Member Info for getafgrip

GB,

The graph on yearly oil spills and major oil spills in the Niger Delta, may serve to inform your opinions:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/26/shell-pipeline-spill-fouls-farms-river-in-nigerias-niger-delta

I would suggest not cluttering your mind any further with the exact detail!

Jason,

The truth is really useful - unfortunately for CR888 there is only ever one single version of the truth!. Obviously CR888 when he has time off from posting relentless unsubstantiated drivel, simply lies to prove himself right!

CR888 - What update on the release of the E & Y Report findings are you referring to?

Darktrace has only stated that the E & Y Report will be released when it is completed, presumably not when you speculatively guess it might be released!

https://ir.darktrace.com/regulatory-news/2023/2/20/1669157CR888

From the Dark website upcoming events:

Q4 2023 Trading Update – Mid-July

Other than completely random speculation the E&Y report will be produced according to the Terms of Reference schedule agreed with Darktrace. It is unlikely the report will be released, in whole or in part, before the Q4 2023 Trading Update.

Alliance News today:

Goldman Sachs starts Deliveroo with 'buy' - price target 142 pence

Shell chief sets ‘ruthless’ new course to catch up with US rivals:.

https://www.ft.com/content/93b5b140-0303-4b60-8c6f-c7d0d055dd30

Most will have read the details of the Capital Markets Day presentation in New York by Sawan last week - the FT summary is excellent. Shell has changed its strategy significantly the future looks very exciting:

No doubt the dividend will be increased for 2023. I really think Sawan has hit the ground running so far. If he announced a dividend increase earlier this year it would probably have been perceived as being enabled by Van Beurden though.

With a number of statements relating to increasing share holder returns & closing the value gap on the US oil majors, what better time to make a big announcement than Capital Markets Day in New York on the 14th June. Wait for it! Wait for it!

Reuters - good summary of Shell performance, focus changing on fossil fuels, dividend and capital allocation & comparison with US rivals:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-pivots-back-oil-win-over-investors-sources-2023-06-09/

Yes, I agree. For me, it also still leaves a lot of credence with the experts who see shale peaking in 2024, because my reading of refracking is that it can prolong the productivity of wells, but it seems highly unlikely that they will ever exceed peak production volumes.

I also think that "bigging" it up & hyping the reality, is in the US Governments best interests in striving to be a significant player in setting World oil prices. Biden has played a big part in reducing the OP, talking down refinery margins, talks with producing countries, a prospective olive branch to Venezuela, moaning about fossil fuels and profits, playing the debt ceiling card game as if the financial /commodities World is about to implode on us etc.

Really interesting article Larry. It helps to explain the drilling equipment surplus that is available for purchase/lease at rock bottom prices. If it turns out that around 400 refractures take place this year & this compares with 409 last year & is about 3% of total drilling - why are refracture numbers not accelerating!

I think I'm going to look at refractures as being like subterranean nodding donkeys!

Quite a few predictions around including Forbes etc that US shale production will peak in 2024, which is barely 6-months away. So maybe Exxon are hyping up US capacity and capabilities a little - maybe with a push from Biden heading for the next US election. From November 2022 oilprice.com view:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Could-Peak-In-2024-Energy-Aspects.html

Shale drilling equipment being auctioned off at bargain basement prices:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shale-Drillers-Are-Auctioning-Off-Rigs-at-Bargain-Basement-Prices.html

It is difficult to assess accurately: how much oil is Russia actually producing & successfully exporting? Are the figures accurate? To what extent are new markets being developed with subsidised Russian oil? How much will Saudi Arabia cut output, bearing the brunt of OPEC+ cuts? How much Russian oil is there finding its way to the West regardless of sanctions, laundered by Saudi Arabia, India etc? etc etc more questions than answers.

Thinking of us. All against a UK background of sticky inflation - will food price inflation actually be lower if the Government pressurises the supermarkets to reduce food prices on basics? Or will we then have Retail Price Inflation (RPI), Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and & Retail Food Price Inflation, both Real Inflation & Retailer Subsidised Inflation!

Shell Yahoo view:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-shel-dips-more-broader-215020771.html

How high will interest rates go? It looks like unemployment might join the party in reducing inflation - but this risks the next election result.

The Nationwide House Price Index in the United Kingdom dropped by 3.4 percent from a year earlier in May 2023, an acceleration from the 2.7 percent decrease observed in April and the largest fall in house prices since July 2009. Even if the decline in house prices was stabilised at a 0.7% increase level May over April 2023. the 0.7% increase annualised over 12-months becomes an additional drop of 8.4% - scary for the Government heading for an imminent election!

I'm with Larry on this - I think the US Debt Ceiling is a big concern to get out of the way for 2-years and through the next election. I think the last agreement underpinned share performances, and optimistically I think it will this time around.

The SP is in a very tight range & has paid very little attention to the "normal" dynamics around the Ex-Dividend date.

The AGM could provide some good theatre if the forecast dividend hike is announced today, as the climate change protesters stick themselves to the ceiling & the seats in protest!

Hats off to you Boyo! If you ask for a bowl of soup in Wales, you get a bowler with soup in it!

Boyo - I had every intention of trading pre Ex-Dividend, but felt that there was no easy predictability in the SP. Brent was up SP was down and vice versa. SP reaction to news was if anything weird & counter-intuitive to me!

So, I tried to convince myself that if the SP held up through going Ex-Dividend I would sell then. But the SP was still £2 off its high & I decided against this. As we look towards a warm summer rather than cold winter, gas has come down & the oil price has softened, but in a few short months time I think the situation will reverse, bolstering the arguments of supply side issues.

I think we are close to seeing inflation top-off, with interest rates in tandem with this. Of course we are now in the middle of a deep two year recession - or at least that is what the Bank of England were erroneously telling us only 6-months ago! Now we are looking at tax-cuts and the next election.

The US will agree the debt ceiling by the 1st June, GDP is predicted to pick up, the Chinese economy will gather pace - lots of positives in the pipeline. I think the big one is that at some point Shell will substantially boost its dividend, which was not increased at the start of Shell's financial year. A great opportunity for this announcement on dividend policy is the AGM on the 23rd May.

Lending - "The role of the BOD is largely an oversight and fiduciary one to look after the interests of the shareholders - so should have a majority of non-execs which Darktrace has - - and the managers run the business."

NSS - I would go for an answer along the lines of enormous capital intensive projects & Shell keeping the interest rate down through negotiating power over relatively long-term agreements, with expensive default or agreed exit clauses.

The big one though is with the rapid rise in interest rates, they may have overtaken some of Shell's "cost" of loans, and encouraging Shell to keep some loans as "cheap" working capital. For example only: if Shell had a $1b dollar loan at 5%, but could obtain 4% return on a notional capital surplus $1b capital that it held they have a loan at technically 1%.

Also Shell has cashflows similar & greater than many banks, taking full advantage of overnight cash monet-market rates etc. Also, if they used their vast cashflows to pay off debt, and say placed the funds in an account with a bank somewhere, they may only be guaranteed a deposit insured only up to $250,000 dollars. So, some might see debt as being safer, in that once it is over a certain level Shell shares the issue with e lender.

FDIC US failed banks list - essential Bank Holiday bed-time reading for those not sleeping well:

https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

Failure is not unusual - but this crisis is going to cast a shadow over markets for a considerable time. Jp Morgan look to have done well out of it so far, taking over First Republic cuts around competition concerns, makes them bigger and removes one of their competitors!

HSBC Bank took over Silicon Valley Bank UK for £1 in March and MarketWatch noted that it has boosted HSBC's balance sheet by $1.5 billion dollars. I'm sure I saw something saying that HSBC put a note to its accounts to this effect! Nobody seems to have described it as "obscene" yet, so this must be in the acceptable non-fossil fuels investment category!

I've put the above in a "Report Post" see if it makes any difference!

Boyo - unless part of the answer is that the Shell SP is more closely tracking Chevron for some reason, could it be in the process of being rerated in relation to CVX!