack to go for, but I only saw the opportunity to buy back really beneficially as having a time window of about 4-5 weeks, before the share price starts to harden as the QTR 1 2023 trading update looms into view around the first week of April. Also the best results in 115-years, with a dividend of 30c for QTR 1, a possible re-rating against US peers, must surely strengthen the SP with a fundamental re-appraisal, that may partially de-couple from the OP until it adjusts.

Good luck regardless.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-speech-cyber-attack-russia-b2286371.html

Yes, we will no doubt all have stories about the ones that got away & the ones we let slip through our fingers. I certainly have. And as you say its never wrong to take a gain.

And I have paid some money in to the Exchequer - how public spirited is that? Down to my last £2 cash in my ISA so I may have to think about Deltic Energy or something similar if I buy anything else. Good that you are buying Shell again, I think we are in for a really good year or two so good luck.

Apologies, this headline prompted me to buy back in early:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Oil-Demand-Hit-Record-High-In-December.html

Bought back in at £24.92p - the Horifax lost several pence of my trade, whilst they built up a head of steam in their systems! The dealer I spoke with to query whether my original trade had actually gone through was working from home, and hit the brandy bottle by the time my trade actually went through!

An overall gain of around £5,650.00 but I have "lost" the dividend of approx. £2,000 & paid 4x figure Stamp Duty to get back in (Ouch!).

The notional dividend realistically translated into additional shares when I bought back in + the previous dividend, which was just gathering cobwebs in my ISA & threatening to launch itself into the vortex of US Tech shares.

So minus Stamp Duty about £4600 ahead in 6 x trading days. My guesstimate was that the SP could drop to around £24.60p or lower before recovering, but always leave something for the next man - reluctantly of course!

Yes, watch out if you have a bear behind!

Boyo, just remembered, I think your Ex-Dividend discount of 23p should be nearer 24p based on the 28.75 cents dividend.

Yes, all aboard for the white-knuckle ride, of the thrill-seeking Traders Club!

When selling shares I have always, when the opportunity has been there, sold the day before Ex-Dividend day, so I've reminded myself that I never learn by selling my Shell shares 2x days before Ex-Dividend day! Completely unfathomable!

Wanting to buy back in is a strange feeling, because you are really wanting the shares to dip, when you are generally wanting them to go up.

Really comforting to know that I am not the only one almost wearing out my electronic screen over the last couple of days! And even better that you both largely share my conclusions. I was happy to wait until tomorrow for a sale before Ex-d hits, but everything seemed to line up today.

Just checked and although I have bought other Shell shares before and after, I bought 6000 of the shares at £8.92p on the 27th October 2020, and if memory serves me right the SP fell 50p the next morning before recovering - at this point with a previous 1000 shares I was £6,000ish down!

Altogether now though a 6-figure gain, 5-figure dividend & in an ISA so tax free. So for me a result after breaking rocks in the hot sun for 40-years! But, if the Sirens lure of US Techs with SP's that travel backwards does not get me first, I intend to be back in Shell, after they conveniently dip £2 in the next 6-weeks!

May good luck reinforce your judgements - I am sure it has played a significant part in mine.

Bailed out at £25.63p on news that Saudi is cutting production & my interpretation from this that the market is a little soft at the moment. Having said that I am fully with those who say that Shell has further to go northwards. Literally my best investment ever and I will just be looking at a point to get back in.

Pl - Yes, the Risks and Issues Logs are really joined at the hip. PRINCE 2 project methodology goes into the theory on this in detail. But, a typical risks meeting will move say a couple of entries up to red risk level i.e. they really need watching, a couple may be moved to say amber, or green, or even be removed altogether. One of the reds might however be seen as becoming an issue & moved to the Issue Log.

Lending I think you are right on reputation, for me Darktrace screams out for a robust, vociferous & effective PR. function. Make the Shorters fearful of messing with Dark and it's reputation, rather than just taking the hit & defensively allocating limited resources to buying their own shares.

Biden's State of the Union address 2023:

He said that he had pressed oil executives on the issue of increasing investments, and he said they told him: “We’re afraid you’re going to shut down all of the oil wells and all the oil refineries anyway so why should we invest in them?”

President Biden said he responded: “We’re going to need oil for at least another decade.” The chamber burst into laughter, and then Biden quickly added, “and beyond that.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Will-Be-Dependent-On-Oil-For-Far-More-Than-A-Decade.html

Pl - companies should identify risks and issues. A risk is an eventuality that might or might not happen. Resources are allocated as it is seen appropriate, if at all, to mitigate the risk(s) as you say - largely depending on the magnitude, likelihood or potential impact of the risk in question.

The problem and reason for risk analysis is that some of the risks may become issues, in that they actually happen. Then you have to conduct a damage limitation, or damage elimination exercise & cost and sort the situation out. If the issue is serious and was never identified as a risk, the company may be looking for a new risks manager.

Not all risks are adequately managed or even manageable by a company & as you indicate they need to be prioritised in terms of importance & potential impact.

It would be naive to assume that risks are successfully mitigated over time. More often than most companies are comfortable with a risk will become an issue, when it bites you hard on the .rse!

You are only describing half of the risks process.