Member Info for getafgrip

Dividend Announcement:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plc-third-quarter-2022-070000403.html

Cloudflare are up, but they released some great results that were very well received recently.

As Boyo regularly points out the SP and OP are generally in lockstep. Then recently he pointed out that Shel was "Kinda" tracking the OP & it was, with much greater divergence, but clearly even though the gap widened, the overall mirror effect of the SP tracking the OP was the same.

Even the Chancellor admitted that we are now in a recession - two quarters of negative growth. Demand from China is down & many world economies are suffering similar recessionary influences to the UK.

The Shel SP has fallen back, but as many have said it seems to be very resilient, considering all the negative impacts that surround it. I think this is because we are almost two-thirds of the way through the final quarter with really good average OP.

Income funds will be re-adjusting to Shell's 15% dividend hike for the final Quarter, which means that there is another 4% to come in January 2023, so nearly a 20% step up. Buy-backs have built over a considerable period now, and this continues - so a smaller number of shareholders own more of the company - although it may be a smaller company technically.

Significant asset write-downs from the COVID crisis have been reversed. If the OP is now significantly lower than at the time of the Chancellors Autum Statement, it will give Shell plenty of opportunity to try and influence some fine-tuning of the Windfall Tax. Supply side issues are still there.

Shell & other oil majors will be amongst the first to climb out the other side of recession. Harry Houdini couldn't make an oil price cap on Russian oil work as intended from the 5th December, but the ramifications will impact supply chains.

Come on Owls the 8 billionth inhabitant of the planet was only born a few days ago! And it takes a full 11-years to create another billion! I was wondering why there was so little oxygen around today!

It may just be the result of the fallout from Nicole Egan being demoted from joint CEO with Poppy Gustafson, to Chief Strategy and AI Officer. Possibly a power struggle that she lost rather than any lack of faith in Darktrace. There was heavy voting against the Boards remuneration policy recently, which featured ML and AB, so all is not as silky smooth as it could be at Board level.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-tumbles-recession-talk-093443898.html

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-tumbles-recession-talk-093443898.html

L - patronisingly heavy on textbook definitions of ideal situations & low on objective analysis in this case.

Our views do differ in that I expect the primary function of any BoD is to set strategy. Nicole Egan was the joint CEO of Darktrace, with Poppy Gustafson, for a lot of years until mid-2020, prior to the IPO. For me that makes it more important that she inputs to setting strategy at Board level, rather than writing the Strategic Plan at Executive management level.

There are numerous examples of her advising Governments at the highest-level going years back:
https://www.businessweekly.co.uk/news/hi-tech/18040-cambridge-companies-advise-obama-cyber-security

Obviously, she has been moved/demoted to Chief Strategy & AI Officer for a reason(s). This could be, taking her out of the limelight as a director when US legal eagles were implicating/accusing her of being one of the cabal of senior managers of Autonomy pulling the levers that inflated the share price illegally, or it is not a good look for the City to have 2 x joint chief execs prior to the IPO, or there has been a power struggle with Poppy that she appears to have lost, her level of expertise is no longer needed at Board level etc.

Or as you indicate removing her from the Board could have simply been to adjust the number of independents and non-independents on the Board more in line with the dictate of textbooks on the subject.

OPEC+:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Plunge-As-OPEC-Considers-Production-Hike.html

Oil supply side dynamics:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Market-Metrics-Signal-Sufficient-Supply-And-Weakening-Demand.html

US Shale Boom Over:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Shale-Boom-Is-Officially-Over.html

Shell's $30b UK Investment is probably genuinely being reviewed in light of the current OP outlook:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/WIndfall-Tax-Could-Risk-Shells-30B-UK-Investment-Plan.html

L - yes, it's a good point that Nicole Egan is not currently a director (she was though, so has she been demoted), but as Chief Strategy Officer and AI Officer I would expect this to be a director rather than senior managerial role. Jack Stockdale as Chief Technology Officer I can see as an Executive Team role or less obviously as a director.
Still their sales of shares are by senior managers rather than directors.

Could anyone remind me what the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Code is for a company like Darktrace, with its main area of economic activity being the creation of staff millionaires!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-18/bp-chief-bernard-looney-says-methane-leaks-a-huge-issue/101667546

Boyo, I think your pint is safe, even though you can only predict MBS's unpredictability for KSA these days.

The OP does seem to be searching out a lower level though. I think the price was relatively unsustainable for any length of time at the levels reached. Ultimately it damages world economies & Biden is like a dog with a bone trying to reassert the power of the consumer in the OP equation. The world generally seems to accept the reality of adjustment through a recessionary period. For me, we are now into the crystal ball phase, trying to judge how long, deep, and damaging the recession will be, and the impact on oil demand. Two years seems to be ominous for the Torys' with a view to the timing of the next election.

Wars always end, apart from maybe the Crusades, so "normality" may return. The cost of fossil derived energy may actually" normalise, but nobody is going out on a limb to predict this. Whatever happened to the laws of supply and demand!" As soon as our government starts legislating on the premise of high energy prices forever it is likely a wheel will come off. UK Governments are hopeless at prediction Look at the Panicdemic, serious finger in the air stuff! Think of what happened to the monster extrapolations of water and electricity usage forecasts from the 60's - but it gave us Kielder Water.

Boyo - Agreed on minimal impact of WFT - a nice headline grabbing further 10% increase ending in 2028 - but Shell made an agreement with the UK Government before domiciling here earlier this year & WFT prospects would have been part of this, Shell has not paid tax on North Sea assets since 2017, big exploration subsidies & a long profitless gestation period before projects come to fruition & qualify for paying the WFT. The Government will probably be lucky to get back anything significant on its exploration subsidies & it will be years down the line anyway, and they cannot tax where there is no profit.

I would not bet my shirt on the USA and KSA becoming buddies imminently though. MBS has no wish to be seen as a Western puppet-state anymore, and he will act only in the interests of the KSA, whatever they are. He is focused on the KSA State post-oil riches & he is pursuing a number of complex non-traditional agendas, although he seems to have a fondness for US weapons/culture & enmity towards Iran. He has taken total control of the KSA & is ruthlessly exploiting his position even if it conflicts with what the West expects of him.

If you like Murder Mystery Suspense novels you will not regret reading Blood and Oil: Mohammed bin Salman's Ruthless Quest for Global Power by Bradley Hope & Scheck.

Israel accuses Iran of oil tanker drone attack!

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/16/middleeast/oil-tanker-oman-projectile-intl/index.html

JS is on the Executive Team, but as CTO of a technology led company, I would assume he is called to attend numerous Board meetings. It would be strange if he was not a party to a lot of decision making at Board level, because much of it he will have to advise on feasibility, timings, delivery etc. Similarly with Nicole Egan, who was on the Board, but is now part of the Executive Team as Chief Strategy Officer.

RNS today

It's a big boost for fans of the Insider Trading Club though!

And the PR damage, which is not Darktrace's strongest suit, impacts incalculably on the perceived culture of Darktrace to outside investors.

W - Dead right - the great news was contrived & hardly fooled anybody! At least the directors are consistent - if only they put the same effort into boosting the share price as they do into smoke and mirrors chicanery, we would all benefit! The pedigree of this sort of behaviour goes right back, and is resonant of, Autonomy!

"The rising £ will attract more American buyers!" Maybe you need to inform the markets about this theory as they do not seem very convinced!