Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Look great.

Cash currently greater than debt.

Nice dividend. Wealthy for 2024 intended for the acquisition I expect.

Hi Agricore.

I was going to ask about that trade, I saw a moment where you could have been up by over 5% and bought back to increase your holding here. I was about to say well done... There's still a lot of time I think with that trade.

TORO's discount to NAV is still high and there's just been the hint of movement upwards there.

As far as FAIR, definitely not selling yet. I have my eyes on the US$/GBP rate to break support and go lower than 1.20 before I would consider taking profit here. FAIR is now my second largest holding, then TORO and DEC are about the same. The chart of DEC tracks the treasury but on a small but increasing distance away from it, which is a good sign but an SP rise there IMO will be a long road.

I see your Oakbloke blog finally got noticed ! A good read. I finally got pen and pad and worked through your example a weak ago. A turning point for DEC could well be upcoming reports where there should be a change to profit with the hedges due to the accounting rules.

FAIR and TORO (and SMIF) are my "risky" plays but right now some of the most refreshingly boring but high yielding investments.

Hi @Trek

Which part had you all worked out already ?

A. How sustainable is the dividend with respect to different production decline rates and the need to buy assets to boost productivity?

If so can you share this research/analysis again please.

B. Who the poster Rusty talks about that was trashing DEC ?

C. Rusty's uncaring attitude to the share price.

I also mentioned the double bottom in treasury charts but thats only just happened, of course if it was a DB.

@Pikeman

You stated DEC was buying gas. so I asked you what you meant because of course they do not. You were then rude and insulting even though you were the one who's statement was stupid.

Filtered.

The shenanigans continue.

https://gazettengr.com/senate-to-probe-implementation-of-pia-exit-of-oil-companies-exit-from-nigeria/

On one hand it seems almost bizarre that the exit of oil companies from Nigeria is questioned when there is so much interference.

Look forward to seeing what Seplat have to say on Monday about the deal. I hope there is more to add than just the usual "we have confidence that the deal will go ahead" type of statement.

He said ExxonMobil offered to sell its entire onshore and shallow water facilities and business in Akwa Ibom, which had established fields and high-quality operations with highly skilled local operational teams.

The senator said that it was in preparation for its exit from its onshore and shallow water operations in the state and to focus on deepwater production.

He said it was curious that NNPC has the right of first refusal (RFR) and has notified ExxonMobil of its intention to exercise that right of pre-emption on the company’s planned sale of its entire asset in Nigeria’s onshore and shallow waters.

The lawmaker, however, said that ExxonMobil proceeded to seal a deal with Seplat Energy Plc for that purpose.

He said the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 was enacted to provide legal governance, regulatory and fiscal framework for the Nigerian Petroleum Industry and address the myriad challenges in the sector, which is still the mainstay of the country’s economic life.

Mr Aniekan said the PIA had yet to make clear implementation plans for situations such as the now emerging trend of exit of the IOCs.

All excellent stuff from UKW.

Dividend, dividend increase, massive discount to NAV, share buyback.

Can this shake off the decline ? If not what on earth will it take ?

Increase in Annual Dividend

As a consequence of the Company's prospects, strong balance sheet and cash flow generation, the Board has determined it will increase its annual dividend target to 10 pence share for the 2024 financial year, an increase of 14.2% over the 2023 target dividend of 8.76p. This increase is significantly higher than forecast December 2023 RPI inflation.

Commencement of Share Buyback Programme

The Programme will commence shortly, and subject to market conditions, end by no later than 25 October 2024. The Programme will be executed under the authority granted by shareholders at the Greencoat annual general meeting on 23 April 2023 to acquire up to 347,506,861 shares, equating to c.14.99% of the issued share capital at the time.

Discount to NAV

Net Asset Value / Net Asset Value per share

£3,845.0 million / 165.8 pence

16p Again proving tough to break through.

Load shedding is down to only 2.5 hours a day !

Good news for production indeed.

https://mydorpie.com/m/?page=loadshedding&suburb=Barberton®ion=Umjindi&province=Mpumalanga

The SP is largely tracking the treasury bonds this month. 5% is becoming a serious threshold.

Interesting conversation over on the ADVFN DEC BB yesterday which is worth a read, especially the sums reflecting declination rates.

I assume everyone has watched this interview by now.

Rusty shows a very uncaring attitude towards the share price which explains the lack of action with this slide and also wrt to the hopeless buyback showing it is not just cashflow dependent.

Who is the retail investor blogger that Rusty talks about ?

A double bottom chart-wise would be very welcome as an opportunity.

As if we all don't know already...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/soaring-treasury-yields-threaten-long-term-performance-us-stocks-2023-10-26/

Pikeman. "They buy gas at x price" does not mean "They produce gas from their purchased wells at this price".

Trying to make yourself clever by insulting me is not a endearing aspect of character.

At no stage in the conversation did I once make out that I was short of research.

Anything other than an apology puts you on my filter.

Seriously Pikeman, don't take me for an idiot, and write what you mean in proper language next time.

Pikeman. Are you trying to be funny ?

It was you who implied that they were buying gas with your words. Read them again. You clearly implied that by saying they purchased gas, so I wanted you to expand on what you were saying. Now I realise that it was just your poor use of language that made for the error.

Of course I've gone through that lot. I guess you are now just being rude or obnoxious.

Hi Pikeman

Are you saying that DEC buys a lot of gas on the open market ?

If so how much gas are they buying compared to what they are producing themselves ?

@Pikeman

Oops, I realise you must have meant to say "DEC owns a lot of it THEY SELL at attractive rates"

Hi @Pikeman

What exactly do you mean by this ?

"US NAT has is the cheapest energy on the planet currently. DEC owns a lot of it purchased at attractive rates. "

In Relation to this : https://www.div.energy/operations/

Hi Krustysmegma (haha)

That's a very reasonable explanation. The market caps are £186m (HHI) and £120m but the yields are not far apart.

Once any last div is paid, I'm not sure how it affects the joining of the two though, as discount to NAV for HDIV is currently marginal and would track down to the amount of any last divi.

If HDIV is simply added to HHI afterwards, then the new discount to NAV would be less than 10% but still significant.

This is largest I've seen since the pandemic dip.

Any long term investors see this king of discount before ?

So.. An opportunity here, a sign of lowering yields ( or even something at Henderson ) ?

Let me get this right..

Motley states the BOD are happy to see the share value trashed so they can keep their bonuses. In fact it's the reason for the sell off.

Their bonuses are so important that they are going to issue shares to keep the Debt to Earnings ratio at a certain level. Nothing to do with more acquisitions, the business or economy and never mind the large shareholders who are multi millions down on their investment.

OK, so we've all seen this kind of selfish trashing of wider economic factors to keep a few in riches from autocratic intentioned Tories/Republicans but this is a PLC, traded on the FTSE with a product and a balance sheet.

I'm sure this will make for some interesting emails to the company this week.

A few thoughts and questions :

What's to stop them borrowing the entire shortfall ?

They might have to issue some shares to some greedy bankers in their shiny suits, but I'm sure opening up to competition would bring that to a minimum. No doubt those same snouts were short-selling in the first place. All speculation but as retail investors we have to suck it up and navigate around it. (If it was similar to the con job of SXX then the BOD would be in league with shorters, which is just my opinion). Fortunately bankers and shorters have no influence on the actual asset value.

Current Discount to NAV only assuming Property, plant & equipment quoted asset value : $450m - $60m (Market cap in £ converted and rounded up to nearest $10m) = $390m.

So bare asset value without any cash would be an SP of 114p.

Even a fire sale value would be what, 55p a share or something.

Costs per tonne in the NI-43-101 are a fraction of the nickel price.

A mining or even a car giant could buy this up with their pocket change.

What am I missing here, this sell off seems massively overdone ?

Surely a screaming buy and a moment to average down.... Yet here we go.

Cheers all and GL.

Emphasise "Should"...

This and the gold price now at $1975 as I write should get the SP moving

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-10-19-no-load-shedding-for-the-next-three-days-says-eskom/