Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Well this is not going to plan, the only benefit to this will be a few more shares in a DRIP scheme.

Any justification for this in the RNS ? Or is this as I see it, sector wide.

The all important dividend cover is forecast to be c.1.3x - 1.5x for the financial year ending 31 March 2024, which is usually seen as a concern, however along with debt a concern IMO this was priced in already. . Evidently not.

Other sector companies like BSIF and UKW not fairing well too, but I did expect NESF to hold up better due to the great SP support and timely RNS.

Dartron I thought Starmer already pledged huge support to the industry, currently being constrained by some inflexible rules put in place by the current gov.

Currently the SP is pretty much at its all time low, which is unlike some of NESF's peers.

Wait this one out...

Cheers and GL.

After consideration of all and the chart I held through. Results look good !!

Have checked live price but discount to NAV is well over 20%.

Hi Jet, I know.

After seeing UKW slowly drift down over 5% after ex-div, I'm considering the most profitable action will be to sell before ex-div and wait a few weeks before buying them back or increasing holding. Decide tomorrow, the FTSE and wide market I hope will be more stable than today's 1.28% drop as I write.

Such a shame VEL do not seem too interested in retail investors holdings shares.

I would guess that most retail VEL holders don't check their holding or the news each day, especially in August, prime holiday time. I'm sure there would have been many more takers.

Also, the kind of holders that do check their holding daily in August on sites like this are those more likely to sell and take a profit on meaningful news or rises in SP, lowering the number of retail again.

I imagine the new holders must have more than a sniff of the new Stateside deals and projects.

At some point I'd expect a US listing will happen too.

As far as I can quickly tell...

Number of shares before : 36,920,785

Number of shares today : 40,893,368

After 12,500,000 EIS/VCT Placing : 53,393,368.

Adding some of the new cash onto the £25m Market Map estimate,

This now makes for a prospective initial rise in SP to £30m/54m = 55.5p

The dilution of under 3/2 is OK.

BTW

I did sell a portion, £3000 of my holding after the announcement at 41.1 and made 186 shares buying back £3000 worth in the offer.. Ker-ching !

2.08 p

Ex-Div 17th August. A week to buy in. Same day as BSIF.

UKW went ex-div today. Will be interesting to see if sentiment picks up the ex-div drop to where it was. If it does and we're still stagnating low 90s, I'll transfer my stake to here and collect both divs.

The usual promise of loads of "Jam tomorrow". Slightly better drill results on the face of it, no pun intended, but until it's being mined or added 100k ounces to the measured resources, this will not add any real value to the company.

"The Company anticipates mining the high-grade dilation zones and has the goal of monthly production of 1,200 to 1,400 gold ounces....... the Company along with QME are scoping an expansion to the existing permitted mill to increase targeted annual production of 30,000 to 35,000 gold ounces per annum. "

Anyone understand why I'm able to easily sell at 41.1p

Then I can just fill in the form to get them back at 40p... ?

Thats kind of my point Lukee. The Hedges don't last forever, so just exploring our apparent undervalued SP, wrt to how much the gas price could be affecting DEC profit longer term.

Hi Bismark, that could be this week.

Gas up another 3% today, at $2.895 as I write, yet the DEC sell-off overhang is still overhanging here.

Before I dig into the company news/presentations with a pad and pen.

Anyone know a good estimate of the gas price needed to service costs, debt and dividends, putting aside the hedging ?

It's previously been pretty low.

Hi Monkshood.

This is all pretty interesting. 40p is a decent price.

Thinking aloud: If this was all done in one go, there's either great news about the new USA deal being verified and ongoing, or that deal goes pear-shaped but they're 'Alright Jack' financially, jam in the pipeline etc etc.

Both of which we've seen similar whilst investing in AIM shares.

However. The placing is being spread with the main EIS/VCT 12,500,000 conditional to AGM vote August 29th way after our shares have been bought.

IMO this means confidence of the deal must be going ahead must be very high, so some sort of AIM type trading spike could happen to allow liquidity of the placers to take some profit, to happen with an imminent news release.

We'll see.

Are you going to partake ?

It's quite a lot to ask from such a small capper in a short time frame.

Not sure I have the funds available I would otherwise invest if there was more notice.

Yes. The Eksom problem is improving. These were all stage 4s and stage 5s not so long ago. Without calculating, only a few hours a day power cut, most of the week could see 24 hour mining again if their solar power can be stored to be used at night. Could just email and ask them.

https://mydorpie.com/m/?page=loadshedding&suburb=Barberton®ion=Umjindi&province=Mpumalanga

Mixed on this but at least it's all priced in.

Anyone know a good estimate for the average gold price is this time ? $1875 perhaps... Which would make their annual profit around $92m. IMO Given cash flow and the higher gold prices being this side of the year, the dividend around a penny should still be intact.

Eksom have a lot to answer for, the pressure on them must be huge to sort out this mess. It's becoming the best interest of mining share holders / pensions / countries to wade in with aid, politics becoming involved if Russia / China wade in before the west does.

Anyway, with Mintails on the horizon, it's still looking like the current SP should be the start point of a long rise.

53 bid 54 ask.

Most welcome.

FAIR is almost my largest holding these days.

"And yet nobody is buying the stock Gavster...why is that?"

Most likely the usual AIM miner reasons.

The most obvious could be too many share issues so the main way of making profit for the funders / holders of free shares, becomes the company pumping out news, employing rampers and all manner of things to persuade retail investors to buy, thereby allowing the liquidity for sellers to make their profit. The number of examples of this on the LSE and AIM are too numerous to mention.

Personally, I'm good with the fundamentals, they are selling gold at a profit which is miles better than one of those constant 'Jam tomorrow', drilling, potential etc etc companies.

I am however sitting on a loss after those funding antics, and the pumping months ago.

Silly me to get sucked in and spend hard earned profit on a holding here, however I'm confident to bottom drawer them for now and wait for a spike in the future.

Possible news of increased production or such like that could do it, or even a round of funding and one of those mysterious spikes in share price that happen just before a funding round (I say that sarcasticlly).

Cheers and GL.

"I make the profit on production £900,000ish for the quarter and the MCAP £6mill ish.

So profit a little less than 1/6th the MCAP? …"

Correction to this :

The profit shoudl be multiplied by 4 so it is annualised. 900k a quarter is 3.6m a year. So the PE 3.6m profit to 6m MC and is less than 2 !!

Just increased my holding again on this dip to 90p.

My ISA is at 'Peak DEC'.

Hi Both.

Dividend announcement is expected here in the next week or two.

Thanks Agricore for that. Yes I use dividenddata all the time.

I tend to study it most in order of Impact. It's usually a tab when I using my browser for investments.

https://dividenddata.co.uk/exdividenddate.py?m=&fm=&sc=y&st=0

Damofarl

I see your points, however I have a massive distrust of PLC companies and any honesty I see to me is always the exception.

I'm against buybacks as you know because to me they all simply provide the liquidity for sellers, be it directors that want to sell allotted shares before they are declare as or allowing their city mate holders to sell out without crashing the SP.

I do however see the point that if a large seller was outing here, then the buyback would be buying larger chunks and regularly.

I also expect the pound to weaken against the dollar, in fact I'm still surprised by its current strength. Both arguments for strength (interest rates) and weakness (inflation) currently exist to compound us further.

I've recently increased here and also in TORO which I know you're also invested in, as the discount to NAV there has extended and the same arguments exist for a fall against the Euro.

Dividend announcement due in the next week or three. 2.0875p expected and should provide some boost.

IMO Nothing to suggest any large problems, more an adjustment of yield by the market or poorer sentiment to the sector perhaps.

Directors recently bought in the 102.s.

I've increased my holding recently in the low nineties but still underwater since buying low 100s in a couple of accounts.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1014840/nextenergy-solar-fund-hikes-dividend-target-1014840.html

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1018207/nextenergy-solar-pens-higher-generation-and-earnings-in-2023-1018207.html

Hi LTI

The wait could be a long time indeed for gilt yields to lower, however if the dividends are secure here all continues to be well, and as you imply, income investors will not likely care of a rise, but I'll certainly top slice with an SP back in the 90s.

8 grand is more like Big Jobs !

Strange it's listed as unknown as it was clearly done above the 45p ask.

The number of trades are minimal but surely the number of sellers at these prices is even fewer.

I would expect the news of FAI approval to spark buys and a spike up.

Only a handful of buyers would move the price it seems.