Member Info for getafgrip

Mr G - Many thanks - Dive-dend is a word that I will definitely be using in the future.

Looking at an imminent interest rate hike, no big surprise that the OP has weakened. China growth could ideally do with being a bit more robust as well.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Start-The-Week-Lower-As-Bearish-Sentiment-Builds.html

Regarding gaps. I accept that they can form after sudden up or down price movements. I accept that say after a sudden SP rise trading activity often falls back to the point at which the SP rose & have to a limited extent used this in my own little world of strategies. I struggle though to see how a gap can be filled after a period of years, other than by stretching the logic, or coincidence elements.

CNBC - FT on First Republic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88Qb15EOB1g

Bob Michele @ J P Morgan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0zZkuuJ5fY

Oilprice.com view:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/More-Banking-Trouble-Pushes-Oil-Prices-Down-Another-2.html

Luckily Shell will not be banking with First Republic. Most will already have seen this on Yahoo - something will give very soon. The bankers will be unable to wait for their now traditional Sunday evening decision making point!

Time is confidence slipping further away, the US Government, Fed & banks do not have the option of sitting on their hands:

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/first-republic-bank-stock-sinks-202358741.html

New York Times view - will the Fed cover deposits above the $250,000 insured level. When many of the clients are wealthy individuals this almost comes down to whether the US Government & therefore ultimately the taxpayer is supportive of the rich or poor in this type of situation:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/25/business/first-republic-bank-stock-price.html

It seems paradoxical in a sense that the downtrodden, energy & cost of living hit US taxpayer might end up bailing out wealthy bankers and their clients, without having any choice in the matter.

Yes, its a stark reality that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, although the burgeoning middle classes in India and China are showing that escape is possible. the great thing about the banks is that however dismally they perform, the bankers still get their bonuses - this even applies to state controlled banks. There was a mass of controversy over the last UK budget, but it did not prevent the cap being taken off bankers bonuses.

Banking seems to be a Teflon coated career path. This is a good summary of the current situation from "This is Money!" It will certainly impact on the OP/SP relationship intermittently, so we are waiting for the saviour in terms of the point where we think interest rates have hit the top & will start to decline.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/fresh-panic-for-the-banks-don-t-think-the-rescues-of-svb-and-credit-suisse-mean-the-worst-is-over-warns-alex-brummer/ar-AA1alfQv?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c32d96b319b9425987ebbd31736bc2bc&ei=18

Boyo - some great logic and reasoning in your posts, which is difficult to debate. As you know I am not the worlds biggest fan of charts, but I regard them as essential, and recognise the shortcut to filling in the gaps in my knowledge is to check your posts regularly so thank you.

I was sure that the Shell SP would be northwards of £26 by results in May or Ex-Dividend day, but although the tide seems to have turned a bit in terms of sentiment in the sector (the SP has shown some really strong resilience. Inflation is sticky & interest rates look like being ratcheted up a notch or two yet. Why is UK inflation almost 2 x that of the US? The UK reliance on QE looks like the prime suspect:

The Monetary Policy Committee expanded its quantitative easing (QE) programme by £450bn in 2020 and 2021, taking the total value of assets it owned to a peak of £895bn. Simplistically that is an additional £450 billion in the UK economy chasing the purchase of roughly the same amount of goods and services. You have effectively devalued the £ so surprise surprise more pounds are needed to purchase the same volume of goods & services.

I was looking at trading Shell and then buying back, but I am becoming less and less sure of doing this due to potential further volatility. Banking crisis - what banking crisis?:

First Republic Lost $100 Billion in Deposits in the Banking Panic & is now slashing its workforce:

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/cc160c86-7856-375e-967f-c0c835c4aa15/first-republic-lost-100.html

Hedge funds place biggest ever short on treasuries - 24th April 2023:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/hedge-funds-place-biggest-ever-short-on-treasuries/articleshow/99744405.cms

It was not just Silicon Valley bank & Signature Bank that had bought too many long-dated low-coupon US Treasury Bonds, which although AAA rated, left the banks vulnerable to rising interest rates & emergency loss-making sales. But lets not worry these leading-edge genius financial institutions have each depositor guaranteed up to $250,000 by the Fed & at the discretion of the Fed in these cases the whole deposit. The Fed acting as a backstop for all $ loans by banks however barmy, and if necessary a tame bunch of the big banks will inject capital into failing banks or take them over.

The march of the Zombie Banks is upon us - certainly increased volatility, nervousness and uncertainty. Also the public are starved of critical information relating to the health of the banking sector!

It's worth looking at Citadels short positions on this site starting on the 2nd February this year. They indicate strong persistence in maintaining this strategy.

Roo shorting activity:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/23/citadel-billionaire-ken-griffin-bet-against-deliveroo/

https://www.extrahop.com/

Clueless:

Current role holder

The Rt Hon "Cr"uella Braverman KC MP is Secretary of State for the Home Department

Suella Braverman was appointed Secretary of State for the Home Department on 25 October 2022. She previously held the same role between 6 September 2022 and 19 October 2022.

Oops! .... we are seeing it other than in broad terms.

Good posts Larry - its difficult to disagree with any of the analysis. My only concern at the moment with the "disruption" in supply, shipping patterns, refining, mixing crude of different origins and types, changes to ultimate customers etc etc.

How accurate are some of the figures on the edges: for instance is India going to take on big increases in Russian crude imports, probably mix, then refine it all & then tell Governments etc exactly where it went. If Russia intends to switch cargoes at sea, or head for a "grey" refinery somewhere, are they going to be open about quantities & grades of crude shipped! There is only ever a single version of the truth, but I am not sure that

Taiwan is a really interesting one - and not just because of the history between China and Taiwan pre-dating World War 2. Silicon chips now power everything from mobile phones to electric cars—and they make up 15% of Taiwan’s GDP. They are the most important commercial commodity in the world. Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Most are manufactured by a single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). Until now, the most advanced have been made only in Taiwan. "Chip War" FT business Book of the Year 2022 by Chris Miller, is brilliant on this.

The semiconductor industry is called Taiwan’s “silicon shield”, giving the world a big reason to defend the island. Yet chips are the industry most affected by the split between America and China. Parts of the shield are now moving abroad. In December TSMC held a ceremony to mark the start of a chip plant (or “fab”) in Arizona. Joe Biden was there, as were Tim Cook from Apple and TSMC’s founder, Morris Chang. Mr Chang said TSMC would triple its investment in Arizona to $40bn, open a second fab in 2026 and make three-nanometre chips, now the most advanced, in America.

Biden announced that American manufacturing was coming back - but this is also part of Taiwan's defence strategy. Essentially, are the Chinese likely or ready to ever attack Arizona? Rather than remaining vulnerable to Chinese aggression, with a defence strategy that involves keeping the Chinese at bay only for a short time, until their allies from the US and Japan enter the fray. But beyond that there are emergency plans in place for the evacuation or destruction of all key chip manufacturing equipment and technological expertise from Taiwan. Who else is taking sides - witness the recent AUKUS pact - Australia, UK and US!

China's crude imports highest for 3-years:

https://oilprice.com/

Impact of Russian sanctions - virtually no difference in crude exports:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Inches-Closer-To-G7-Price-Cap.html

Don't the oil majors that are constituents of the XLE fund have to rise, before the fund itself. Or is this different?

"And out of their gloom and darkness the eyes of the blind shall see:"

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1000642/london-stock-exchange-falls-as-ubs-cuts-to-neutral-and-lowers-forecasts-1000642.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63623502

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/05/london-stock-exchange-battles-avoid-irrelevance-red-tape-swamps/

https://www.ft.com/content/3cd149f6-8136-42bf-9319-e861c11a89ef

Everyone wants a piece of the pie! Signs of industrial action ahead:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/careersandeducation/offshore-workers-to-stage-48-hour-strike-in-pay-dispute/ar-AA19zTPa?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=d34f286acdb44e7084099b7fe0321ba5&ei=59

Whatever your views are on buybacks, the lucky individual who ultimately owns the very last Shell share in existence will never stop smiling! All you have to do is make sure that you live a very, very long time.