RE: SP v Brent10 Sep 2023 07:21
Great to hear from you Nomad.
Yes, quite funny really, eating hats might come into it! My reasoning was not really a straightforward: the SP looks resilient and strong right now so i think it will go to £27 i.e. + 8% by the time of the results. More like a 2 x phase rise - kicking off with why won't the SP get back to the 2023 high of £25.80p on the 27th February 2023.
There was a lot of doom and gloom mill-stoning the SP for months, gaps with the Chevron, Exxon prices etc but its 6-months ago now & for me the mood music is starting to change. Looking 6-months ahead we will be looking at the impacts of interest rates topping off, inflation looking a bit more benign, economies behaving more predictably, and an election in 6-months time, with a few Government growth/stimulus buttons pressed, and only another 4% to squeeze out of the Sp to hit £27 four months ago.
Couldn't agree more on builders. they feature on my radar as well. Without checking exactly I bought Barratt Dvts, firstly at I believe £1.10 ish, then sold at £7.13p, when they topped at the time around £7.30 ish, then combined with the gain I made on Entertainment One, put the money into a share fast trader on the US markets, in which I am still the 2nd biggest external shareholder. There will be no happy ending to this one though.
The CEO of Barratts said the other day that the industry will be hit hard for two years before recovery, so lots of unemployed builders around at the time of the next election! Thank goodness for RAAC concrete riding to the rescue of all those building jobs the Government sighs. The Government literally cannot afford the "luxury" of a 2-year building decline, with the next election smack in the middle of it. Its a pity Tony Pidgeley at Berkeley plc died a couple of years ago - he predicted the housing market with unequalled brilliance - and if a builder in his employ was making waves had no issues with a fist-fight to emphasise his point!