Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Gold and Silver are up yet POLY (and also FRES) are being hammered.
Also the USD/RUB rate is up by nearly 1% which I'm sure means more rubles to the dollar, so costs are down.

Hi pardariff.
Start off with a golden January.
Poly should tear out of the blocks if Gold stays at 1830 US$.
US Markets are open on the 3rd, keep watch on gold. UK back open on the 4th.
Results end of January should be glowing.
Only spanner could be Russia's covid problem.

Hi Tacet.
"A few Divi's". You realise that those dividends that you don't seem to find important, if re-invested would make the same investment of 330p worth 330p + 628 Cents, at USD/GBP rate of 1.36 = 330p + 462p, So a 792p equivalent SP.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/bp-BP./dividends
An investment of £100,000 in 2001 (30,300 shares) would mean you now have over 72,000 shares worth £240,000.
So take the 100 grand back and have a free income of over 8400 a year and rising, lived a fuller life and not had to look at a computer screen more than hour in 20 years concerning that BP investment.

https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/news/events/
24 January, 2021 Exploration Program Results
27 January, Q4 2021 Production Results
02 March, Preliminary Results FY2021

Hi Miss Dollar and All.
Capital Economics price forecasts for 2022
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/clients/publications/commodities-overview
Capital Economics were wrong in 2019, their prediction $200 less than what happened, and in 2021 were spot on about topping at 1900.
https://agmetalminer.com/2020/12/14/gold-has-surged-during-the-pandemic-but-what-does-2021-look-like/
Interestingly in the same article from 2020 Goldman Sachs was way out. I remember an article years ago where someone made more money doing the opposite of all Goldman's forecasts than following their lead.
IMO they are top of the list to promote liquidity to garner their own positions rather than share intentions.
CV-19 recovery will pull gold's position downwards but inflation will push it high.
These low 2022 forecasts tend to make me want to do the opposite, but holding for results in a few weeks here is surely worthwhile since POLY looks to be underperforming with respect to both gold price and currency movements, though Russia is not doing itself any favours geopolitically right now by massing an invasion force, but I'm not certain an SP discount is showing with other Russian companies currently.
A rise towards results could prove to be a good trading option IMO.

Spacehoppa I provided examples. You can argue as much as you like, but the SP fits my explanation, and of course you can use other companies to gauge value. It's done constantly by analysts when looking at sectors and a range of companies within or by choosing a section of companies. You could use the mean or average of the sector if you like. All the same.

SpaceHoppa
'and the market valued Pure at £1.60 a year ago and 39p today.'
Not exactly a settled market though was it. You can tell by the volumes. Retail had been persuaded to provide the liquidity for the few issued with shares to make profits,. I'm sure you are experienced enough to tell when a company is being pumped. It happens enough times on LSE and the like with paid posters, presentations, interviews etc etc.

No chance I can hold RASP with my two brokers.
Sold at 613 yesterday. I have a price target in mind of lower than 550 from recent SP movements to buy back in but it will be interesting to see if the SP weakens more or less due to the possibility of holders preferring to sell Evraz to avoid holding Rasp.
The recent rise in the rasp SP IMO could be overdone and so overly increased the value of Rasp wrt to Evraz.
Or it could all go wrong for my trade and Evraz sails upwards to 700..
Cheers all and GL

Hi All
I've been thinking about this one, so my strategy is to sell today if there is a rise or the SP holds towards ex-div tomorrow then possibly to trade back in at a lower price in Jan.
If the price dips sharply today then I'll hold through.
One thing I note is that RASP also has very high yield so both companies are valued by the market in a similar fashion. The SP has risen very sharply this year. https://uk.investing.com/equities/raspadskaya
I'm easy on this issue though as my average is zero in my ISA and 160p in my SIPP.
Still.. I do love the dividends here.
Cheers all and GL

Spacehoppa
"how do you value that?"
As I've already said. You don't value it at all until it shows itself. That's how the market currently works worth gold miners, as I've already explained from my experience, because if you started pricing in potential and resources then PAF would be 100p, Poly would be 20 quid etc etc. Anything above, as we've already seen with Pure the last two years has involved some ramptastic manipulation to get up liquidity to allows the pigs to firmly feed. Once done, we have a gold mining company producing gold, and they've said exactly how much they'll produce, so the value is per the market, and that's why its at 39p, fair value.
IMO it should be low 30's to be undervalued and become a buy.

FTSE set to open 140 pts lower as I write, so an Omicron Spank to the markets and crypto looks on the cards today.
Gold however is stable at 1800 US$, so more looking like a safe haven as each day passes. Miners would do well today to stay the same if the rest of the market goes down.
POLY being marked down currently so SP here could even correct upwards .. We want, we'll see.
Cheers all and GL ))

https://youtu.be/s1sZxcWSgAs?t=809
Watch from 13:29
Decent analysis and food for thought.
Bitcoin Vs Gold : Gold has won IMO. This trader is bullish on gold with some good reasoning, especially pointing out that the big rally in gold in the 70s came a few years into the high inflation. It would be good to see those bitcoin billions flow into gold/silver and make the price have big swings upwards.

Thanks kenj, It's good to see those trader accounts accepting the 10%. I'm still yet to complete that form and pester ii.

Spacehoppa.
I think you missed the point. Pure already trades at a huge premium to PAF's equivalent, more than 100%!! PAF's vast reserves serves just an example of how the market generally doesn't care about what's in the ground or potential. It's about what's being produced, and the CEO has stated the very maximum in 2022 is going to be around 60,000 ounces next year.
So the value of the company should reflect a Gold miner producing the ounces in the quarterly reports taken up to an annual rate.
Basically. It's irrelevant if you have a mountain of gold if you can only get a nugget a day, no matter how much you say or want to get more.

IMO The only thing useful in that interview that will drive a valuation, and hence the share price is his target of 1000 tonnes per day, at an average 5g/t (at 31.1g per troy ounce) means a max production in the region of 58000 troy ounces gold per year.

If we are at 40p currently then an uplift could get to 60p, increasing only if the POG gets above $1800.

When you consider that one of the companies I mentioned in my previous post, PAF has reserves of 30 expanding to 40 million ounces in 2022 with measured increasing off 10m, and an equivalent valuation here would put Pure's share price less than 20p, as an example of how the market sees gold miners, then increasing reserves for Pure isn't going to do anything to the SP, unless they show that they can turn it into gold, and from that interview, it's not happening in 2022.

All IMO

BuggertheBanks, I'm right, and also being pretty cautious only estimate $500 profit per ounce.
The measured resource is 500,000 ounces, which would last 20 years at 25k oz a year, or 6m tonnes processing a year would mean the measure and indicated of 83.5m tonnes lasting 14 years.
"25-30k ounces of gold by processing 6 million tonnes (Mt) of tailings per annum over a mine life of 15 years
Measured 48.5Mt 0.32 g/t 15,542 Kg 500 koz"

Also... The news sneaked in at the end about annual production increasing is good but Mintails still has a fence to climb over.

Pan African expects to produce circa 105,000oz (2021: 98,386oz) of gold during the first six months of the 2022 financial year, ending December 2021, representing a 6.7% production increase relative to the corresponding period.

Judgement on the legal action has now been received, and Mintails will remain in provisional liquidation. Pan African remains optimistic on the Mintails transaction’s potential, and will now engage with the provisional liquidator on progressing the transaction, as well as continue with the finalisation of the DFS.

Hi TDT and All.
Gold miners are struggling in valuations at the moment, but generally they are making money hand over fist with low or no debt and high gold prices, which despite inflation going potty is seen by the market as going lower in the coming months / years. Pure has been hyped up by all and sundry since 2020 but now come back down to earth.

IMO When the gloss of gold has gone from the market then it matters less what's in the ground, it's about what's being produced.

A simple like for like valuation of a gold miner, Pure, producing 38000 ounces per year vs PAF for example producing 195k oz MC £324m, or POLY 1600k oz MC £5,949m, then Pure's equivalent MC would be £63m with an SP of 14p or £141m with an SP of 32p.

Yes it's a tad simplistic, and the cry's of "But it's in Canada and they will produced more and more", "Those are dividend shares, Pure will not be paying them" or "You can't compare production, it's about profit per ounce" then just add a premium, which at 40p is currently 25% above the simple market valuation comparison to POLY.

With sentiment so sour and directors selling IMO less than 35p could be a good entry.

The divi is intended to keep us interested.
Only problem I can see coming would be that when it comes to sell the Coal company shares, these could get marked down and go for cheap because the market will see a rush of sales.
Reason to keep if possible is the prospect of dividends comprising 100% of cash flow.
I wonder why RASP isn't launched with listings on other exchanges instead of only Moscow.

Another amazing deal for PAF.
Fag Pack...
15 years producing 25k ounces profit making only $500 per ounce : 15 x 25000 x 500 = $187,500,000 in profits.
Bought for $6.9m.
They could basically get these tailings projects from spending just the blueberry farm profit.

Fantastic news )) Maybe Roman Abramovich wants a new player at Chelsea during the January transfer window.

So far I've been paid for my holdings with EQi, but not with Interactive Investor, ii.co.uk.