Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Wow. I had a lump of cash 2 Mondays ago, which I still have and It's fair to say that I missed the boat when I looked at the SP of 1416, and since I was traveling and busy decided to wait a day or two to see if I could get at 1400. What a bad decision that was.. Usually there is some sort of break, but not with RDSB and the OP rise from $70 to $79, then of course the asset sale as well.
Now looking to re-enter... Does the buyback indicate an opportunity ?
Looking at the buyback transactions, the max RDS paid was 1502p, with most mid 1400s, so perhaps there will be a dip to these levels which they anticipate and they themselves are not buying shares above 1500, also meaning the dividend will not go higher next quarter.
It is either that or it's onwards upwards with higher divs with my current holding, only about 20% of number of shares that I wanted.

Only 13 trades today. A High frequency Trader. Seriously ?
SP in in doldrums here like the other oil companies and probably sentiment due to articles like this.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/9/9/nigeria-struggles-to-find-buyers-for-october-oil-exports
Another case of battening down and reinvesting the divs whist waiting it out.

There is a lot of incorrect things in your post there Visitor.
Their PE is under 6, the figures speak for themselves if you can actually read the recent report.
Incorrect on Evander as well, small part of overall production.
What a bizarre post. I've put you straight on filter.

Hi Brackenheim
PAF - Currently Biggest holding, I've held for many years. Much of my recent BP sales invested here around 16p. P/E < 6, almost debt free. Dividend with impact of net 4.5% this Dec). Fantastic company, expecting bug growth over next 12 months, recommend, risk is being in S.Africa.
EVR - Just paid 6.5 % Dividend, they pay most of cashflow as dividends, twice so far in 2021.
Dividend Shares/Trusts BP, RDS, POLY, SSE, SEPL, Bluefield, AEWUK and two Henderson trusts.
Punt money - DPA very high risk multi-bagger, HZM, GAL, VEL for 50% plus growth

I actually canncelled my DRIP on SSE today before the dividends land tomorrow and likely take the price up. Going to wait to reinvest at a lower price. My investment was so weighty at ex-div my DRIP value is about the same value as my first tranche of SSE shares was. Price is sustaining really well. I'd like to buy again but below 1600.

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/47492-legal-challenge-over-pan-africas-mintails-project-not-a-showstopper-says-loots/

This article about the court case has appeared since the post below but only reiterates what was said in the presentation.

I admire Loot's open book manner of doing things but the inference to me is that the original owners have got dollar signs rolling in their eyes and want a better deal, but this ignores the fact they ran away from cleaning up the environmental mess.
The response by PAF would then be that Mintails SA (Pty) Ltd can only get this mined with PAF's techniques and PAF's obviously great track record of providing well needed jobs, cleaning up environmental mess and provide the cash for the clean up (Blueberry farms and water treatment facilities surely to be in PAF's favour if this becomes political again) and then Mintails SA would be hard challenged to go do it without PAF and have to take (even forced) what's been offered.
Since PAF got the project so cheaply shareholders might not begrudge some extra green to the Mintails SA (Pty) Ltd owners and the "London Investor".
I understand why Loots is confident.

ALL IMO

Sharing some late night research.
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3.sourceafrica.net/documents/118548/Mintails-Organogram.pdf
https://oxpeckers.org/2018/12/mintails-directors-targeted/
"Business rescue" and how Mintails owners ran away from the environmental disaster.
https://oxpeckers.org/2018/08/mintails-collapse/

From oxpeckers:
"Directors of the Australian-owned Mintails face possible criminal charges after a parliamentary investigation found Mintails SA (Pty) Ltd is R460-million short on the money it owes to clean up the environment at its mining operations"

Key people in this issue Dave Lake and Mariette Liefferink.
"After Mintails fought for nearly three years to save the company through business rescue, Dave Lake, the business rescue practitioner, notified the South Gauteng High Court in early August of his intention to liquidate the company. Provisional liquidation was granted on August 17, and a liquidator is expected to be appointed soon." "Lake declined to answer questions about the failed business rescue and the liquidation, but he did pen an opinion column in January 2017 for Moneyweb about the case. In it, he laid out his argument for Mintails’s use of business rescue, saying, “Mintails was sick – but it wasn’t terminal.”...
Mariette Liefferink, the activist chief executive of the Federation for a Sustainable Environment, has tracked Mintails for more than a decade and is now working to intercede in the liquidation proceedings as the legal voice for what she labels the “mute environment”..
Situation has become what Liefferink calls “pass the parcel”, with Mintails playing the part of a “scavenger company”, a term coined by researchers to describe under-resourced outfits that buy the scraps left over from larger mining companies and ultimately abando

https://www.facebook.com/CAMIO2018/
They should have a look at what Pan African Resources are able to do with mining profits. Water cleaning plant, fields of solar panels and a large blueberry farm employing hundreds of locals, created by a modern mining company appreciating that there is now responsibility to restore the land.
IMO The best way to restore the land is to allow Galantas to mine the gold, providing valuable employment and an economic boost to the area and the money to actually do the restorations. Otherwise, the happy duckers will be left with abandoned mines, and land and tailings left to rot away, that is no good for anyone and a drain upon the local economy.
These people will protest everything.
Must be weighing on the SP. Time to buy IMO before drilling results and a likely resource upgrade.
Would like to see more gold being produced and actually appearing obviously in the accounts, especially after declarations of being funded. I hope the new management will not eat away the funds then rinse and repeat, like so many AIM mining companies that seemingly have no actual intention of actually mining rather rinse the value of their resources by issuing shares.

This is running sour. 6.5% to 7% drop from Ex-Div day on a 2.5% impact.
Supports keep being broken next one down is around 1320..
Wait until this eases then decide to average down or sit tight.

Hi Thomo1968
Out of interest what were your main reasons for switching tp BP from RDS ?
I'm currently choosing my moment to buy and hold much more RDS than BP.
My main reason being I see RDS getting back to 2019 levels of divi and SP much sooner than BP will.

Anyone watch the presentation ?
I enjoyed see Cobus take care of all the mining and Deon do all the financials. It may be obvious but so often the money men can become CEO and companies all too often go pear-shaped, similar when operations guys look to do financials.
Buy back will be to take advantage of the low SP whilst PAF is basically raking it in.
The court case problem could be a spanner in the works for Mintails, no details but must be public record somewhere... Mintails is not priced in to the SP yet, only the PFS looking good. I'm sure Deon mentioned a Huge debt facility (£150m) already agreed for Mintails which just shows PAF's current financial strength.
Most of Cobus's holdings seem to be at around 16p, down from when he bought them due to GBP/ZAR rates.
US$/ZAR I hope has based and set to rise, which would make Xmas great.

Wow. It's safe to say Brent broke upwards rather than stayed in its downtrend !
If this keeps up all those same rumours about BP increasing the divi will come around. Blink and you miss it.
Much volatility.
There should be more upward pressure next two weeks with DRIPs, including mine.
At least my hedge trade half worked so far due to other holdings doing well, so plan remains to buy back RDS next dip. Will that be after Witching Day this Friday... ?

Yes PeterH.
Do nothing, no thinking, no work, take no chances, ignore discussions, ignore shared research, and you might get a few % a year. Well not if you bought at 500p, then your'e down by 40% but no problem, at a rising div of 4% a year and some paltry buybacks one may have broken even by 2035. Excellent attitude.
I prefer to make my hard earned capital work properly so I look after it.
Always keep an eye on the markets, which you clearly do as you are posting on here, but scorning discussions and being sanctimonious in ignoring and blindly holding instead. Yes, well done indeed.
I've put you on filter.
Seen two comments from you, both either getting facts wrong or showing conceit over people who are clearly making good returns and thoughtfully sharing their ideas for discussion.

Results are truly great. Divi is just under what I expected, but still very good.
The yield on 16p is 5.7%
IMO This has to prompt a rise in SP towards Ex-Div.

Sits back in chair and smiles at the highlights...

"12.4% increase in Group gold production to 201,777oz 36.0% increase in operating profit to US$128.0 million 14% improvement in all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margin to 30.9% Record profit after tax of US$74.7 million 68.3% increase in earnings per share (EPS) to US 3.87 cents per share and 69.0% increase in headline earnings per share (HEPS) 28.5% increase in final proposed dividend of ZAR402.2 million (or US$28.3million at the prevailing exchange rate) 45.6% decrease in net senior debt to US$33.7 million (2020: US$62.0 million)"

Hi Mark and Mojo
I agree noting the lack of BP progress, as you prob both know already, but I lay the blame squarely at Looney's feet for his market repelling dividend and buyback policy.
I am not fully out but completely top sliced in BP.
Brent's break from its down trend isn't confirmed yet, but also amazed at the lack of positivity given Brent's strength.
The big question is whether the next dip will be just that, a 5%/6%/7% correction for example, or the start of a correction trend that will bring the bears out.

$1800 gold is around 1538 Polymetal. Well on that basis the POLY is undervalued.
The down trend after ex-div has been vicious, but could well be reversing as I type. Gold is edging past $1806.

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-idCNL1N2QF02M

“It looks like oil prices may continue to drift in a consolidation range for now, $70-$75 as we mentioned previously,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore’s OCBC bank.

Should gap up this morning. 300 will be tough to break.

Brent chart shows a possible breakout upside and did do all last week without BP taking the reigns. A drop in oil price, which IMO was going to happen last week, could now be this week, will bring BP down, and the spike on gas also running out of steam. I'm betting bearish on the grounds these factors will be come in play if US inflation worries will hit on Tuesday and the witching hour on Friday will could see a sell off. The following week DRIP will surely be positive.
At the end of the day.. It's like a casino now. All reasoning can be thrown out the window at any time.
Cheers and GL

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Hi Davidspellacy
I think the same. The prices gained could easily mean another interim dividend as they did earlier in the year. Also, there is the coal spin off coming, which will takeaway from the SP but in return we'll get more cash to DRIP back in.
Much of the rise yesterday may have been down to DRIP.

Looks like it IMO and the great results will be a double reason for an uptrend even if the gold price flats.
There has been large peaks in the SP here purely based upon this currency exchange and of course GBP/ZAR.
Here is a chart analysis by capital.com, starts at 40,43.
https://youtu.be/f8htg6nC6_I?t=2443