Member Info for Gerry65

Typos = rypod - sorry predictive text

Typos - regrettably many current shareholders are underwater, and have now seen the reality of how challenging oil exploration is following the present outcome at BB. I would personally expect many to sell up if they reach or get close to their break even position. That together with YA conversions, will result in selling into so rises. S S openly stated in the finals r n s that more funding will be required to take ukog through to hoped for commercial oil in 2019, this additional funding in whatever form will need to be in place well before year end. Gla.

Leg - it is a lot of oil - there is a lot of oil in place all over the world. It's about recoverable resources. I am hopeful that EWT at H H proves commercial oil in place, for ukog moving through to 2019. It could be a nice little oiler, producing oil to market via tankers, in limited amounts. However is it scaleable in the south of England ? That would need multiple wells in multiple locations. To achieve "national significace" would require infrastructure and pipelines - very unlikely imo - just consider all the discussions over the additional runway at Heathrow. 20 years on - still no decision. It's a hot potato. Similarly so would pipelines. It's a pity there was so much hype - as it raised expectations, and put massive pressure on SS and his team. Gla.

Wiz - one further consideration is how many drills and wells may be needed, to deliver 15% and over what timeframe and at what cost.

Evenolder - you are absolutely correct and I totally concur. OIP is such a dangerous concept - surely even the blue sky thinkers on here now realise that it's all about independent proven recoverable reserves. ( BB is a clear example of the challenges that all oilers face ). Hype did not help UKOG last year and won't this time round round either. People!e need to stop jumping the gun - wait for the EWT flow results at HH, then make a judgement. Gla.

Wiz - this time round the finals were delayed by about a month, probably due to the challenges at BB and how ukog was going to report them within the year end r n s. However there should be absolutely no reason for not reporting the interims, within expected time frames, if they don't get reported at the end of June I would be very surprised. Since winding down BB it's pretty much been a paper filling game for s s working to get approvals I guess. No licence purchases or exploration activity. So interim reporting should be straight forward. Any delay would be a major red light - surely. Oga by may end - interims and cash in bank figure by June end - hopefully. Gla.

Hi Wiz - yes i worked out who they were from what they were saying. Deary me though - they seemed so dire, well almost frustrated with planning approval time frames. Maybe the message got better as the presentation went on - for me it was so down in the mouth i think it just rolled over me in a flood of doom and depression. From my point of view neither guys would encourage me to invest in their companies, from that presentation - Not one for new potential investors to view imo. Surely the cost of production depends very much on the amount of bopd, in my mind if fixed costs remain relatively static, variable costs per barrel, should generally reduce with greater flows and greater daily production. I have no info on either of those two co's fixed costs, but i do know what costs are detailed in UKOG's finals r n s such as admin expenses at �1.75M. Another factor is how drilling is financed, through to production - at the moment its out of the pockets of PI's, with more conversions to come - so effectively one could say at no cost to UKOG, in comparison to conventional finance, which may become available if independently proven reserves can be achieved. Of course UKOG could continue on a free ride financially speaking without interest and repayment costs, providing PI's continue to be happy to see YA type borrowing or placements and dilution. To my mind BB has changed sentiment, and PI's are now looking at UKOG with eyes wide open. SS has stated that more funding will be required later this year in addition to the present YA funding. To me its important that the loan conversions are passed on through to PI's throughout the summer, as quickly as possible to enable UKOG to arrange its future financing requirements. It's not long now until the interims will be published to March end on the 30th June - when we will be able to see the cash in bank position. Until I see the actual cost of production figures in an R N S from UKOG hopefully sometime in 2019, i will reserve personal judgement. If costs are as stated in the presentation what factors are in play that create a situation where both Avington and Horndean are producing oil to market for UKOG at a loss ? GLA

Morning Wiz - have just clicked on the link you sent me. Have to say it was tough viewing, the three presenters came across as extremely dire. To be fair I am sure facing a camera and media delivery is not easy. Particularly for someone unused to it. I almost gave up watching after the first few minutes when the first guy in the audience walked out but I did struggle through to half way before I clicked off. The presentation may have improved in the second half but sorry I personally couldn't watch it through till the end, I may try again later. My takes from what I heard: Two frustrated oil guys who were unhappy at the hoops they had to jump through approval wise. Think one said it takes 18 months from deciding where to drill until drilling actually takes place. One said 100 bopd is cash positive which I believe. Though on that basis it would take 100's maybe 1000's of wells to create national significance. ( Do you know why Abington and horndean were loss making for ukog in the last financial year ). It was interesting to hear how differently each county council views oilers, some it appears are encouraging whilst others almost look to put road blocks in the way at each stage. The guy in the middle was clearly frustrated. From what I watched I can only see weald oil being small scale , ( hopefully cash positive ), with delivery to market by tanker. Can't see how it can be scaled up to pipelines with present planning regulations. I guess the ongoing delays for another runway at Heathrow are an example, of how challenging it is - years of debate, but no action. A no of govt's have come and gone and it almost looks like they run scared of taking up the challenge. I am thinking that as you posted this for me to watch, I must have missed something. Not just two frustrated oilers bemoaning planning delays. Wascthe second half of the presentation any better - from a viewing point of view. Gla

Wiz - you are basing your profit figures on many assumptions - which is fine if you genuinely believe the figures you have quoted. Lets see what revenues are generated from ewt, ( after costs ). shall we, then we can project forward from there - no point in jumping the gun, is there, UKOG has been there before, and hype really didn't help s s last time round did it ? May i ask a couple of questions :- How have you come to your costs of transportation ? Delivery at Hamble will incur charges may i ask what figure you place on this ? Not sure i have seen any r n s figures quoted for either of these costs. How much are you factoring in for admin / staffing costs per barrel ? I could go on, and list dozens of costs and imponderables. Which is why i personally, couldn't possibly come up with a revenue figure looking forward. But well done for your research and effort,may i ask have you any workings, for your calculations, that will stand accounting scrutiny. It always interests me when people post expected profits, on here - of course don't get me wrong UKOG does receive revenues from Avington and Horndean, regrettably these two operations as you probably are aware ran at a loss in the last tax year. How much do you think S S / UKOG will require in additional funding which has already been stated in the finals r n s, as necessary to move UKOG through to 2019 ? How in your mind do you see UKOG morphing into a company of national significance, and what is your timescale for this achievement? I take my hat off to you though, taking the time and effort to produce your data, be great to review your figures, in the full light of day, perhaps once monthly or quarterly revenue figure are being produced by UKOG, at some time in the future. GLA.

Wiz - if as you mentioned in your recent post, where you gave an example of 500 bopd from h h. Ukog would receive a third of that in revenues, say less than 170 bopd. Simple enough for a small scale tanker operation, kiv costs at hamble when factoring in revenues, but not massive as has been promised as yet. People point to the oil price at the moment. Oil traders seem to have divergent views on the price of oil for 2019 onwards. HH could be the start for ukog, if EWT proves successful, and it could prove in the long run to be a useful little oiler some time down the line. However one issue I have is the national significance phrase, that will require infrastructure ie pipeline. Unlikely I suspect. It would also require many many drills in many many locations to achieve this status. I guess it all depends what each one of us considers national significance to mean. To get from HH delivering commercial oil in 2019 to national significance is a colossal leap, in terms of drilling success and finance. In my view too long a time frame for many on here who will cash out when they not their break even price. That together with dilution from YA and future funding requirements will, continue to drag on the sp. Don't get me wrong I still believe ukog could become a decent little oiler creating positive cash flow. Whether it can regroup the �30m + already borrowed and future funding - of that i remain less convinced. I genuinely feel that the crazy hype throughout 2917 has done little to help ukog / s s / pi's GLA.

Heid - only my view. Not into horoscopes, sentiment is far lower this time round after the p!affirms / flags / lay byes / tankers etc at BB. Less will be suduced by the rampers ( I remember urging caution last autumn and winter, whilst marky, baits, miggymom and co were ramping like mad ). I suspect many will just want their money back from any sp rises this summer. Those caught out last time will probably be a little more circumspect wth h h. In truth situations like BB happen to oilers all over the world. Not all drills are successful. It's complicated and challengingly and expensive. The good news is I see a much more balanced debate this time round, which I would guess does not please the blue sky thinkers or those 10% er's. But lth's should be relaxed if they truly believe. Less hype and more reality is not a bad thing for ukog / SS / pi's. Another good thing for ukog is that many of this website's resident pump and dumpers are over on bpc. Posting like crazy, on the recent news. Though some are also over there urging caution too - I have no knowledge on RPC, so have no idea how it will pan out - just interesting to watch human nature play out over there, happens so often with small explorer's Be great if the HH ewt could be undertaken without so much hype, it would take the pressure off the consortium. Maybe letting them just get on with the job would be best for anyone. Very unlikely I suspect. Gla

Wolverine - anyone talking sp increases for oga / rig / tankers is too me purely looking short term. Probably for a spike to get out. Lth's should be focussing on EWT results and additional funding to get to 2019 commercial oil. I accept a higher sp in the short term may make some lth's more relaxed, that's natural. Any lth with total confidence should be hoovering up as many as possible , though regrettably looking at trading volumes recently, this does not seem to be happening to any great extent. YA have lots of conversion shares to pass on to pi's and need eager buyers to trade out the remaining debt. I suspect many pi's under water will get out when they reach their break even price, having been locked in for many months, and knowing that s s has been honest enough to advise in the finals r n s that further funding will be necessary to take h h through to commercial oil in 2019. I suspect some will take a different view to me, and will suggest massive sp rises, everyone has a view. Most have an agenda. GLA.

Jiffy - agree with you on sept 17 cash in bank figure and the YA funding. - though the draw down very early of the second tranche of �2.5m at Dec end left me thoughtful. Historically ukog funds when they drop below �2m in the bank, a lot depends on whether there was an overspend at BB, - that should be cleared up at the end of June, when we see the interims, you probably know I have been banging on about waiting to see the cash position for some time now. I would not expect any repayment from the HHDL loan back to UKOG, from the EWT. I would hope that HH EWT will be self funding but not to produce huge volumes of oil during testing, I may be wrong, but I feel those raising expectations during testing will not be doing SS any favours, it's testing, I had this conversation with starzon a few days ago. The inter company loan seems to be very much a gentleman's agreement, I would expect UKOG to be rrepaid from commercial oil revenues, perhaps on a monthly basis from 2019 onwards. Generally conventional funding will only come following independent proven reserves figures. Imo proving the three zones at HH flow to commercial levels will be encouraging but more holes will need to be drilled in coming years. My expectation is a further funding hopefully by way of a placing, in the autumn, again hopefully at not too high an amount, to provide sufficient funds to get HH up and running to commercial delivery in Q 1 / Q 2 2019. GLA

Jiffy - you are going to be sadly disappointed if you truly believe there will be no further funding before mar 19. Please. Re read the finals r n s - there in black and white - statement from s s. Ukog will need additional funding to get to commercial oil. I am assuming that h h ewt is about proving up commercial oil. We can revisit your post earlier today when the actual cash in bank figure is disclosed as at march end interims, that report will be out end of June. Not long to wait. Gla

Ocelot - that would be my preferred option too. This year is about : Clearing through YA conversions 150 days of EWT, to hopefully produce encouraging results at HH. Then funding for 2019. Depending on how much is required, at least with a placing - PI's know its coming, yes its painful to those holding in terms of dilution, but ultimately necessary to move UKOG forward. Painful for a little while, but preferable to the continual drag of a YA type funding. imv. GLA

Ocelot / Baits - what type of funding would be your preferred option later this year. I am referring to the additional financial support that SS stated would be required to move UKOG through to Commercial Oil in 2019. (detailed in the recent finals r n s ) GLA

Macrandolph - If you mean YA that's not their modus operandi - they won't hold. They lend to co's like UKOG, where due to their stage in development conventional borrowing is not available. They will off load to PI's at the earliest possible opportunity, which has the knock on effect of diluting existing PI's. They will take their margin - easy business provided their are enough buyers out there. They are hard nosed businessmen not blue sky thinkers, imv. GLA

Since dropping out of the FTSE100 a couple years ago - this company has just got on with business. Received and reinvested the latest div - whats not to like.

Ollieh - think we agree. The 1688 figure is an extrapolation, based on the short hourly tests completed Do you agree that over the 45 day testing period a total of 1940 barrels got to fawley. I fear that if not explained fully some newcomers may be under an assumption that " huge amounts of oil flowed" Indeed that's what starzon seemed to be suggesting earlier - unless I missed read that post. I like to deal in facts - doesn't make me a bad person. That's what EWT is all about. Let hope we get regular updates throughout the 150 days of testing this summer and autumn. Gla

Ollieh - and in the small print in the r n s ? Oil to market - in bopd ? Not an extrapolation based on short flow data.