Member Info for Gerry65

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/what-is-roic/

G

Lejjb - I recall that statement, it was a little light on specifics, though.

Hard nosed bankers tend to look backwards at previous financials both for the strength of the balance sheets and income and expenditure flows, and will also assess any legal or political risks inherent in the project. The only security for any borrowing would be the asset, as yet bought to surface and to market.

They would then look forward at 12 month cashflow projections, CH being an accountant will or should have a clear understanding, of the requirements.

Following on from kenj's post which seems to me to sum up the position. Should the present well permit only relate to the two existing wells as detailed in the interim accounts, how will that - even if granted unopposed, by environmentalists, allow AST to progress the project.

Btw see you've topped up in angs, I'm locked and loaded at 3.83, over there though I have to say, I've not put in as much as you. 10p and I'm out.

G

L.a - Fully understand, and please accept my condolences to you and your family, for your losses.

You are right as we move through life, there are things far more important than, debating about an aim share.

I can relate to you, I have been there, having lost my father to cancer not so long ago.

Best wishes

G

L.a sorry for the lack of paragraphs, my chrome updated on me on my tablet whilst I was typing !

L.a - you'll know if you have read my previous posts over many months, that i am in agreement with you that the asset is there, as to the value, that to me remains up for debate.Would you accept my statement in my post 09.49 that to date the volumes of the asset that have been extracted and sent to market to date have been done so at a sizeable loss. The interims state a loss on production activities of £100k per month for jan 18 - June 18.Is it your view that the value of the asset bandied around is gross of net of costs to actually retrieve it and get it to market ?What are your time frames in years to extract the full value of the asset ?I also asked you for your thoughts on the required b/e monthly production levels to create a stable positive cash flow position.Is it your understanding that as CH States in the interim report to June end, that present well permits only relate to the two existing wells ?I also asked how wells would you calculate need to be in ongoing production bearing in mind depletion rates, already evident.Do you accept that the cap ex required for this project is beyond AST. It will need a white knight will it not ?Surely the white knight will require a well permit for the whole field not just the two wells mentioned in the interims. That FULL permit, would need to be provided in such a way as to allow continued re stimulation throughout the field at any time as and when any well depletes in the future without the need for additional permitting requirements. Such a permit would need to be unopposed by environmentalists.Is it your view that the present well permit request meets these requirements ?Any thoughts on the actual concession expiry ?The long and winding road continues, does it not.G

l.a - would welcome your response to my post - 09.49, my friend.

no Stcokdale cost not relative cost is key.

costs of production relate directly to any stable and consistent levels of production that may in time be achieved, doh

We know Slovenia has a take and pay contract with Russia and other importers for cheap supplies of gas.

why take and pay - because the country has limited gas storage facilities.

I'm personally not sure Russia is overly concerned, with what AST can produce, as some suggest.

AST will have to create a meaningful supply of gas at competitive rates, are you seriously suggesting to this bb, that production costs, are not important ?

G

Reso - agree - like the rope analogy.

perhaps my explanation is too long, certainly for Stockdale, he dislikes long wordy docs, like accounting info !

G

l.a - to date everything that has been extracted has been extracted at a massive loss, and this loss has been funded by pi's at a major cost in terms of dilution.

So much so that with the sp at present levels bucket loads of new shares have to be issued to gain any "keep the lights on" funds.

This allows traders to easily trade for 10% - 20% profits, buying on the dips and selling into any rises, whilst the sp, gets no where near the levels required by those locked in from say 1.5 - 2p.

l.a may i ask what is your personal understanding of how the npv has been calculated ?

is it gross or net of production, permitting, legal and admin costs ?

based on the known depletion levels of the initial two wells - seen as the best prospects, how many wells, would you suggest will be required to create a break even cash flow position.

knowing that each well bought back online is likely to deplete at similar levels that would indicate work overs would be required every 6 - 9 months, do you not agree.

i'd venture to suggest to you, that whilst the asset in the ground is the reason for the project. getting it to market, at consistent levels at a profit, accounting for all costs and contingencies will demonstrate, the actual viability of the project.

if you won £5m on the lottery, i'm guessing you would be over the moon, but if you then read the small print on the ticket, and this was payable to you at £100 pm, how woukd you feel lol.

G

The sp has bounced around a bit, dropped on the close yesterday then back up again this morning.

News one way or another can't be too far away.

G

Stockdale - i pose questions which you always avoid, we both know why.

our running debate has continued since early Aug,with every twist and turn, of this unfolding story.

people can look back over our respective posts, to assess, who has posted with logic and credibility, and who has posted with mindless blue sky hope.

AST, does not have the capital structure to take this project forward, the cap ex is too high.

Unopposed well permits, are required, together, with a full concession extension, as a minimum, to encourage any possible suitor.

interesting that in the interim's CH indicates, that the present outstanding well permit only relates to pg-10 & pg-11a.

it's deep in the wording of that "boring" pile of words you so dislike reading. Unless there has been an update, to the permitting request, even if this gets through, without environmental appeal, will it be enough, to move the the project forward.

G

stockdale your clueless lack of understanding, around cash flow, with small aim exploration and production co's will at some time lose lose you money.

Oh sorry it already has it not - here with AST, remind me again what is your average?

When you paid your hard earned cash for your golden tickets were you not hoping for a nice return on your "investment" which would have meant selling up and passing the risk to someone else. That's what we all aim for.

regrettably you failed, and may i suggest continue to fail to understand, that cash is king. perhaps you should reassess your belief, that accounting info is unimportant, and that you don't read the reports as they represent the past. Your stated view a few days ago, oh my days !

your mindless enthusiasm, reminds me of Lt.. George, in Black Adder. sat in the trenches, looking forward to another run across no man's land !

CH acknowledged that a compressor would be required back in Aug. where is it ? can AST afford it, the deadly silence suggests not.

Production continues to decline and AST continues on a monthly cash negative trading position. As such it will continue to require placings, fact.

G

very important that AST get the vital RNS out in a timely fashion, the Dec 2018 final Accounts, any delay will surely be a red flag.

the co. need to provide pi's clarity on the full years trading performance. we know from the interim's to June 2018 end that AST lost £610k ( over £100k pm in the first part of the year ).

did the promised cost savings last Aug. amount to anything. Or has CH returning to full salary following the helpful change of mind by shareholders regarding cash raising and JB's additional costs cancelled out any savings..

How long can AST continue with a monthly cash deficit ?

is lack of funds the reason why a compressor, has not been sourced.

we need to compare the forward plans offered in last years accounts to Dec 2017 with what has actually come to pass, and assess, the BOD's plans moving forward.

G

Lejjb / Reso / Eggonaroll - If the cost of the compressor is 600K as you suggest eggonarol, it's a non starter, unless some finance / lease deal could be arranged.

If I was a company owning such a piece of equipment, i'd be very thoughtful, as to the terms and protections i'd put in place, bearing in mind AST@s financial situation.

From 1st Jan - 30th June AST lost £610K from operating activities, over £100K per month !!

Then CH indicated he would look at some cost cutting on the admin side and as regards his Salary. But that only lasted a couple months, and he was soon back on full salary> He's now added to these costs by bringing in JB.

Interesting that using a compressor was suggested as a way forward in the interims, but to date nothing has been achieved on this front, many months later. Am i the only one who finds this a bit strange ?

The Final Accounts for Dec 2017 were posted by RNS exactly a day ago today. I'd be expecting an RNS for the Dec 2018 Finals very soon, no reason for any delays surely.

G

Exetrchief - The same message - just shuffling the words around a bit, but nothing new.

More gibberish, from a person hurting from losses.

As I've repeated to you many times - got your "heads up" most grateful and deeply thankful, to you.

Yet you post again and again - so i must assume either you believe i am not able to read the Queen's English, or you have another motive.

Ah that will be the answer G I say to myself - I'm debating with a bitter and twisted person, with an agenda.

Perhaps you should come back when you have some facts to back up your comments.

BTW think you will find the FCA is independent, I daresay should i take a look at the STOB annual accounts i doubt i'll see the FCA listed as a subsidiary !!

You really are sounding a bit daft now - don't you think !!

G

Sol633 - how much of the quoted 50m has been spent on actual development and production costs, to get 2 wells only up and running, but now with massive declines.

how much of that sum has been spent on admin and legal matters, some if that can be worked out from a look at the annual accounts.

if as some are suggesting its all gone into the fieldwork then i'd venture to suggest, present production levels represent a poor return on cap ex.

turning to the 200m value placed on the asset, in the ground is this gross value or net of all costs of extraction.

looking forward how much of the asset can actually be delivered to market, which market, and over what timescale.

G

exetrchief - a nine paragraph pile of piffle, with little or nothing on the developments STOB are making within it's three divisions.

why is that - because you have little or knowledge, to add to this bb on STOB.

lots of words and lots of hot air - feeling better mow, did it help, or are you even more frustrated ?

hidden in the middle of your f your post is my key take - you say you didn't lose much but on the other hand,you felt it was enough for you to instruct lawyers.

best of luck with that call lol.

your bitterness is eating you up you need to get over it, every post you make suggests to me that you personally believe STOB, have strong prospects moving forward, and that is making you very hot under the collar.

You were too greedy with Flyb you didn't respect the information provided to you in 2/3 years of financial rns.why don't you look in the mirror. btw please don't offer any investment advice or views, as your credibility is totally shot.

G

ah Stockdale, the guy without an agenda !

the guy not locked into this share.??!?

the guy who has stated that the forthcoming final accounts, mean nothing as they are historic.!?!?

over 5000 rampy hyping dangerous posts to his name??!?

The guy that believes only those locked in and under water should have a view ??!?

The guy who cries off to admin, about me when i pulled his argument apart last Sept, how did that go lol ??

the guy who has failed to answer many genuine issues that i've posed to him in the past.

Facts

ast need unopposed well permits and a renewal of the actual concession it may then may half a chance of attracting a JV.

or it continues on it's own, burning cash on a monthly basis. reliant on pi support, to keep the lights on.Oh of course the compressor will arrive to save the day.

Stockdale - what monthly production levels will achieve a cash flow break even position.?
Has a compressor been ordered?
what will it cost?
does CH plan to buy it or lease it?
why the delay in getting it onsite?

I'm not worried if no one takes a blind bit of notice of my views. if i decide its worth a trade, that's my choice i certainly won't ramp for my own benefit, i'll leave that to the likes of you.

you the other hand don't care who you drag in as long as it helps in any little way, to get you to your locked price so you can get your cash back.

Ast continues along its long and windy road, there are many twists and turns, as you have learnt.

In the meantime we continue to debate.

G

smithy - you say you are still doing your research, which is great.

please be very careful here when asking for posters views on this project, and likely future sp predictions.

you need to be aware that everyone has an agenda.everyone has a view.

there are those who have been holding for months and years, at averages in multiples higher than the present sp, who would dearly love to find a spike to their b/e and cash out.

then there are those like me who trade this occasionally, waiting for the rampers to get over excited, i'd happily take a 10% day profit, in and out, as quick as possible.

there are also those who have bought in at lower prices in recent months, already sitting on a paper profit, which they have not cashed out.

then there are those who still see many obstacles, and challenges ahead.

perhaps rather than asking others you may want to post, your personal sequence of events, that you believe may possibly allow AST to achieve gas to Slovenia. then allow this bb to debate your thoughts.

Did you not get involved in the DEB debate late on, over on that bb, how did that go for you my friend ?

should you decide to buy, you may wish to make a note of any poster on here that influenced your decision, for future reference.

it's your cash your choice.

gla

G

Whitelye - my initial thoughts when the press speculation was confirmed, was that I was comfortable as things stood, with RDI progressing its plans, over the coming years.

At the moment the Mcap stands at £591M, which is at a discount to the Net asset position in the most recent Annual accounts - £862.80M, ( all valuations are subjective I accept ).

I'm unconcerned with a no bid situation, iI'd be more thoughtful if a low ball bid.is introduced, Unless that in turn created a biding war.

An offer at £2 is very roughly equivalent to the NA value in the last finals. I'd hope for a premium above that figure.

As you say it's only a few days away from news on this, are there any other thoughts and views out there ?

G