The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
...... were a flop I think they would roll it over to the first bidder, the people involved here want to be a Cairn/Dana/HOIL/Tullow sized oil company, I dont think they want to be on the outside of the big game much longer... they need a company building find, a one hit wonder... then they can go after some more prime real estate without having to do an Oliver for partners each time they get a concession.
..... in reality, if KRG does not come in they are dead. Madagascar is a terrific prospect but they will have no money to move forward with and their cashflow is poor for the size they are, Madagascar is ultra deep water the development will cost mega-bucks, too rich a game for SEY.
..... got the map saved, the neighbours are DAna and VSt/Nico, Vst are minnows though Canuks, they are a no-way, but Nico are huge and the minor partner with VST... it would be a good fit for them. Dana could be the other party, i tipped them to a family friend about 10 years ago... they were 34p at the time... if I had only bought a few hundred!!!!
would fit, they have most of their stuff in ****stan, next door almost. Does not have to be a UK company though, the Canuks all like KRG, in the US Devon have not made a big aquisition..... too many possibilities without a clue, think you were in SQZ, their CEO said their bankers would back an aquisition as I recall, bit odd though as their MCap is about the same as SEY, they are Canuk though so they could fit if they had the dosh but they would have to borrow a lot, didn't some mention ... was it Afren, as they have lots of W.Africa and Chin would fit in along with the GAbon/Nigeria stuff???
There are others with the clout and dosh who have not bought anything yet, Hardy and Cairn maybe.
.... just took over Genel Energi in turkey, think they will be out of readies. Addax is GONE, part of Sinopec any day, they will not be doing deals whilst in an accepted bid situation, material change and all that.
The other farm-in is KNOC I think which is either the Kurdistan Nat oil Co or the Korean National oil co, there is another KNOC though I think, Kuwait, one of the companies I worked for back in the 80s did a project for KNOC.
..... rules are just being used as a smokescreen I feel, I think they are through their troubles but while that was going on it was of USE not to keep issuing statements, besides which it supported the SP through the worst, it held up the SP as there was always a chance of an out of the blue deal turning up.
..... do you say that it was not an institution, does something show on your L2?? Geo
.... a 1 mil go through today, I think it might be DOB, he has been quiet for a few months now, no RNS's, we will see if one pops out tomorrow as I think he has to declare all changes in ownership at this level... correct?
I think that there are a bunch of bargain hunters sniffing around who think they can get a cheap buy with SEY. The Belgrano could have been a proxy for BP, arms length ownership until they settle position in Iraq and then a pre-arranged deal with their S. American proxy. HOIL is gone now it has taken over the Turkish, Addax gone, probably Sinopec as they swallowed them whole, tooo many ripples. Premier are no-no as they used up the kitty on Oilexco and are still digesting. Tullow or similar a possibility, Dana I think has been mentioned, this kind of size the medium sized high SP independent I think is the most likely. The very Bigs, well SEY is too insignificant to get the markets attention UNLESS they decide they really need KRG asset, some must be starting to think that way with the Iraq auction failure. Geo
meself, old tradition, kids to bed, glass of vino but they are all older now, one gone to Uni, one going, daughter out giving dancing display with the boss in audience. Geo
Don't know where that one came from but he is using some of the right terminology and I think is oil from his run-off of the software, did not show his calcs for value/MCap/Share vol to justify price claims though, been meaning to work that one through, did a while ago but the stock count keeps getting higher, pin-the-tail on the donkey job with SEY. Geo
We all keep saying three... any evidence? Geo
went over to GKP for a bit old techSupport, someone BSing over there. SE. on a slight retrace though it did full days volume in first hour. As for SEY, don't think this rise has anything to do with T-O or placing, or financing being cleared.... think it's GKP. I looked at 13p but did not like the bosses weird trust fund deal and some of the other vibes, put my chips on SEY as my KRG play, did not realise that the drill would be SO delayed.. bummer. No, there are a lot of small PI's have dobled/tripled on the KRG play there and are now looking for the next pony, it's SEY. I have looked at all the KRG players, 1 I cannot find, all the rest are high buy-ins. Besides, as we all have evaluated, SEY is hugely undervalued, so the best way to play the KRG at the lowest cost/risk is SEY. Geo
Talking about SE., there is now a group of nervous investors who are worried that the well should have TD'd by now and that there is no news. This is normal and will probably induce enough selling to "wobble" the SP but nothing has changed and the situation is in reality on track. 2-4 weeks and all will be clear. The canuk boys have said that it was over-bought at 43c and would be bound to retrace, they are right. This is typical "while drilling" volatility with the herd instinct added. You need to be a little patient here. - Geo
There have always been some strange days with SEY, false rallies, this could be DOB who may again have been excluded from the placement discussions and in pique has gone and bought yet another chunk. There are a whole range of issues here: 1. - Placement could be defensive to render a share buy takeover impossible. 2.- They could be just too tight on the Borrowing base, but this is dubious as they would have come up with this right after the AGM, not now, at the last minute. 3.- They might now know they need another 5mil to test Sangaw, probably early 2010 so they are getting the funding through the books now to ensure their funding as they cannot trust the banks anymore. 4.- Their could at last be a serious T-O offer, SEY want to hold on past Sangaw as the value would be triple... remember they are all S/H on the board. 5.- The chinese may be coming, having bought Addax, they have all the data and dont just want 20%. At the end of the day, I am fully commited here with ~20% of my portfolio[initialy]... others have moved on since, here... I will play out till the end as I would rather lose it than settle for 10%. - Geo
Frankly I find it hard to credit that this Luckya knows anything, the meeting with the board, America meetings, hot line to the president is all BS, Claims has XXXK £ in SEY, if thats the case why post on a BB, if its true it is Insider trading so why throw it all out there??? There are also too many names cropping up here that I have seen before in some of my shares... stirrers. I think a few people have jumped in at 3.5p and are now worried about their 500 quid going down the swanee and think they can whip up a rally, as you both know, with SEY and the volumes involved it is just not credible to do that. - IMHO/,,Geo
I am not sure just what to post on this,.... the T-O is a real possibility but would have to be above 6p, the minimum "hold" SP of all the major players is above 4.5p having checked through all the trade/hold records for about the last 4 years or so. You need to remember that I came in Sept last year-ish and paid 6.3p when it looked a bargain coming off 17p... Gartmore/Invesco/Capital/Ruffer were all big holders at that time. Yes the placements have diluted, but not getting them below 4.5p. The Argie offered 3p I understand from the press and was sent away with a flea in his ear. BUT... the whole situation with GKP may have made one of the biggies look for a buy to get a KRG license, BP would be possible as they got the single deal from the Iraq CG and so dont need to worry about upsetting them anymore, also shell/exxon both walked away from the production sharing deal as there was nothing in it for them. They are not interested in $2 per barrel, they want at least 50% of the $85 p/b. If it is a serious take-over. no way less than 6p/sh IMHO.
With regard to all the other conversations that have been placed and avoiding anything showing on the sidebar, evening folks, SEY issues, to much froth over there right now with too many newbies rampers/derampers and pratts. There is no way on gods green they can issue 5bil shares, they may as well pull the flush, ther could not be take-up as the paper would be worthless, it's just like the macro-economy, HMG cant just print 500bil pounds and put it out there, the economy would be shot. I think all the speculation is just that. Geo... anyone there?