Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Neither am I but the chats can still be read, as they can be here.

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/velocity-composites-VEL/share-chat

Hi All, from what I see with in the US legislation, DEC pays tax on their buyback of 1%. From a UK Listed company and holder is concerned, if the company is American enough to be subject to dividend taxes then they must be subject to US buyback taxes of 1%.

From our standpoint 1% on top of 81p is still very cheap so why aren't they going all out with the buyback ?

Is it either cashflow, in which case why announce it in the first place, or they do not see the SP as a bargain ?

The intention of the current US Governement to raise tax on share buybacks to 4% surely increases thje urgency for DEC to get a move on.

Buyback rules and 1% : https://www.bakerbotts.com/thought-leadership/publications/2022/september/new-1-excise-tax-on-stock-buybacks-by-publicly-traded-corporations

Proposed Buyback increase to 4% : https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/news/proposed-4-percent-tax-on-stock-buybacks-faces-hurdles/

Cheers all and GL

Interesting few posts on ADVFN today.

Weakness of the SP should be short lived if there's some completion of the deal.

We wait..

Another good factsheet with no alarm bells and doesn't give away any details we really want to know.

32.5% discount to NAV. Roll on the dividend.

I've replied, same board.

Reported it twice...

This is the research that led to the Bloomberg Report.

https://youtu.be/6c-WCg2Y7sE

Couple of things about this, putting the leaks into perspective should be this piechart showing the levels of different methane emissions to the air.

https://www.socalgas.com/stay-safe/methane-emissions/sources-of-methane-emissions

Also, with a million views what effect has this had to shareholders. To the institutions not very much I would think, after all they still hold tobacco companies.

I couldn't find any reference to The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission as you stated...

Are they outright lying... Yes and No. For me it's akin to the sprinkling of magic honesty dust my accountant does for me each year.

If the government takes away the subsidy/tax breaks and replaces with legislation like high compulsory plugging standards then alarm bells will ring, and that 15 years will be reduced. In the meantime, the company will do all it can to keep everyone sweet with the dividends rolling, the employment of local people, payment of income taxes etc etc IMO.

The company is no different to any other corporation that puts shareholders above literally everything.

The extension of the life to 50/70 years conveniently declared by their own scientists delays the cost. I take this to mean that the intended lifetime of the company is in the region of 15 to 20, by which time all the economics will have been rinsed by shareholders and ultimately any wells still leaking by then will become the responsibility of the various respective states (hence the name of that video "it will be failing the region of Appalachia". In the meantime, the government grants and tax breaks will be devoured and the climate squad kept at bay by the proper plugging of uneconomic wells.

As a shareholder, I see this morally and as environmentally friendly as owning a petrol car and having gas central heating. I'll balance my portfolio with wind energy, and at home will have a hybrid car and now live with the thermostat turned down a couple of degrees.

We can all draw parallels to Apple being the toast of the stock market whilst commissioning their products to be made in sweat shops in Asia.

Why not share this on the main forum ? This is exactly the kind of stuff that should be discussed in my opinion.

Cheers ))

Hi Damofarl.

I'm hesitant to write my email on this forum as I can't delete posts.

Hi damofarl.

"boringly predictable"

You said it.. And right now this is awesome.

15% Yield and a daily relentless buyback scheme in the back ground.

Our worth in GBP increases recently too as the GBP/USD rate decreases on a trend.

Cheers and GL.

Good job then that DEC is a US based company that is reliant on the US gas markets.

it's price should be protected if not rise if the UK economy tanks as you say, the pound will surely crash again against the dollar.

'Eh.... It sounds like that really successful investing strategy of "Buy when it's expensive and sell when it's cheap... "'

"Quite possibly Gavstar :) I certainly subscribe to the "make more money than you lose" approach."

There was I thinking it was completely obvious I was being sarcastic.

Eh.... It sounds like that really successful investing strategy of "Buy when it's expensive and sell when it's cheap... "

Dividends being paid, buyback, nothing too problematic in it's presentations, an understanding of fair value being double today's price, yet happy to sell at a loss rather than sit out a downturn, which happens to just about every listed company.

Nobody likes staring at a paper loss, but realising it at the base of the curve seems like a recipe to lose money.

Yesterday 150,000. Slightly better but still nowhere near the volume level that shareholders want or need to make any sort of meaningful difference.

Yesterday's volume is quoted as 4.8m on IG and 7.5m on here.

IMO the Buyback volume level should have been at least triple what it was, or more like 10 times.

Anyone with L2 notice where DEC are sitting on the bid ? Or know why IG and LSE have different volumes, I'm inclined to trust IG.

Someone is selling and it's a big seller if not institutional if a single entity.

Why aren't DEC mopping these sales up with the buyback ?

(Say what you like but so far the only theory that fits has been my bonkers conjecture the CEO was not impressed with the CFO's choice of holders in the recent fund raise so asked him to leave, and does not want to help such holders in their selling by utilising the buyback.)

'Anything you can read on Simply Wall St. is worth no more than garbage. It's written by a brainless algorithm."

Sorry but this the kind of comment that does not help anything, let alone add to the discussion of why the buyback is so hopeless currently or who is selling.

The real point of quoting Simply Wall St is that there are loads of investors out there who do read such sites and will bypass DEC as an investment, so the sellers liquidity is not taken up, adding to our downtrend.

I hope this has not become the kind of BB that ignores any conjecture and only has multiple tick ups for all the posts such as "this will come good, the big boys is the city are holders" 'Just added" etc etc etc.

The first appearance of these is a red flag warning, has been since these BB's started.

Hi All

The previous buyback was pretty bad. Announced in September 2022 to expire in June 2023, a maximum of 85m shares was to be bought, the actual number ended up being only 7.9m Shares, and petered out last October. (1)

The most recent buyback has been so far hopeless. Announced late in June and so far has only involved 1.1m shares. (2)

The monthly volume is about 25m, so why isn't the company buying a minimum or 5m shares a month ?

Should we retail investors assume that they expect the share price to go lower ? Or that they are not really interested in a buyback other than to promote retail investor sentiment ?

Sentiment is not exactly great out in the fickle world of investment as exemplified by the risk analysis of Simply Wall St. "Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 79.9% per year for the next 3 years" (3), despite their fair value being much higher as it is also in recent broker reports, their own presentation, and of course the usual kind of negative postings and arguments on the share discussion boards that usually go along with a price decline.

Does DEC have to pay tax on the buybacks ?

(4) reading the rules it's not clear but I assume DEC does not have to pay tax. Even at 1% this would still be worth it surely ? Buy what about if it's raised to 4% ?

"Diversified Energy Insiders Placed Bullish Bets Worth US$449k". (5) This is a bullish headline.

(1)(Exact figure from "Transaction in Own Shares" RNS releases 850,836,129 - 842,965,753)

(2)(Exact figure from "Transaction in Own Shares" RNS releases 971,309,753 - 970,196,699)

(3) "Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 79.9% per year for the next 3 years"

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-dec/diversified-energy-shares

(4) https://www.bakerbotts.com/thought-leadership/publications/2022/september/new-1-excise-tax-on-stock-buybacks-by-publicly-traded-corporations

A “covered corporation” generally is a domestic corporation the stock of which is traded on an established securities market (within the meaning of IRC Section 7704(b)(1)).

Repurchases include not only stock acquisitions by the covered corporation itself, but also stock acquisitions by “specified affiliates” of the covered corporation. A “specified affiliate” includes any corporation more than 50% of whose stock is owned (by vote or value), or any partnership more than 50% of the capital or profits interests of which is held, directly or indirectly by the covered corporation.

Similar rules would apply to repurchases of stock (i) of a publicly-traded foreign corporation by certain specified affiliates of such foreign corporation and (ii) by certain foreign corporations that have engaged in material acquisitions of U.S. businesses on or after September 20, 2021 and are treated as “surrogate foreign corporations” under the U.S. “anti-inversion” rules or their specified affiliates.

(5) https://uk.style.yahoo.com/diversified-energy-insiders-placed-bull

No wonder ADVFN got this poster a ban. They're basically a conspiracy touter. All output from the company is a constructed lie to conseal the great rip off of shareholders. No provable reason is ever given.

It has become akin to an argument with a flat-earther. Never winnable because NASA has conned the world with lies.

Greygeorge. Let me say this to you..

"This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view"

Greygeorge "Not Oversubscribed"

Seriously ? Are you having a lapse of reason and understanding of basic investing ?

It was offered overnight to retail investors, the main subscription was fully taken up, by institutions. Retail are usually overlooked, in this instance we weren't, to the fortune for some. I wasn't able to take any, as there was no prep, and you had to have read the news, put everything aside and have the cash instantly. I've no doubt that if retail was offered with weeks to prepare, it would have been fully taken up.

Trotsky

To clarify, that was not my speculation, it was greygeorges. Your answer should be addressed to the him and doubters, and yes, as I've said earlier, all and every stone should be unturned to fathom this downtrend, even if turned over already. So thanks for your post.

Hi Ace

Can you explain why wrt production levels you think this will be so ?

"In 2024 we already know prices for DEC production will be lower than 2023 - their hedges tell us that. I think absolute production volumes will also decline in 2024, possibly sharper than anticipated."

Hi TheLoaf

I disagree. The buyback has been rubbish. There should be much more buying power and done every single hour of every single trading day, and then a declaration every day of how many shares they have sold then cancelled.

This is what the newsfeed of a company doing a share buyback should look like.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FA17/

I have a theory about a constant seller, a hopeless buyback and a sacked CFO :

The CFO bought in a particular buyer for the fund raising who now needs to sell up because he was in it for quick profit, or borrowed the money or some other reason. This annoys the CEO so much that he refuses to buy back those shares in the buyback scheme, sacks the CFO for bringing in a quick profit holder and so allows the SP to drift downwards on constant sells.

I had to undo my filter after seeing myself in the thread title..

So... The $1.8 billion loss was DEC buying gas on the open market to make up the shortfall that it did not produce in order to honour its hedged contract of gas.

I guess the first thing to check here is what quantity of gas this actually equates to so that an estimate of the shortfall can be made.

From that figure it would be possible to estimate by much gas they did not produce and why, or if they made a hedged contract for more gas than they actually could produce, which would basically be gambling/trading.

The problem with this theory is that that this year the hedges have so far worked in the companies favour, that's from the recent update. From memory.

The Tanos/Dec theory as I stated previously should be totally disregarded.

This news article was from Wednesday morning.

It flew already on this news.

Chart-wise the downtrend does looks like it's reversed on anticipation.

The sticking problem is "Turkey also calculates Iraq owes $950 million as a result of ICC arbitration; net of damages Turkey has to pay Iraq." which is in no way straight forward.