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2 Drills started syria & turkey, Longanessi sale soon, good production rising on W. Don with good oil price prognosis, sidetrack on Bowmore to get real pay-sand next year... cairngorm & Crawford development 2010, even the SP starting to move back..... very strong indicators for SE. in 2010. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
I know about AST, actually worked with Jeremy many years ago. I had them on the possibles list a year ago but I really think I missed the boat and think their SP has everything built in already. It is all pretty much small stuff for them, no elephants, but they seem to be building revenue generators to allow them to move on to bigger adventures in a few years... I keep an eye on their forward plans, the swiss stuff intruiges.. Have not come across AUL but will take a peek. By the way, AST is an operation of the aussie guy who caused all the pain at CNR, Steinpries... thats another reason why I am a bit wary. Just at the moment I have pulled a few investments back to cash, a lot of talk of a retrace in Sept/Oct, just holding and watching SE in Canada, try to get the bottom, I am aiming for 24c, also watching IFR for if they hit 5c or less... I like their NWT stuff for the long term. Saw you were chatting on Oil price over the way, I am pretty sure $95/BBl is going to show up through the winter, the investor village SE page has an interesting one on that, DOE have significantly downgraded world supply, fits with what I know, many projects stalled, big supply gap coming..2012 my guess, possible $250/BBl, need to make sure I keep a good stock of oilies. - Geo
Interesting times for Stratic, Tried to buy a big block at 24c in Canada last night - did not go through, 28c was the floor & it rose at the end of trade. As for the other SE?... I am following the same strategy as you though I think ~5p is possible at end of week. Have done my calcs & I reckon the 1.3p stock is not worth the worry. My guess is that if I can sell close to 5p I will be able to buy back in at circa 3p when the dive happens, 2 for 5.... maybe better. This is a risk, but I think an educated gamble. I have not changed my position that I want to be in SEY in Q4, I still think Sangaw is transformational. I have another one like SEY which is for 2010, you might want to have a look and think about "bottom-draw"ing a few for mid 2010. It's PVR, Providence Resources, they are Elephant Hunting with Exxon off Ireland next year, 3p stock, v.big upside potential but a lot like SEY... if you DYOR you will see what I mean. I have had some back-pocketed for about six months, its just starting to flicker so have a looksee. SE. will come good mid-year to end I think, I will continue to hold/build during this downside period. Agree, ... steering clear of the SEY board until the big top comes down.... still watching though. All the best... Geo
Been in SEY for over a year... still in and staying... look at the TMX-money site for stockcodes WZR and VST and see what they did yesterday & over week-month... then form your own opinion. There is a link to the TMX site on one of the prior posts for stock codes IFR or SE, just retype the new codes and look. - DYOR/IMHO - geo
Webcast on Friday, 1530hrs. Link available through the last SE RNS. Might be worth a listen. Who knows on Bowmore, but Canuk's reckon gooood news on Longanasi sale and Syria spud along with good financials and forward plans for 2010. Increased my holding over the last few weeks with more in canada, see where this shakes out over the next few weeks before deciding if I will back more into SE. For those, of SEY inclinations, take a look on the TMX site at what VST & WZR did yesterday..... WOW. acually went in to buy but they had both gone WHOOOOSH... lets see if they drift back... WZR news due in Nov. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
.......SE ............Y... really not the place to do this but it is nice and private mikey, cannot understand why more people dont like good ol SE... but, SEY, this is situation is very tenuous right now, I think there is a GKP factor, buyers wanting in on KRG chance, and also there is some new BIG buying which may be to get the 1.3p stock. There is also the new Investors. Once the X-date is gone I can see a WHOLE lot of selling here, possible uber-spike before the X-day. Clearly SEY are protected by our USSR amigo until 30-12, I imagine that news out of KRG will by then make the SP unassailable for a cheapo T-O... but if they get their timing wrong???, what if inside people stall the rig, Sinopec/KNOC/Rus&Beardy... vulnerable. The SP is going to be a balancing act between the sell after X-date and the KRG spud nearing.. so, severe volatility - lets face it, even with these big buys, there will be mountains of shares after dilution. And then, what if DOB decides to fold his hand, or one of the other primaries, Ruffer/Gartmore, some must be considering with about 50% profit on a lot of their recent bought stock. So too many imponderables here. Despite the fact I would like to come back in fully, these prices are a NO for me and I will wait for another "fall" oportunity, if there isn't one, then I am quids in with what I have retained anyway. Disregarding the money, its a fairground ride anyway!! - IMHO/DYOR - Geo
I can only see this ending in T-O, but it should be good for holders anyway, though not as good as GKP...40p today, had them on my buy list at 13p... bummer. Use this as drop box for any messages as I am staying off the SEY BB until I have a better understanding of what is going on here.. very uncertain at the moment. I still have my funds from my 3.05 sale sitting on the sidelines as I can see being able to buy back-in my 50% I sold at below 3p in the near future, this volume has to die off at some point. - Cheers - Geo
all seem to be going very well here, might just be time to take some of the profit though as it is hard to tell how much of the well results are factored in here at this SP. All of the Canuk posters seem to be taking that strategy and after my bad experience in TRP it is probably prudent. Without a doubt though, I see SE. as one of my crown jewels with real prospects of long term growth so I will keep my core holding no matter what. -Geo IMHO/DYOR
I tend to think, looking at this guy's history, he is a marriage broker, he takes a big stake, finds a T-O partner through contacts, does the deal and pockets mega$... then moves on to the next target taking his pets with him. Really just Asset stripping but very smart. He has clearly seen the unrecognised value in SEY - Sangaw - and has decided to steer the ship in the desired direction [Beardsal]. Interesting the connection with Dana if you recall my musings of a few days ago about potential buyers..... thoughts?? IMHO/DYOR - Geo... kind of regret selling 50% at 3.05p now.... shows what I know.
...... to be talking about this here as there are too many "nutters" over at the main board, Mikey ... I agree with most of what you say but I just feel there will be way too many shares in circ. If the full 4.X Billion pop out that is a more than 100% dilution. To be honest, my plan was to see the SP go to 6p on spud and ditch 50% to be "free-ride" into the result, but this placement is going to scupper that. So, as I said, I had too much committed into SEY, I will see how I am place comes the 2:9 offer, if at 1.4p then funds permitting I will take these which will diute my 3p midprice lower.... but, there is a lot can happen with SP tween now & then. There is no way I would buy more above 2p... been through the heartbreak for a year. Come Sangaw I will settle for a small windfall in some shape or form and avoid the potential disaster of a bust at Sangaw, If the price goes the right way I will free-ride for a smaller chunk. I think this is a case of sit back & watch for a few weeks now, things can go either way. All the best when you pick up the post, regards to you spooni too. - IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Sorry gents, had to do some of that work stuff & other obligations, been out of the fray in general. Slimmed down on SEY, I think the placement is going to knock things a bit, back to the mid-2's I would guess. As I always said, I was imbalanced on SEY as I was forced to buy extra shares to get my average down to 3p from 6.3p. They really are sneaky monkeys, they are timing the issue for spud, I think that will mean that you won't get the normal pre-spud/spud rise in value, and over 4bil shares, once the day traders get there hands on that much liquidity it is just going to bounce in a range like a yo-yo, so I think it's S-or-Bust on Sangaw. The quantity I left in is enough for a hit and will not more than sting if its a bomb... so thats fine. As for SE. , expect some weakness over the next week or so, Canuks are saying no news until the testing is done. The prognosis is good on all fronts so no worries, just patience. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
....... of serious action in the trenches over at IFR, more than full days volume in first two hours. http://cxa.marketwatch.com/tsx/en/market/quote.aspx?symbol=IFR&x=11&y=10 The SE board over at Investor village, see earlier link, has some interesting speculation and is worth a read for those inclined to SE. {SE without full stop, in Canada} here, brkers report suggests NAV at CAD$ 3.00 and suggests Bowmore news soon, one poster even says they are coring. Interesting times ahead with SE. - IMHO/DYOR, Geo
gone... night all - Geo
3 months... 10weeks minimum. They need the pilot hole like GKP, too many variable pressure zones below ~1500ft.
Mikey , there has been no drill - You cannot keep them secret . IT IS impossible. This moves on to the politics of the game, I thought ADDAX were jerking SEYs chains with the rig to weaken and buy, that cannot be the case now, you would think that Sinopec would want a quick result, China is in the fast lane to secure commodities - all of them, metals, energy, primary industries.... Sinopec would want the drill.... so why the delay??????
..... I think will be the givaway, if the price goes up hard on Friday afternoon then I think we will be set for rises through next week. Seen this in Lloyds, once you clear the daytraders out on a steady rising trend the price just meets notional "walls" Xp...X+2p.... each time it clears a block of PI's with a set price target, usually round p's it just pushes up to the next trading range. Got to go-rubbishnight. The wifes back, havnay dun me jobs...!!!!
Is here for a reason, and the fact that he has stayed through all of this means there is a compelling reason... its KRG.
....... is that if we are right and these are corporates, they are not going to just daytrade, they will soak up a lot of the liquidity, as the uncommitted PI's get squeezed out on a rising trend the price should find a "real" level.... thats my hope anyway.
.... looking at the patterns today, corporate/investment houses, they are now viewed as a upside bet..... which I think means the cheque is in the post.
....... you are right there, I reckon maybe a little bit lower after his big buying spree about two-3 months ago, but there is the core issue. Invesco/Ruffer/DOB/Gartmore... all in for what ~90%, all averaging??? 9p???... along comes aperfectly good buyer, all the boys keep their jobs - they have actually done some good deals - get to really do the oil biz, all the big holders - No way at that price.. we lose out boy's, no you get on with it....???