Member Info for Gerry65

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Moniman - - despite many months of posting on here, yet again you seem to have failed to read any of my posts.

Monty is welcome to post here,particularly as his post and beliefs are based on his views of the information available to him, and based on his interpretation, of said information.

You on the other hand have offered little or any views on any of the three divisions, merely posting your sp predictions without providing this board with any cogent argument, a point which I have regularly raised with you.

I did note your post regarding something lurking in the finals, though I am guessing you'll await, media views on the figures rather than reading through the information provided, as they'll be circa 40 pages to digest.

I base this view on the fact that you ramped FLYB to the hilt, despite over three years of grim final information in many RNS over there. So I'd venture to suggest, that reading financial information is not one of your strong points my friend.

Lets see what comes to past -You alluded to a view that no RNS from a BOD could be trusted, based on the VOD cut in div - i believe,in one of your recent posts, taking that view must make it very difficult to make your investment decisions.

RNS - 13th May from STOB :

"Stobart Group is confident of delivering full year revenue, underlying EBITDA performance and the recommendation of a final dividend in line with management expectations. In particular, management is pleased with the ongoing commercial progress within its Aviation and Energy divisions".

I'm guessing there are a few who read this bb who hope you will get your 1.00p sp and that you buy in. almost every bb has a bearish poster, my own view is you will not buy in but will find a reason to remain on the sidelines.

Only a few days to wait now.

G

regarding Boatman scum, that's the second time that the telegraph, was quick to announce the latest update from the "one page" website with a clear axe to grind.

This time it came through on my phone through google - makes me wonder why they are so quick to print, an update !?!?

Maybe the Telegraph has an inside track here !?!?

G

Doublingup - yes I do, waiting on news there.

Markets are volatile atm, many quality companies have been beaten up on trading figures recently.

I would not be surprised to see BAB over 5.00 by end of day.

G

Taverham - agree have been picking up TUI on the dips over recent weeks. as it happens i'm just coming around this morning following a night flight back from a family holiday in Egypt, turned in at 5.00 am this morning so am a little bleary eyed lol.

There are headwinds effecting the aviation sector, though the resort we stayed at was fully booked - interestingly 95% were Germans with only a few British families there. I'm guessing it was one of a number of resorts on Tui's books geared more for the German market, where perhaps, demand for these all inclusive type hols, is stronger than from a uk holidaymaker perspective, at the moment possibly in part due to a short term Brexit overhang

I mention this as i'd be interested if anyone has any figures, that break down, the volumes of Brits, taking foreign hols. this year compared to last, against, other countries, and how it might impact each of the airline companies.

Moving back to fully focus on STOB, i suspect and have posted that i'd be doubtful that many conclusions regarding Connect will be able to be drawn from the up and coming final accounts, its just too soon. though perhaps some forward guidance will be helpful. the 2020 year end figures will be much more informative.

Looking at Southend Airport, here STOB is merely looking to recoup its ongoing investment cap ex, with increases in passenger volumes, which is continuing to step up , in line with projected forecasts, So whilst the likes of RYA, EZJ and co. have to deal with the over supply, and possible finer margins, what STOB needs is through flow of passengers, at Southend, to continue toward its 5M target by 2022. KIV, it's £10 per head into STOB's profits.

i got a chunk more STOB shares yesterday, before i flew back, which i plan on top slicing at 10%, to increase my free carry shares here. not sure if that will take a week, a month, three months or a year lol

i noted Monimans post that the intraday low was 1.09 yesterday afternoon - wonder if anyone got in below 1.10 - only my own view but that seems an attractive medium to long term buy in price, offering a potential div yield over 5%.

If today's early rise holds i suspect a view sitting on the sidelines looking to get in may be kicking themselves on missing a quick trading return, i'm expecting volatility between now and the finals, never dull here with STOB, lol.

gla

G

I picked up a few today to trade at just under 1.15 will look to make 10% and top slice to increase my holding here. Also picked up a few more TUI as well. Going to hold some cash back for around the finals rns, just in case there are more jitters.

I'm not sure how Connect will be presented in the annual accounts, perhaps similar to the 11.8 % remaining stake in Eddie Stobbart logistics, under Stobbart Investments. Or probably as a separate entity, within Stobbart Aivations.

The Energy Division should produce good figures as too Southend Airport passenger numbers, I expect the Civils Division to be pretty much flat. I guess the market will be looking towards some forward guidance on the Connect partnership.

Gla

G

Crl123 - I appreciate your comments, in truth I guess moniman is entitled to his glass half full view I suspect he is looking to trade for 10% whereas others have different strategies. As to how others see his gloating that for them to draw their own conclusions lol

I recall he missed the 1.00 opportunity some three years back and has been negative for some time, which is his want.

In my previous post I've quoted the year on year falls for STOB, EZJ & TUI, all will have given him a similar buy in opportunity. But there are no incessant posts on those bb's, so perhaps he sees STOB as the best opportunity, that and his frustration at his flyb losses, which certainly increased his posting volume here.

I recall, getting in and out of flyb at a similar time as he did, however he held and I sold. I also got into ASC 2900 having waited for the recovery, so deffo not at the bottom and I got out as it rose to 3500, within a short time it had broken through 4000 but why should I worry - I got my profit and I bear no ill will to those that stayed in, why would you lol. Worrying about ohers decisions and returns is the road to madness, surely !

So in some situations I've seen things with a similar view to Moniman. With 28 shares in my portfolio, mostly ftse boring reliable stuff, though sprinkled with a few aim shares for fun, i sometimes wonder why I invest time with him on here, I guess it's down to the lack of info he puts out, and that he fails to respond to questions, why he does that i'll let you decide lol.

Volcano pops up on a number of bb's where I am invested, and have traded recently, and I'm pretty sure he knows what he is doing.

Turning back to Moniman - he has in fact given himself a problem here with STOB. He needs to announce a buy in at some time, with the delayed finals and the airline sector headwinds is now his time ?? !!

If he gets his 1.00 and bottles it then what - "empty vessels" springs to mind.

If he waits and the sp moves northward again he could lose out on a trading opportunity to greed !

Is he genuinely waiting to a price of a disruptor.

Anyway that's me genuinely done for this eve.

Gla

G

That's Grumpy Pumpy Trumpy !

Auto spell doh.

G

Moniman - I'll take your attempt at sarcasm as a badge of honour my good friend.

I tend only to post here in reply to your posts, and a couple of others who lost money on FLYB do I not !

In your case I acknowledge you were posting here way before the Flyb t/o.

Thinking back, does your £1 buy in go back to you missing the boat here back in the spring of 2016 ?

I very much doubt anyone has bought in here on the back of my factual posts, positive or not lol.

I've continually affirmed that I am an lth, not a trader, it's in my past posts, available for all to check, still you know that do you not.

I like Stob as it covers three sectors, civils, energy and airlines, possibly it may take 12 - 18 months for the connect consortium purchase to bear fruit in terms of feeding through to the financials, and as a guy with some patience, that's no prob to me.

I note you make no comment to my question on the appt of CS. Nor to the return I am receiving only free carry shares.

The airline sector has struggled with headwinds, with several carriers folding or being bought out, and the desperate situation that tcg finds itself in confirms an over supply issue which factored in with political events both here with Brexit and with Grumpy Lumpy Grumpy, have led to sp reductions.

Stob is my main airline play, though I bought into TUI for a few hundred shares at 7.80 a little while back on the dip and I'm considering EZJ for a short term punt.

Tui is down 55.1 % year on year
Ezj is down 43.92% year on year
Stob is down 49.2 % year on year.

Unless anyone sees holidays and commercial travel as a thing of the past, then those companies with the strongest financials and track records and business plan, will likely come through the challenges of 2019 / 2020.

Btw - judging by the latest rns it looks STOB may well have 55% of its Nov legal costs covered and paid by Tinker, could be he will have to sell a few shares to cover these costs, let's see.

G

Moniman - your abject failure to understand the various rns produced by FLYB over a number of years, together with your incessant ramps regarding a bidding war led you personally to lose funds, but your posts clearly dragged others down with you over on the Flyb BB, I base this view on the number of recommendations your rampy posts secured. Yet as one of several serial rampers, you failed to offer any apologies for your misunderstanding of the actual position.

As such your credibility as a trusted poster has been somewhat trainshed imv. There is little you can do to repair the situation I'm afraid my friend..

Yet again it seems you have failed to read my latest post - longer sigh !

Please attempt to answer the question I posed to you regarding my % div return on my free carry shares here.

My posts are factual and are glass half full, if you care to read them they generally are looking forward considering the developments in the energy division and the projected growth in passenger numbers at Southend. yours are negative I agree. You mention the in fighting at bod level, what cogent views can you offer this bb on the appt of David Shearer ?

There have been short term headwinds facing the airline sector, a check on ezj and tui sp performance is a clear indication of this. I'll avoid any comments on tcg. In addition the connect consortium buy out of flyb, has caused much debate, as has the bod disruption.

I've stated my long term view here, I'm holding my free carry shares, for the long term collecting divs on the way. I don't recall ever putting forward a sp prediction, as you continually do, and I'm unlikely to do so in the future - there are so many influences on the market.

I remain positive for the long term for STOB, no doubt there will be further additional opportunities for short term trading on the run up to the finals.

Don't forget a buy at 1.20 needs only 1.32 for a 10% profit.
A buy at 1.10 needs only 1.21 for a 10% profit
And your buy of 1.00 needs only 1.10 for a 10% profit.

Perhaps all three represent opportunities.Thats for each individual to decide.

Final question if the sp hits your 1.00 will you actually buy, or re adjust your position ? If you do buy now long will you hold ?

As for VOD - I'll leave those posting with you over there to debate the likely longer term performance.

Moniman - I think you'll find Volcano has done ok for himself in a number of trades, taking short term positions in a variety of shares recently, I know of a few as I've been in and out taking similar opportunities.

Yet again you fail to read my posts, if you look back I am aware of your posts on this and other shares, and I have acknowledged your view remains unchanged. We both know that you you wouldn't be waisting time here without reason, and as I stated earlier your interest in STOB, confirms my belief in its medium to long term progress.

your previous posts on FLYB are there for all to read, you ramped the heck out of it, convincing others that there would be a bidding war, your 99p predictions of an easy multi bag, are still there for all to see !!! Your posts were clearly designed to encourage others to follow you into the abiss. Do you have no shame ? Did you not feel it appropriate to post an apology on the FLYB bb. It makes no odds that you sometimes posted for at the end of your ramps my friend.

Turning to STOB, I make no recommendations do I ? I post info on progress in each of its divisions. information my friend, at the same time I tend to respond to de rampers who post with an agenda.

My position remains the same, in truth i've tbeen through it with you several times in the past but I can only assume you don't read my posts very carefully, I guess that's because, you are getting into debates on numerous bb's with your sp predictions lol !!

I was fortunate to buy in here at 101p after costs on the 23rd March 2016, and by the August of that year I was able to top slice and regain my initial investment entirely, leaving about 45% of my holding invested for divs.

What I'm after here is a build up in shares reinvesting the div. Whilst STOB sold off non core assets the quarterly div was handy. But that was always short term, and we are now back to an annual div similar to 2014 /2015 / 2016.

In actual fact, though I've not worked it out, I'll probably be picking up a similar number or possibly more shares at 6p pa at the present sp than 18p pa at the previous sp year high, am I not ?

The sp range matters little to me ( within reason ) due to the above reasoning for many years to come. The lower it is the more shares I pick up providing the div remains steady or increases.

BTW - one final question to you - can you calculate my % return on each STOB div. Taking into consideration I hold the shares at nil cost. This share is effectively a gift to me that keeps on giving !

I accept that each and every one of us are at different life stages, some need to trade, some need sp growth others look for div growth.

I'm very fortunate to have retired early, with a reasonable pension, and as such look at STOB as long term investment.

Would I change anything - well yes, probably I'd happily swap my whole portfolio to be 39 again and not 59, but some times one has to accept where one is in life.

GLA

G

Moniman - just to conclude for the moment we are not falling out, nor are we throwing insults.

If you look back at my listing history, I regularly state I dislike blue sky rampers, particular on aim oil and gas exploration shares, with claims that they will be driving a new Mercedes on the profits they will bank on a 3/4 bag, they are dangerous and drag people into risky investments.

I also take a poor view of derampers, who post without demonstrating any real in depth knowledge of a company, purely to disrupt. Often these types post one liners on many companies at the same time.

Surely we all have 10 - 20 companies minimum on our watchlists, where we have completed our research and are looking for an entry price, I know I have. However I don't tend to advertise my plans and views, on bb's - though I except others do.

Returning to STOB - I take your continued interest here, as confirmation, that STOB has a strong medium to long term future, what other conclusion could I draw from your regular posts ?

Whether you get your particular buy in price - well time will tell, I'll definitely be buying more for trades, at these levels. This time next year a quick look at STOB will give the year high and year low. I suspect that both figures will be different from today's mid price, on that I guess we will agree.

G

Moniman - yet again you jump to assumptions, and conclusions.

I don't hold VOD, but like yourself have watched the sp drop. Unlike yourself - I've not deemed it necessary to throw 99p predictions into the ring. Those buying VOD in the 1.20's may in time find they have done well, I guess unlike you my timeframes for investing are 3-5 years. Not 3 - 5 days lol.

I have a tranche of funds ready to buy into VOD, when I judge that market sentiment has changed. Again it will be for a medium to long term hold.

Moving on to Stob if you bothered to read my posts ( sat 08.32 ) I have acknowledged that your sentiment here has been consistent - sigh !

However I'm not one for posting sp predictions, I don't recall making any sp forecasts here, unlike your 99p, which worked out well for you on FLYB did it not, think we both bought in over there in the low teens - I was in and out quickly for a nice trade, whilst you were singing hymns, on the stern of the Titanic were you not. How many did you drag down with you on FLYB ? Didn't do anything for your investing credibility did it.

There are a number of posters on these boards whose posts I read with interest, as they tend to fact base their views, and over time have generally been proven to be knowledgeable. I also keep a wary eye on others who tend to post either rampy or negatively, without facts, just throwing in the odd sp prediction. I'll leave you to decide which catorgy you are in. Ultimately whilst taking into consideration views and sentiment, I tend to invest and trade on my own research.

I posed a couple of simple questions to you on STOB to judge whether you actually had any in-depth knowledge of the company, in essence I was giving you an opportunity to fact base your position. Regrettably you swerved the questions.

The airline sector is facing headwinds atm, and I keep an eye on tui, ezj, tcg, dtg bb's to name a few. There are buy in opportunities in a couple of these imv and at least one to steer well clear of. Returning to STOB - I'll hold my free carry shares, whilst buying in tranches to trade, between now and the finals - at the end of May.

G

Moniman - I only asked three simple questions - how much did you lose on FLYB, and one on the energy division and one on your expectations on the passenger growth numbers through Southend this present year.

Not too challenging I thought but no - back you come with your observations at today's sp, are you of the opinion that readers of this BB, can't read the sp valuations lol.

Its giving trading opportunities atm - as are many ftse shares, it's just a case of choosing where to invest, and judging market sentiment.

G

Moniman - gosh share dealing seems such a worry for you - see you have been providing guidance over on vod too - another of your 99p predictions.

Let's remind everyone of your flyb sp predictions - oh that was 99p too at the peak of your insane ramping was it not my friend.

I ask again how much did you lose over on flyb, and how many others do you think you dragged down with you ?

I'm guessing that as ramping flyb totally blew your credibility - you've moved over to de ramping and joined the dark side lol.

What are your predictions for the performance of Stob's energy devision in the finals, and do you have a prediction for Southend passenger number growth for the present year to Feb 2020 end ?

I'll look in later but I'm not expecting any cogent reply, just another sp prediction - sigh !

Gla

G

RNS to confirm David Shearer's appt.

Three days after it was leaked by media, still good news, a very experienced guy.

G

Volcano - agreed, I'll be holding on to my main chunk of these, for long term returns. In addition I'm allocating a slice of funds for trading.

I'm keeping a weather eye on Grumpy Trumpy Pumpy, who is providing a number of buy in opportunities atm, over a range of FTSE 350 shares.

Stob can continue to ramp up its biomass supply to UK power stations, and Southend Airport passenger numbers will continue to filter down into the bottom line.

Various media reports state David Shearer is to be announced as the new Chairman, but this is yet to be confirmed by rns.

G

Moniman - maybe you should buy now for a 10% trade ?

Is David Shearer going to be announced as the new Chairman. The bid is tight lipped despite press rumours.

G

Moniman - will look forward as you say to hear from you in a view months time.

Your posting history at least remains constant here, which is cool my friend. Generally you only post on the lows and disappear ion the highs, perhaps if you traded on the lows rather than just post you could make some money here, it's relatively straightforward, lol.

Exactly how much did you lose with your crazy Ramps over on FLYB ?

How many others did you drag down with you over there do you think ?

Buy low sell high seems to be the way of it !

G