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something big happening in Canada - http://cxa.marketwatch.com/tsx/en/market/quote.aspx?symbol=SE&x=10&y=9 http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=13216&pt=m&category=A GLA - Geo
2 big buys today, 100K & 154K shares, RNS cannot be far away now. We should know in the next few days where this is headed, 1p down or 4p up would be my guess. Oil Price should help Stratic with W. Don producing below expectation. I still think this will work out with a little more time. Best of Luck Larney. - Geo
I think SE. owe holders an update now as the well is far past it's prognosed TD. The longer this goes on the more damage is being done to the SP, its not dropping more now as it is in the basement anyway but holders need to see some value here, Canada trades are very volatile at the moment, volumes have been high and money-flow is shown as positive since the tax-loss selling stopped. These are optimistic signs in some ways but there is still this nagging doubt, I imagine they are going to bundle the debt re-scheduling news with Syria to soften the blow if this one is another dog. As Larney posted, not many rolls of the dice left here, frustrating for long-term holders. SE are showing a track record of non-delivery on too many projects, Cairgorm/Bowmore, poor performance on Don, Assets sold and gone.... where to now???? IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Tax loss selling in Canada, this SP is basement now. All holders need to cross fingers & toes for Syria. If Syria is no-go there looks little hope for a SP recovery here... interesting RNS from EnCore yesterday though..... SE have to be looking more vulnerable to a T-O take-out if things keep going this way. We need a break. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
The only words I can offer is that I view the SP just about as low as it can go. On that basis, you would have to view the upside potential of a syria success as weak, there are a range of opinions that syria is not material, rather like the Turkey well success has had no major impact. I tend to differ in that Syria offers a 10-20% chance of turning in a very upside result c.400BCF and an outside chance of a curve-ball result, oil/high CGR gas or a bigger than prognosed find.... it is interesting that the SE long term strategy has moved to syria, perhaps that itself conveys something [listen to Q3 presentation]. My main optimism for SE is that they will sort out W. Don in conjunction with Petrofac and get to target production+ giving them the cash-flow to seek drilling success, as such I am looking 5 years out rather than the quick upswing of a syria result, this is in part premised on a return to higher oil/gas prices which I view as inevitable. You can look at the SP plots yourself, Bowmore potential pushed the SP to about 24p, that was without even a known outcome. I suffer from over-loyalty, I tend to keep faith with my initial research and strategy, SE has on this basis rather under-performed my expectations soI am loathe to give you any advice. All I will say is that my current mantra is that you have to get a change in luck at some point with the drillbit, SE have had a run of duds by current evaluation [jury still out on Bowmore in my view]. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Syria?... mostly 10K type blocks, is there a news leak? Geo
over 900K on Venture.... Massive trading for SE which is normally 400K per day. geo
massive volume!!!! - Canada..... 800K in first hour trading.....somethings cooking????? http://cxa.marketwatch.com/tsx/en/market/quote.aspx?symbol=SE&x=14&y=13 IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Another big volume day in Canada, two buys >200K shares before 11am.... looks like major investors think this is the bottom. Could be serious upside from Syria. Q3 was a bit of a damp squib but the change of strategy to use N. Sea as income stream to feed more lucrative international ventures looks interesting. If Syria proves-up to expectation there will be more drilling there. It will be interesting to see where else they will bag some acreage. The SP track SHOULD be up from here, but with Stratic you never know. This SP would give a good entry point for any dithering investors, I can only see upside from here. The Canuk's reckon most of the downward pressure has been Tax-Loss selling, could be change in direction any time soon, and Syria results early Jan2010. IMHO/DYOR Geo
Turkey looks like a hit. Extract below: Exploration/Appraisal and Pre-Development Assets Crawford field development plan - alternative development concept utilizing jack-up drilling unit with production facilities on deck being considered; sanction of project deferred until 2010, pending completion of ongoing pre-development study work Bowmore - well suspended in August as a 'tight hole' for commercial reasons; further well on the licence planned in 2010 Al Tayr 101 exploration well (Stratic operator) spudded in Syria in October and currently operating satisfactorily at 1900 metres, with TD at 3000 metres expected early in the New Year West Ayazli exploration well in Turkey spudded in October and currently operating at TD. Novel low cost completion planned to facilitate early production of Kusuri gas bearing sands ........ This also suggests a Bowmore sidetrack???..... IMHO/DYOR - geo
The SP is largely dictated by Canada, Stratic are listed there as SE with no full stop. The UK volumes are normally very low but Stratic trade an average of c. 400K shares per day there. I give links earlier to get to the TMX site and BB's in Canada. Best of Luck to you with your investments. IMHO/DYOR - GeoChem.
Nice of you to drop by! I cannot give you advice on investment, should not and would not. Stratic are certainly not liked at the moment but I still view a lot of potential here. Some of this is dependent on the oil price, I am bullish on this over the next few years but the short term is not good. I dont see how production levels now are adequate for when the world economies start to recover so I see a return to circa $95/BBl and higher. Stratic are focussed on North Sea, they are unlikely to find an elephant field, very unlikely..... but the North Sea is a safe and stable region which gives good margins to operators. I hold Elephant hunters like PVR and SEY on the odds-bet that if they find they will rocket, and if they dont there is minimal downside, and baby-steps company builders like SE. I am hopeful that Stratic might build SP value nicely over the next couple of years but I have been wrong before. I think W. Don production is gradually being improved, there is a chance of some success between Turkey/Syria and that Crawford may move forward in 2010. There are also wildcards in Cairngorm and Bowmore [which I dont view as dead yet]. The folks at the top here are ex-Enterprise oil and I am confident they know what they are doing... however markets are impatient and over-react to hiccups, certainly today, the SP for stratic looks very attractive at these levels but I cannot use a crystal ball to tell you when OR if things will improve, this one is very much a DYOR-Geo
two quiet days trade after the strange day, looks like a false alarm on the T-O possibility.... Q3 results & Analysis Nov 30th, link to web conference available for those who hunt it down. There are some hopes of information on Turkey & Syria as well as a cross-the-board update on all operations. GLA, IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Over 1.5Million shares traded in Canada, this is speculation but on the basis that Turkey is unlikely to be significantly material, unless there is something in the deep zone entirely unexpected, Syria is long way from TD, W. Don is chugging on weakly with reserves mark-down, Longannesi sale did not inspire... by a process of elimination this seems to leave pre-amble to a take-over as the only plausible reason for the massive volumes..... any thoughts or comments out there????? - Will watch TMX carefully this PM. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Massive buying in Canada, huge volume before lunchtime in Canada, over 600K already.... all kinds of rumours on the BB's but nothing firm.... ???????? What is happening? Anyone in UK have any ideas? IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Some news on the Turkey well should be coming in about ten days time. At this low SP holders hope a good piece of news here might present a boost. Good Luck all. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Did not see this coming. Mainly the Canuk corporates seem to view the Italian sale as a disister and have sold off as this asset was on balance sheet at c.150mil where they got only c.50mil. I am quite happy to see debt paid down and no development commitments but the final nail seems to be performance at W.Don which is not inspirational. It would seem we are in the hands of Ptrofac there, this project does not seem to be a good advert for their project managemant/duty holder operations. Regardless of these negatives, this SP makes SE. a very attractive entry point and there is still potential upside from Turkey, Syria and resolving issues at W.Don.... and I am optimistic on the oil price helping out here too.. good luck to all holders, we could do with a bit of good luck for a change, the stats are on our side at least!!!! IMHO/DYOR ... GLA - geo
RNS out, Italy sale. Thanks GedW for posting that, saw the mystery SP rise and checked, nice to see that SE. listen to the holders and issue a RNS when material information is in the Public Domain. Should be news on Turkey in the next two/three weeks and a Syria update could be before end 2009. The Canuk boys reckon SE. are using a better rig on Al-Tayr which should put them in front of prognosis. With a tailwind on results, Stratic could just get on the move SPwise over the next few weeks, especially with this cash inflow sale. You have posted often in the past GedW, nice to see some of the old names crop up here, gives me some confidence that I am not alone in feeling that this outfit is undervalued. IMHO/DYOR, all the best - Geo
As Petrofac have commented on W. Don the canadian boards are indicating an RNS should be out any day to update investors on progress there, as the Petrofac report is now public domain, seems reasonable to me that a confirmatory RNS should be on it's way. Some news today of tensions in Syria though, should not affect the Syria drill with any luck. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
From Petrofac report today [22-10-09]. In Energy Developments, water injection has now commenced on the West Don field, Don Southwest water injection is due to come onstream before the end of the year and gas lift facilities have been commissioned and are currently being optimised. Intervention work on the completion blockage on one of the two production wells on the Don Southwest field will commence shortly, and while the outcome of this work will impact the level of production for the year, we expect total 2009 production to be within the 3 million to 5 million barrel range previously guided, albeit towards the lower end. We now have water injection which will improve production rates and a suggestion that gas lift is there too. The damage at SW Don does not affect Stratic, indeed it may help as the unit is currently export constrained due to one of the MOL pumps being down. This would allow more capacity for W. Don which would give improved returns to Stratic. Another good news story for SE. as the two exploration wells progress in Syria and Turkey. IMHO/DYOR - Geo