Member Info for getafgrip

Tactically and diplomatically a great time for Shell to call a halt on the record profits run.

The most significant drop in profitability being refining margins - in Shell's words: "Lower Refining margins in Q3 2022 due to a recovery in global product supply to meet demand." Definitely a shade economical with the facts on refining margins dramatic retreat.

The drop in refining margins was telegraphed well ahead by Shell:

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/early-morning-call--221006

Biden has politically influenced refining margins very strongly:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-demands-oil-companies-explain-lack-gasoline-prices-rise-2022-06-15/

A 15% hike in the dividend was the missing piece in the distributions jigsaw after the very significant buybacks that have taken place for a lengthy period now. Brilliant.

Darktrace announced over a month ago, on the 26th September 2022, that the AGM would be held on the 3rd November 2022 at 3.00pm (London time).

https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2022/10/20/expert-says-shell-is-an-ideal-company-to-benefit-from-tight-energy-supplies.html

Positive stuff:

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/darktrace-share-price-new-technology/

Maybe AlbaTruss got the message eventually that Government and the markets are about trust, consistency and confidence! Hopefully she will resign this afternoon - at the moment we are only halfway to getting back to square one minus the massive completely unnecessary damage to international & domestic confidence over our competence & position in the markets!

Darktrace will be buying back £30m shares to supply the incentive schemes of employees. These will hopefully be performance related incentive schemes.

Presumably the current incentive schemes are largely unrelated to the performance of the share price though they benefit the staff and directors massively - ask yourself whether this needs rectification!!!

From the shareholders perspective the incentive/reward schemes need a drastic overhaul.

Leaving involuntarily by the window is very popular in Russia!

Missed:
Are customer numbers growing!

There seems to be the usual level of groundless optimism over the results here. Darktrace is growing strongly, but not explosively as I had hoped. Ask yourself:

1. Does Darktrace have the best products in the world - if so they should surely walk off the shelves!
2. Is revenue growing or slowing!
3. Is revenue reflecting the growth forecasts of the cyber-technology sector?
4. Is market penetration in line with competitors?
5. Is the cost of client acquisition better than comparator companies?
6.Is Darktrace predominantly a sales organisation, or a cyber technology solutions company? It has over 1000 staff engaged on media and sales!
7. Why does Darktrace have a relatively low R & D budget compared to its competition! It does not suffice to say that Antigena simply develops itself! Or, that they are way ahead of the opposition.

A Business as Usual trading update does little to answer any of the fundamentally important questions & that is without the shadows cast by ML, booking revenue in the wrong year previously etc.

Fans of Warren Buffet should remember his “Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1.” Still alive and kicking he does not fit the definition of a fossil.

Barrie - maybe a Sexchange will boost the dividend nothing else seems to have worked!

You couldn't really write the scripts at the moment. The ink hardly dry on a big agreement between Boris and Bvb relating to Shell switching domicile to the UK. Then a few months later they will both be gone!

Then Truss and Kamikwasi stating they are completely opposed to WFT, but then BvB acknowledging that they are inevitable, especially in relation to EU developments on this score.

Then add to this the fact that Truss and Kwasi have been pushing flagship economic policies that send the wrong message at the wrong time, threaten to increase borrowings to an unsustainable level, oppose the views of the IMF/Credit Rating Agencies etc, caused chaos in the markets, sank the pound, raised mortgages scarily for many, & all after initially rejecting an OBR forecast. The dynamic duo have used up most of their 9-lives in less than a month - so how long are they going to be around!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/04/shell-chief-tax-energy-firms-ben-van-beurden-gas-electricity#:~:text=The%20chief%20executive%20of%20Shell,needs%20to%20be%20government%20intervention.

Inclined to agree with you on Kamikwasi & Truss. Political parties, in power for an extended period, often go off piste with their own radical dogma & social engineering ambitions, but I have never known anything quite as, inept, self-inflicted & crazy as the political/economic events of the last week or so. Boris's landslide victory is now a million miles away.

Inflation figures from the ONS are: "14 Sept 2022 — The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 9.9% in the 12 months to August 2022, down from 10.1% in July. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.5%."

Lending - Did Buttonwood model the projected yearly & cumulative impacts of inflation on his extrapolations, or indeed which inflationary measure he favoured? Do you consider that this might have impacted his projections? Did he mention the differing effects on his forecasts of interest rates & separately inflation, or both combined, and did he calculate the lag effects of changes in interest rates?

RPI was 12.3% in August 2022 (Index: 345.2), unchanged from July's figure. CPIH inflation was 8.6% in August 2022 (Index: 121.8).

Lending - "I’m not quite sure what type of investor you are but clearly a short term one." This indicates a typical degree of ambivalence & indeed confusion on your part. If you are not sure what type of investor I am, how is it clear to you that I am a short-term one!

You have been ramming it down people's throats that you are a long-term investor, the whole of the first year that you have held Darktrace shares, when in that time for a full year by definition, you were not a long-term shareholder. The intention of being a long-term shareholder obviously became a current reality for you.

And as for the drivel you constantly spout about the share price not being relevant to you because you are a long-term shareholder! You need to talk to a Medium & see what Graham has to say on investors buying at the wrong price, because hyena hedge-funds have shorted & distorted the market dynamics for a share & the Tech market has fallen out of favour.

Lending - I am well aware of the future perception of value with Darktrace or any other share, otherwise I would not hold Darktrace shares & I certainly would not have added to my holding last Friday.

If I sell Darktrace shares today, any visions I have of the value of the shares in the future will be ephemeral & totally irrelevant. I will end up with the cold harsh reality of the current share price & this will be the true value today.

When you are pontificating on about the wisdom and brilliance of Benjamin Graham, I would suggest that you mention that he died in 1976, almost 50-years ago and in a completely different financial era. Although some of his fossilised views may have some very tenuous resonance with the current reality of the financial world.

True value was £3.08p per share at 10:02 this morning. If anyone knows a way of getting more than this for Darktrace shares, please let me know.

Undersea 'blasts' recorded at same time Russia-Germany gas pipelines damaged

https://news.sky.com/story/kremlin-says-it-cant-rule-out-sabotage-after-mysterious-damage-to-russia-germany-gas-pipelines-prompts-warnings-12706208