Member Info for GeoChem

45K bought first 8 min. -Geo

There is huge speculation over on the Investor village site, the most rampant discussion is on the DXE [Dualex] page where all of the SE crowd have migrated. They are mostly saying that it is a find and tested BUT this is just like Bowmore and I know they were wrong in what they were reporting as fact there. If Syria is a bust then there is downside, but it's minimal. I think they are keeping back debt re-scheduling news to cushion any failure in Syria. If syria comes in I expect about a 4p lift depending on how good, Canuks are quoting crazy values upto 70c [=~40p], it would have to be major for that, propably a 2TCF job. I think 14-18p is more likely. I am afraid I am as in the dark here as anyone else, there is talk of any RNS having to be cleared in Syria... they could be just behind schedule, they could be logging the heck out of it, they could be Testing... nobody REALLY knows. I pop over to GKP to find Mikey and to keep an eye on KRG stuff as I am long term [18months now] in SEY. Best of Luck to you both and all holders, we are due a change of Luck here.. Best to all - Geo

You are a star - Thanks Hows things with you? -Geo

tighthole, as tight as any I have ever seen. Lots of speculation on IV but it's just the same as with Bowmore, and nobody knows even now how that turned out. I have spent over two days data mining for any hint as to where we are with this well and not a sniff of info is out there. The Canuks reckon RNS in days... don't know, but this is nervy. IMHO/DYOR - Geo

Just talk to the Canuks these days uh??? Going to be interesting watching the Venture today, seems to be a marked change in sentiment here, and the big seller fading..... syria runs on and on... what does it mean??? IMHO/DYOR - Geo

something big happening in Canada - http://cxa.marketwatch.com/tsx/en/market/quote.aspx?symbol=SE&x=10&y=9 http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=13216&pt=m&category=A GLA - Geo

2 big buys today, 100K & 154K shares, RNS cannot be far away now. We should know in the next few days where this is headed, 1p down or 4p up would be my guess. Oil Price should help Stratic with W. Don producing below expectation. I still think this will work out with a little more time. Best of Luck Larney. - Geo

I think SE. owe holders an update now as the well is far past it's prognosed TD. The longer this goes on the more damage is being done to the SP, its not dropping more now as it is in the basement anyway but holders need to see some value here, Canada trades are very volatile at the moment, volumes have been high and money-flow is shown as positive since the tax-loss selling stopped. These are optimistic signs in some ways but there is still this nagging doubt, I imagine they are going to bundle the debt re-scheduling news with Syria to soften the blow if this one is another dog. As Larney posted, not many rolls of the dice left here, frustrating for long-term holders. SE are showing a track record of non-delivery on too many projects, Cairgorm/Bowmore, poor performance on Don, Assets sold and gone.... where to now???? IMHO/DYOR - Geo

Tax loss selling in Canada, this SP is basement now. All holders need to cross fingers & toes for Syria. If Syria is no-go there looks little hope for a SP recovery here... interesting RNS from EnCore yesterday though..... SE have to be looking more vulnerable to a T-O take-out if things keep going this way. We need a break. IMHO/DYOR - Geo

The only words I can offer is that I view the SP just about as low as it can go. On that basis, you would have to view the upside potential of a syria success as weak, there are a range of opinions that syria is not material, rather like the Turkey well success has had no major impact. I tend to differ in that Syria offers a 10-20% chance of turning in a very upside result c.400BCF and an outside chance of a curve-ball result, oil/high CGR gas or a bigger than prognosed find.... it is interesting that the SE long term strategy has moved to syria, perhaps that itself conveys something [listen to Q3 presentation]. My main optimism for SE is that they will sort out W. Don in conjunction with Petrofac and get to target production+ giving them the cash-flow to seek drilling success, as such I am looking 5 years out rather than the quick upswing of a syria result, this is in part premised on a return to higher oil/gas prices which I view as inevitable. You can look at the SP plots yourself, Bowmore potential pushed the SP to about 24p, that was without even a known outcome. I suffer from over-loyalty, I tend to keep faith with my initial research and strategy, SE has on this basis rather under-performed my expectations soI am loathe to give you any advice. All I will say is that my current mantra is that you have to get a change in luck at some point with the drillbit, SE have had a run of duds by current evaluation [jury still out on Bowmore in my view]. IMHO/DYOR - Geo

Syria?... mostly 10K type blocks, is there a news leak? Geo

over 900K on Venture.... Massive trading for SE which is normally 400K per day. geo

massive volume!!!! - Canada..... 800K in first hour trading.....somethings cooking????? http://cxa.marketwatch.com/tsx/en/market/quote.aspx?symbol=SE&x=14&y=13 IMHO/DYOR - Geo

Another big volume day in Canada, two buys >200K shares before 11am.... looks like major investors think this is the bottom. Could be serious upside from Syria. Q3 was a bit of a damp squib but the change of strategy to use N. Sea as income stream to feed more lucrative international ventures looks interesting. If Syria proves-up to expectation there will be more drilling there. It will be interesting to see where else they will bag some acreage. The SP track SHOULD be up from here, but with Stratic you never know. This SP would give a good entry point for any dithering investors, I can only see upside from here. The Canuk's reckon most of the downward pressure has been Tax-Loss selling, could be change in direction any time soon, and Syria results early Jan2010. IMHO/DYOR Geo

Turkey looks like a hit. Extract below: Exploration/Appraisal and Pre-Development Assets Crawford field development plan - alternative development concept utilizing jack-up drilling unit with production facilities on deck being considered; sanction of project deferred until 2010, pending completion of ongoing pre-development study work Bowmore - well suspended in August as a 'tight hole' for commercial reasons; further well on the licence planned in 2010 Al Tayr 101 exploration well (Stratic operator) spudded in Syria in October and currently operating satisfactorily at 1900 metres, with TD at 3000 metres expected early in the New Year West Ayazli exploration well in Turkey spudded in October and currently operating at TD. Novel low cost completion planned to facilitate early production of Kusuri gas bearing sands ........ This also suggests a Bowmore sidetrack???..... IMHO/DYOR - geo

The SP is largely dictated by Canada, Stratic are listed there as SE with no full stop. The UK volumes are normally very low but Stratic trade an average of c. 400K shares per day there. I give links earlier to get to the TMX site and BB's in Canada. Best of Luck to you with your investments. IMHO/DYOR - GeoChem.

Nice of you to drop by! I cannot give you advice on investment, should not and would not. Stratic are certainly not liked at the moment but I still view a lot of potential here. Some of this is dependent on the oil price, I am bullish on this over the next few years but the short term is not good. I dont see how production levels now are adequate for when the world economies start to recover so I see a return to circa $95/BBl and higher. Stratic are focussed on North Sea, they are unlikely to find an elephant field, very unlikely..... but the North Sea is a safe and stable region which gives good margins to operators. I hold Elephant hunters like PVR and SEY on the odds-bet that if they find they will rocket, and if they dont there is minimal downside, and baby-steps company builders like SE. I am hopeful that Stratic might build SP value nicely over the next couple of years but I have been wrong before. I think W. Don production is gradually being improved, there is a chance of some success between Turkey/Syria and that Crawford may move forward in 2010. There are also wildcards in Cairngorm and Bowmore [which I dont view as dead yet]. The folks at the top here are ex-Enterprise oil and I am confident they know what they are doing... however markets are impatient and over-react to hiccups, certainly today, the SP for stratic looks very attractive at these levels but I cannot use a crystal ball to tell you when OR if things will improve, this one is very much a DYOR-Geo

two quiet days trade after the strange day, looks like a false alarm on the T-O possibility.... Q3 results & Analysis Nov 30th, link to web conference available for those who hunt it down. There are some hopes of information on Turkey & Syria as well as a cross-the-board update on all operations. GLA, IMHO/DYOR - Geo

Over 1.5Million shares traded in Canada, this is speculation but on the basis that Turkey is unlikely to be significantly material, unless there is something in the deep zone entirely unexpected, Syria is long way from TD, W. Don is chugging on weakly with reserves mark-down, Longannesi sale did not inspire... by a process of elimination this seems to leave pre-amble to a take-over as the only plausible reason for the massive volumes..... any thoughts or comments out there????? - Will watch TMX carefully this PM. IMHO/DYOR - Geo

Massive buying in Canada, huge volume before lunchtime in Canada, over 600K already.... all kinds of rumours on the BB's but nothing firm.... ???????? What is happening? Anyone in UK have any ideas? IMHO/DYOR - Geo