RE: Production report12 Jan 2022 07:18
Hi All.
I'm hoping to promote a discussion about the upcoming results and what might be.
IMO there will be a swift increase to over 1500p here.
I did some "back of a fag pack" calculations.
So, simply expanding the 9 month results of presented in the last quarter of 2021 we get Revenue $2790m.
This expansion applied to 2020 would have made a full year revenue of $2692m, but was actually $2865m.
So the same uplift in 2020 applied to 2021 would imply revenue of $2969m
This ignores the new mine at Nezhda and the projected extra 30,000 ounces of gold expected to be produced, which could add more than $50m. It also ignores any significant hike in debt repayment as these may come from the new mines actually funded by the debt increase.
The dividend so far in 2021 is $0.45, August 2021, half year earnings $1274m.
However. The half yearly earnings and revenue for 2020 and 2019 were not exactly half.
2020 half year revenue : $1135m, Full Year $2865m (increase of 26%)
2019 half year revenue : $946m, Full Year $2246m (increase of 18%)
Those same ratios applied to 2021 would make for a full year revenue of between $3000m to $3210m
Average Gold price in 2019 was $1,393.34
2019 Revenue $2245m, Debt $1479m, Earnings $483m, Costs $1762, Dividends $0.82 per share
Average Gold price in 2020 was $1,773.73,
2020 Revenue $2865m, Debt $1351m, Earnings $1086m, Costs $1779. Dividends $1.29 per share
Average Gold price in 2021 was $1,798.89,
So what might be...
2021 Revenue $3000m, Debt $1900m, Costs $1850, Earnings $1150m, Dividends $1.37 per share
A final dividend in March of $0.92.
Fair share price ? 5% Yield 2000p, 6% Yield 1660p, 7% Yield 1428p, 8% Yield 1250p.
My personal target is between 6% and 7%.
What do people think ?
Average Gold Prices 2019, 2020 and 2021 came from this website.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart