Member Info for getafgrip

Oops! Last paragraph refers to the banks Bond holdings - should end "something cataclysmic happens!"

I think we have been here before on this thread discussing or highlighting Evergrande as an issue. Is it a significant issue for financial markets. Evergrande has a debt level that equates to 2 x the total market capitalisation of Shell plc. and climbing! In 2021 it was found to be struggling with $300 billion in liabilities, so it is safe to assume it is much greater now, in spite of significant smoke and mirrors restructuring exercises!

Essentially, the Chinese have been inscrutably trying to do something about this busted-flush issue for over 2-years now and it is further from resolution than it ever was! In the latest filings in New York, Tianji Holding and Scenery Journey – of whom Evergrande is the ultimate holding company – also filed for chapter 15 protection in order to buy time for yet another restructuring whilst protecting its US assets. The issue is not just Evergrande, but also the wider commercial property market in China.

The following is an extract from the Guardian on the 18th August 2023:

"Last month, however, Evergrande posted a combined loss of $81bn for 2021 and 2022, prompting worries about the viability of the debt restructuring plan.

China’s property sector remains in turmoil, with major developers failing to complete housing projects, triggering protests and mortgage boycotts from homebuyers.

There are fears that problems in the country’s property sector could spread to other parts of China’s economy as growth slows. Since the sector’s debt crisis unfolded in mid-2021, companies accounting for 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted.

Beijing has recently sought to bolster the real estate sector by cutting mortgage rates, slashing red tape and offering more loans to developers. Something to do with "plapering over the clacks" according to Chinese reporters!"

China completed a remarkable transformation over three decades, becoming a global power and world's 2nd largest economy. From 1981 to 2011, China's real GDP rose annually at 10.2%. Economists had previously argued that an economy could not be force-grown at this rate. The growth in the middle-classes alone is astronomic.Now it fights the US for top-spot.

The other big spectre is the Bond market. Guess what the above will do to the International Bond market - and has been impacting since 2021!? Combined with continuing interest rate rises making COVID-time US Treasury investments at a relatively low coupon a bit of a millstone compared to the latest issue Bonds at a much higher coupon. This issue is not just limited to US Regional Banks, and not just limited to the Fed and US tax-payers acting as a back-stop trying to keep a lid on it! The worlds banks are up to their knees trying to sort this out without any waves being apparent on world markets. The real cruncher is how high interest rates can go without fracturing the Bond market - everyone is playing for time - praying inflation shows signs of exiting stage left soon before some

DP - I couldn't agree more. I think my biggest concern is that anyone might listen to him! Certainly it is stifling sensible contributions from people who probably have got an interest, in that they actually own shares in Deltic.

Deltic has to be an interesting play, the fact is the Government are chasing energy security & they are opening up the North Sea to new exploration, probably from areas that they previously saw as strategic reserves. BP as an example sold off much of its North sea production to companies like Ineos. And if Jim Ratcliffe sees a future in the North Sea extraction of fossil fuels few would argue with his reasoning.

Deltic are amongst a handful of companies perfectly positioned to benefit, the key being say Selene looking good, and ultimately the point that revenues start to roll in disproportionally to the size of Deltic's capital footprint.

When someone claims that they have lost £650,000 in 6-months, I would imagine that they do want the price of Deltic Energy to go up!

This sort of performance should be welcomed, because for every loser, the other side of the bargain is a winner.

I don't quite understand how anyone would consider that someone with losses on this scale might be a millionaire, perhaps on an annualised basis they meant a "minus millionaire" & they simply missed a word out!

For Information - Asperger's Syndrome generally involves:

Difficulty/impossibility with generally self-limited social interactions

Very restricted scope & spectrum of interests - inability to see the broader context of a subject

Desire for sameness - everyone should be like them, but the vast majority are not

A general tendency to delusional paranoia

Strengths can include:

Remarkably obsessive focus and persistence

An aptitude for recognizing patterns

Obsessive attention to detail

Challenges can include:

Hypersensitivity to undesired contrarian views

Extreme difficulty with the give and take of conversation

Difficulty with nonverbal conversation skills (distance, loudness, tone, etc.)

Uncoordinated movements, or clumsiness

Anxiety and depression

Ouch!!!!!

Continued political hobby-horse anti-Tory dogma completely irrelevant to this thread!!!!

Easy answer - big institutions, investment banks etc say creating an illusion of demand or lack of demand, with the object of moving markets! It is algorithm driven trading - I was also a bit shocked/incredulous when I first I first realised how prevalent this type of trading is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoofing_(finance)

DP - the term for low number and £1 share sales is "spoofing" the market. There is a purpose i.e. if a couple of £1 million buys go through the market along with 3 x £1 sales, there are 50% more sales than buys etc.

A few parroted, largely extreme, conspiracy theories, with no process of rational thought analysing them! Add regular injections of party political dogma! Discussion related to Deltic Energy at best composes 1-5% of this pointless nonsense thread, with all the dynamics of a kindergarten playground, but not even attaining that low-level of nascent intellect!

Even sensible posts are suffocated by the narcissistic diatribe of drivel!

These two clean out the Big-Top, that's why they obviously have a nose for what they pick up all the time!

Boyo - it's a really good point on Quarterly dividends, also the sheer volume of cash being generated by Shell for some time now. Much lower debt, less shares in issue to pay dividends to, working capital maybe working harder etc. Ex-dividend for many companies means the loss of the same amount in the capital value of the company, but with Shell it seems to be barely noticeable, and made up for in no time. Maybe the last two Ex-D performances by the SP are sustainable & predictable for now. Really interesting.

Apologies, up in the Scottish Borders at the moment, so i haven-t got access to my written deliberations on previous Ex-D days.

This same scenario certainly played out last time with the Ex-Dividend on the 18th May 2023, then on the next day the SP climbed to £24.09p. Down to £23.95p on the 22nd May, then up to £24.18p on the 23rd May before falling in a more familiar pattern from Ex-Dividend day. Twice in a row is a pattern, albeit an improbable one.

I based my decision to sell on the wider economic climate, & decided that if the SP held up on Ex-D day as it had the last time I would sell, collar the dividend, and then the actual plan was wait up to 6-8 weeks to try to hopefully see a bigger drop in the SP, which is a repeated occurrence. True to form & bearing in mind L's comments I bought back in after only 5-days! My thoughts on buying back earlier than planned where partly based on heading away for a couple of days, but otherwise identical thinking to L, a quick profit in a few days.

Boyo, you are dead right, this has come up before.

What we need at the end of every trading day is the broken down total volume bought, time & price bought at, + the total broken down volume & time sold, linked for each trade where this is applicable. Then the broken down volumes either re-introduced as sales by the Market-Makers from their "stocks," or technically bought but then held as "stock" for future sales.

The big issues for me are the invisible declarations from the Dark Pools, private exchanges etc that will inevitably distort & skew any attempts to summarise what is actually happening! Conspiracy theories never die they just change their spots!

Happy days - a Shell shareholder again from this morning with an additional 108 shares to those sold on the 10th August at 8.15 ish am. + the dividend - feeling smug, forget charts and analysis, this is the point the shares usually take a dive!

There is a mass of incorrect information as you say. Why do Google and Yahoo & numerous other sites show differing share prices. Why n earth should closing prices differ? Why unless you are on say IG do you have to wait 15-minutes for prices? I sold my Shell shares 15-minutes after the market opened on the 10th! It is 15-minutes when we cannot deal & yet communications are electronically instant!

I feel a conspiracy theory coming on!

Morningstar Stock of the Week 14th august 2023:

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/238162/stock-of-the-week-deliveroo.aspx

L - Well done - I must admit I was tempted to buy back twice - its a very nice gain in a short space of time. It reminds me of how years ago, in the Saturday count up of gains and losses I would also take say a 3-day gain and annualise it. A really harmless, paper-based way, of making me feel like the big trader!

Oilprice.com view am today:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Fall-As-US-Dollar-Strengthens-And-Chinas-Economy-Struggles.html

Interesting summary of oil market dynamics:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/oil-the-opec-demand-saudi-cuts-disconnect/ar-AA1faYdv?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6e0fa32e71c947dcb1bf21f8c5fb722b&ei=24

MB - A scrip share is an unlikely possibility - A Scrip Issue issue might be say one new share issued by the company for every four or ten shares held. The benefit is greatest if the share price is climbing significantly - it is not treated as income, but as a capital gain when sold. Cancellation does not come in to it, unless you are talking about buybacks.

Telegraph view on oil price:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/oil-price/

Telegraph economic view:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/telegraph-view/