Member Info for getafgrip

NSS - Many thanks for this and your insightful & considered views. I really should have stated "bail out for now." As with you, I am completely in agreement over Shell's present and future prospects.

However, I really fancy trying selling if the share price reaches what I see as a high, this side of the ex-dividend date. Then buying back in with the same level of funds, if I can judge the low point reasonably accurately - obviously the SP falls after going ex-dividend & quite regularly falls further, and switching missing out on the dividend into an increased number of shares held. There are trading gains to be made as several contributors have stated, but I have never averaged up or down with Shell, & would most probably "bail out" of my holding for a time at least.

Having said that I have chickened out of doing this several times, partly because it is so easy to just sit back & receive the dividend, but it does look like the SP is bobbing around positively probing its recent highs.

Boyo - a graph in time, saves nine! I think your graph is very explicit, together with your assessment of the imminent break upwards in the oil price & in tandem the share price.

My view was that next week the share price was going to be very strong anyway pre going ex-dividend on Thursday. Results that are the best in 115-years have really broken out of the box, the dividend for the 1st Quarter of the new financial year will be nearly 20% ahead of the 3rd Quarter of the last financial year, & buybacks continue relentlessly.

The Kremlin cutting oil output by 500,000 barrels is only around 5% of Russia's output. Supply issues have not gone away & maybe China opening up, an imminent major Russian offensive in Ukraine & the US driving season looming towards the market, will balance out Global recessionary impacts.

I don't really see the oil price heading down to the $65 range, but I may bail out of Shell in the next few days, on the basis of hitting highs for now.

Who would touch his hat after it has been regurgitated so many times, or even worse passed through his system multiple times!!!

Looks like serious implications for OPEC and OPEC +, with any breakaway decision that impacts the cartel. And after all the sanctions the consensus appears to be that Russian oil production was up last year! So who is ahead of the game: Putin who plays with no rules, or the West continually tightening the screws as Russian oil production increases!

The US non-farm payroll figures jumped ahead by 517,000 in January:

https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/us-non-farm-payrolls-jump-by-517000-in-january--12198904.html

The figures are one of the main indicators of whether the US economy is growing or slipping towards a possible recession.

WM007 - With any luck the stark facts sprinkled with some rational analysis of some of the actual realities might permeate some of the contributors to this Board. But, the largely clueless & ill-informed jabberings seem to hold sway.

I've been waiting in vain for someone to point out that the latest "shorter" episode is actually an unwanted distraction for Darktrace it's management and Board, which it has largely brought on itself. Where is the evidence of a strong & robust PR department response to this & previous issues? They are allocating scarce resources to paper over the cracks when this capital could have been deployed on important strategic objectives.

Darktrace has released a warning that new customer sign-ups have started to dry up. With two-thirds of the 2000 + employees engaged on marketing and sales this will be having a serious impact on strategy, revenue, staffing levels etc. How are they addressing this?

After almost a decade of establishing itself in a market that is growing exponentially, Darktrace should be in a better position than having an almost constantly falling share price, being seen as easy prey for the shorters, and being forced in to the position of having to buy its own shares as a crutch for the share price, as the brightest idea available!

Looks like an embarrassment of riches heading our way hopefully:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11686867/Shell-profit-doubles-hit-record-30bn.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/29/shell-and-bp-face-tough-job-of-keeping-customers-and-investors-happy-as-profits-roll-in

It looks to me like journalists are on a bonus for not mentioning that Shell's dividend is actually significantly lower than it was a few years ago! But they have to peddle their propaganda and distorted reality to a demanding and appreciative audience!

I agree - as a fully paid up conspiracy theorist I see everything that Putin does in the markets as tactical & subversive. Whether its increasing or decreasing supply, hiding supply, diverting supply, disguising supply or even axing supply altogether. Weaponizing gas and oil is a key destabiliser & market disruptor for him.

Looks like the main spoiler was the impact of strong Russian supply according to Reuters - Putin's goal is disruption on multiple fronts:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/oil-prices-fall-on-profit-taking-strong-russian-supply/ar-AA16Os8f?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b7105ffaa4454616baa8109d1903cc48

It really depends whether the goal of the company is the development, marketing and sales of leading-edge cyber-security software, and then letting everything else follow, or simply maximising the speed of the staff millionaire creating company conveyor belt!

Shell indicating that it will consider exiting its energy businesses in the UK, Holland and Germany, looks like being the start of a fightback against the perceived "punitive" Windfall Tax situation, just before the full year results. Around 2000 jobs are threatened in the UK, and the Energy arm also has 500,000 broadband customers in the UK..

When BvB negotiated an agreement to domicile in the UK the Windfall Tax position must have been agreed with Boris. And Boris is not a man to break a promise, because it is not in his dictionary.

When the Energy supplier Zog curled up its toes on the 1st December 2021 it was statistically the 25th energy supplier in the UK to go bust in the previous 3-months! We all know what has happened since then. All you needed at the time was 20 square metres of office space, a couple of cold callers, and a willingness to undercut all of the opposition with offers that were too good to be true (way below the cost of realistic fulfillment), a willingness to accept the largesse of the taxpayer, and a half-decent escape route. Then Bob's your uncle & you are a millionaire entrepreneur, injecting much needed competition into the market! The hike in energy prices was really unfortunate timing, but does anyone on this Board think that energy prices are not a commodity that often goes up!

Essentially Shell & Octopus have picked up many of the pieces of the shattered Energy market.If Shell completes research into the Energy market, and of course places it in the public arena, it is potentially political dynamite and it will be a massive minefield for the Government. But they love strong, independent research don't they !It looks like Sawan is not someone to play Poker with!

https://www.ft.com/content/d1e4beab-98ea-4636-954c-3163486e9f06

Worth a read unless you base your forecasting on weather predictions, as with CR888;s latest comments!

Great to know we are on the same page Larry & also thanks for your posts, which I always check out.

For anyone interested in looking at a tax-free shelter for some/all of their Shell shares. the approach of the Tax-Year end can be a great opportunity.

As a very basic example: Someone could for instance, use cash, or sell shares up to the Capital Gains limit of £12,300 for the Tax-year ending April the 5th 2023, then transfer up to £20,000 into a Self-Select ISA account, followed by transferring up to a further £20,000 into the same Self-Select ISA account using the allowance, assuming it is again £20,000 for the new Financial year 2023-2024.

Once you have £40,000 in a tax-sheltered ISA environment, invested in Shell or whatever, you may find it advantageous tax-wise, but you need to check this carefully, with a qualified advisor!!!!

You have to check what you are doing thoroughly: ensure the date on which the ISA will be open and enabled for receiving funds, ensure that you know exactly when you have cash available & how long it takes to transfer, and by what means etc etc.

Moneysupermarket is better placed than me to advise on this IMO DYOR:

https://www.moneysupermarket.com/investments/self-select-isas/

You are right about the recessionary impact Char.

I must admit I had settled down for a bumpy ride with Shell for a time, particularly through the turn of the year. A new CEO, Sawan, with associated nervousness about how good he will prove to be, especially following BvB, seen as a safe pair of hands, but leaving the company in great shape. The pre-results grapevine indicating the results this month will be good. Payment of a Windfall Tax may not make shareholders ecstatic, but it indicates underlying financial strengths. A significant hike in the dividend is very welcome and a big plus for income investors, linked with the significant reduction in the number of shares in circulation.

For me the fundamentals look really good. Barring something cataclysmic I would be shocked if the shares are not well through the £25 level by the next ex-dividend date. on the 16th February 2023, ready for payment on March the 27th 2023. With the company announcement due on the 2nd February 2023.

I think there will be a number of reasons for the short-term bouncing around of the shares. The Prime Minister has stated that we are already in a recession. But it is technically erroneous to say this. It cannot be confirmed until a GDP release from the Office for National Statistics, scheduled for the 9th February 2023. If it confirms that two quarters of negative growth took place in the period ending the 31st December 2022. then it will confirm that we are in recession.

Or more accurately we have been in recession since the 1st July 2022. So that at the point of announcement we will have been in recession for approaching 7 1/2 months. Not very joined up really, but the Hedge Funds and Investment Banks with their complex treasury modelling already know this, and have used the figures to price shares for some time now!

The questions and don't knows are how long, deep & damaging the recession will be. How long and how high inflation will go, in tandem with interest rates. The markets identifying which companies are the most resilient in relation to: recession, and higher interest rates & can they pass on high inflation to customers.The oil cap. How many oil tankers have gone dark - possibly hundreds! How many oil cargoes are there being switched at sea? How many countries are following the Saudi model, running their infrastructure on imported Russian oil, thus freeing up more Saudi exports of oil. What will the US SPR strategy be? What will the impact be of Russia supplying India and China with heavily subsidised oil, essentially re-routing a significant portion of World supply? Certainly it will apply significant downward pressure on oil prices overall. High gas prices will have pushed many consumers towards oil as an alternative, but how many?

The war in Ukraine will not end anytime soon.The Ukrainians remember the Holomodor of the 30's, one of Stalin's purges weaponising starvation that killed millions of Ukrainians. Russian Denazification is a real

"Nobody has caught on yet," but stay optimistic, even you might eventually!

Perhaps the fire was so big it was put out with a hand-held extinguisher:

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/report-shell-suspends-production-at-prelude-flng-after-fire-breaks-out/

Tip number 3:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/3-shares-buy-2023-stocks-130047160.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/04/world/europe/russia-oil-cap-zelensky.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-mulls-banning-oil-supplies-subject-western-price-cap-2022-12-04/

So, some would think!
Vanessa Colomar is a director of Invoke Capital as is Mike Lynch. Do they have any influence over Darktrace - I will leave it to your lack of imagination & various hobby-horses!