Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Notrex, read his previous posts here. He answered with a long reason as to why he thinks this is destined for the dump.

All will be revealed.

Hi Jim

It's perfectly right to look at all and everything for reasons why there is a constant sell down, and everything should be discussed.

Who is selling ?

Is there a distressed seller ?

Where is the list of holders...

I'm reminded of such times when shares have been in constant downtrend to the bafflement of holders, for example BP was sold down to 200p just 3 years ago during the pandemic. Everyone knew CV19 would end and the world return to normal, but that didn't stop the 'falling knife' downward trend.

But saying that, for all we know the CFO could have got the boot for having an affair at the office.

It's all speculation.

We'll See. GL Today. I held to collect the dividend and DRIP.

Richards Bay coal price was at 120.9 yesterday, Load Shedding is well down.

Last time coal was this price was 10th May and TGA was almost the same SP as close yesterday.

Any Dip below normal ex-div could well be short lived if the coal price trend keeps up.

The announcement could be between 29th September and 24th November going from the last two years.

"It is our intention to pay an interim dividend this year as close as possible in amount and on a similar timetable to the dividend paid in 2021, as and when the profitable sales of investments permit. The position regarding these investments is set out in more detail in the Managing Director’s report below."

There were two dividends in 2021, 2.7p and 0.8p. The total was 3.5p so repeated would be representing a yield of 22.6% to the mid price of 15.5p... However does that statement mean one of the interims ? The 0.8p would be unimpressive but 2.7p would be great. I'll have to email them and try and clarify that statement.

TORO is very cheap at the moment... Much more of a discount to quoted NAV than here, FAIR.

Looking forward to the Dividend landing in a couple of days. After this DRIP, I'll be very much in profit.

(...Hope I'm not speaking too soon).

Cheers and GL.

Https://mydorpie.com/m/?page=loadshedding&suburb=Barberton®ion=Umjindi&province=Mpumalanga

Also... Load shedding currently only 2.5 hours a day !

Was out all day and late yesterday evening found the articles that prompted the rise back to the 15s.

Most holders already know that with Mintails coming online, the new zones and power problems being overcome will see PAF becoming a 250k oz per year producer within a couple of years, but very well done to Loots to get the message out there.

https://www.edisongroup.com/research/advancing-to-250koz-in-annual-output-in-fy26/32694/

https://m.miningweekly.com/print-version/pan-african-advancing-to-quarter-million-ounces-of-gold-a-year-analyst-calculates-2023-09-18

https://headtopics.com/us/pan-african-advancing-to-quarter-million-ounces-of-gold-a-year-analyst-calculates-44611707

The pathway established by Pan African Resources towards achieving gold production of a quarter million ounces a year in 2026 is based on two organic growth prospects in the immediate future, Edison Investment stated in research released on Monday, September 18. The two organic growth projects named are the Mintails Soweto Cluster, near Krugersdorp and Mogale on the West Rand, and Royal Sheba, in the Barberton area of Mpumalanga. JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.

com) – The pathway established by Pan African Resources towards achieving gold production of a quarter million ounces a year in 2026 is based on two organic growth prospects in the immediate future, Edison Investment stated in research released on Monday, September 18.

Beyond these, the London- and Johannesburg-listed gold mining company headed by has the Fairview sub-vertical shaft, Rolspruit, Poplar and Evander South assets available for potential development, stated Edison, which described the share valuation of Pan African as being “cheap by any measure”.

Attainment by Pan African of a production of 250 000 oz in its 2026 financial year will push normalised headline earnings a share to around 6c a share, Edison forecasts. conducted a Zoom interview with Loots. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.) headtopics.

Greygeorge.

Nearly all the shareholders work in US$. It's an American company.

So you can work out what 105p was in dollars at that time, and work out what the equivalent in pence is now.

This should be a proper rollercoaster in the coming days and weeks, but speculation will close shorts and create a spike. I suggest to beyond 200p.

IMO Fundamentally the value of the company should be about what it was before the shut down with a discount representing the dividends and profit lost to sustaining the company, I suggest 150p.

Trading opportunity or hold through... ?

Are many people looking to short term trade from Monday ?

Hi.

The issue price in GBP may have been 105p, but IMO it's best to think in US$, (so the issue price was $1.27), as basically DEC is a US company, based in the US and reports and pays dividends in US$.

Current equivalent is only a bit different, 102.5p.

DEC has a pink sheet listing traded in US$ it seems, listed on yahoo.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DECPF?p=DECPF&.tsrc=fin-srch

So comparing the SP priced in dollars and in GBP on yahoo, uploaded an image here (yahoo's share link is too long)

https://ibb.co/Yd8s8rQ

https://ibb.co/fryMQTx

We know that the drift downwards since January is much more exaggerated in GBP than US$ but the image shows to what extent, and it's only just under 3%.

Interestingly this is only in the past year. The two year chart and higher shows that DEC has performed much better (even by 10% plus ) when priced in GBP. The 5 year chart shows a drop in US$ of 32.73% compared to 21.06%.

The $/£ exchange rate is now swinging in our favour, there is a gentle uptrend in place in Natural Gas the last 6 months.

Patience, collect the divs, buyback is ongoing, gas production looks stable, hedged for income longevity, this seems an excellent time to buy and/or do a DRIP.

Cheers all.

That's a dividend triple the usual ! Great ))

My favourite kind of ex-dividend day for HHI today, when the SP actually stays the same or goes up.

I had to double check it's the 14th today, as it behaved more like ex-div yesterday.

All good, recently increased by holding here.

I guess the message to investors is clear, in current market conditions the floor will be 85p.

Right now I'll be happy if the SP stays low like this until the end of the month for the DRIP trades including mine.

Just catching up after being away for a couple of weeks. So basically the 15% drop in Gold production was made up by a similar % increase in the price of gold in ZAR.

With respect to the $/£ rate, it's good for dividends in GBP with the rate now falling.

Can't see any great reason the dividend will be that much different to last year, debt has decreased making up for the lower EPS. Mintails expectancy and coming on line should price the company significantly above 200k oz per year sometime soon.

Load Shedding Continues

WEDNESDAY and until further notice

midnight – 5am stage 3. (I make that Off for 2 hours 3am til 5am)

5am – 4pm stage 1 (I make that On during this whole time)

4pm – midnight stage 3 (I make that Off for 2.5 hours 7pm til 930pm)

So no power for 4.5 Hours per day, during darkness.

Do the PAF solar power plants have battery storage so that their power can be used at night ?

Judging by the mute effect on the SP, it doesn't seem so..

https://mydorpie.com/m/?page=loadshedding&suburb=Barberton®ion=Umjindi&province=Mpumalanga

That escalated quickly...

Ricards Bay Coal price at 112.

https://www.investing.com/commodities/coal-(api4)-fob-richards-bay-futures

Also...

https://www.coaljunction.in/news/n_newsdetail/thungela-pushes-ahead-with-acquisition-plans-/34392

Thungela Resources (TGAJ.J), South Africa's largest shipper of coal burned in power stations, said it would push ahead with plans to acquire new assets even as lower prices and challenges moving the fossil fuel to local ports squeeze profits.

The Johannesburg-based miner's plans to diversify geographically have not changed despite coal prices falling from record highs, CEO July Ndlovu said.

"We are going to continue to look for assets and we have always said we wanted to grow our business,,"

The CEO said Thungela has a strong cash position to pay dividends and acquire new assets even as coal prices soften.

Thungela had 13.6 billion rand in net cash at end-June versus 14.8 billion rand a year earlier and has modelled its business on prices around $90 per ton of coal.

Thungela and producers including Exxaro Resources (EXXJ.J) and Kumba Iron Ore (KIOJ.J) are stockpiling coal and iron ore at their mines as state-owned rail operator Transnet SOC struggles to move output to the country's ports.

Thungela forecast output this year at between 11.5 million and 12.5 million tons from 13.1 million tons last year and against an annual potential production capacity of about 16 million tons of coal. Ndlovu declined to give production guidance for 2024.

Https://mydorpie.com/m/?page=loadshedding&suburb=Barberton®ion=Umjindi&province=Mpumalanga

By my calculations, looking at this website, there is only 3.5 hours of power cuts today, they there seems to be no power cuts the rest of the week.

There is this piece of news :

https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/eskom-suspends-load-shedding-due-to-improved-power-generation-ce489cec-c075-4f17-a5b1-803f5fe84bca

"Eskom suspends load shedding due to improved power generation"

But there is also..

https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/712514/eskom-suspends-load-shedding-heres-the-new-schedule/

If load shedding does end, then we could expect a pretty quick rise back up to the late teens.

Interesting responses.

I see the answer is in the last results.

· Net debt of £6.436 million (Jun 2022: net debt of £3.784 million)

MC infers an Earnings ratio of very roughly 3 to 1 minus the debt, which is probably about right until they increase production and/or resources and/or a produce a new bankable feasibility study.

I'll hold and wait, and consider averaging down if the SP dips below .2p.

Cheers and GL.

Only have a small holding so just want to gauge responses as on the face of it, GCAT is undervalued.

What exactly is going on here ?

From the last quarter, the inferred annualised profit for the year is in the region of $4.7m

4 x (1645oz x (GP $1,933 - AISC $1,218 ) ) = 4 x 1645 x 715 = 4 x 1.176m = $4.705m

The current market cap is £4.7m = $6.1m

Even a PE ratio of just 3 would make for a share price of 0.58p.

A PE ratio of 1.3 !!

Are my figures wrong ?

Is there a massive selling overhang ?

Are they in debt ?

Distrust of the board ? I can see this as a possibility googling some history, but surely not to the extent of such a mark down.

Measured resource of circa 90k oz, plenty of gold to mine at these rates of production.

Nice to see the NAV inch up a bit.

The Company announces the following unaudited net asset value per share as at 31 July 2023:

Ordinary Share: EUR 0.6526