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Thanks Selpec. I'll look into it (again).

Can I highlight my earlier post to everyone... It is truly massive positive news for PAF if Eskom will be supplying full power to the mining from now on.

Hi Mulder. Wouldn't worry too much. This is the kind of news that will take weeks to filter in and have an effect. A verified up trend would be welcome.

Check this out ! I didn't even know such things existed.

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/south-africas-eskom-to-buy-electricity-from-karpowership-amidst-environmental/f1qf48p

Full credit to such an amazing idea. Not sure how much this will power Eskom's shortfall to what they need to produce.

But has load shedding stopped already ... This news says YES !

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/519945-good-news-for-load-shedding-3.html

PAF's Barberton Gold mining operations will get a significant boost when load shedding stops for good.

If this ship and Eskom's management has filled the gap permanantly that caused Load Shedding, then IMO there could be a 30% boost to the SP (in the same way the cut in power (and so production) caused a 30% drop.

POG is staying high. The next operational update could be very exciting for us retail share holders.

This link confirms the load shedding has stopped in Barberton.

https://mydorpie.com/m/?page=loadshedding&suburb=Barberton®ion=Umjindi&province=Mpumalanga

To the 20's and beyond..

@Selpec

How are your PAF shares held ?

Mine are in a combo of SIPP, ISA and trading a/c and I tried and failed last year to cut my WHT to 10% in any of them. All my shares are in nominee accounts.

I understood the WHT could be cut if the nominee company register or you held shares directly, like a certificate. ?

If DEC does not go up 5% today, then the situation smacks of manipulation IMO

Logically. In the absence of all other theories being proven etc...

Well no trades. Nobody was impressed with the presentation.. Why ? Where is it ? It should be on line, unless it's the same one from a few weeks ago.

Hi Damofarl

I did hold HEFL, but I sold out with about a 2% profit around 300p, which took about a year.

I was attracted by the high yield and fund nature, as I'm sure you are aware but the SP and news was so sluggish. I hold another Henderson fund HHI and I'm very happy with that. TBH I didn't know enough about the downturn coming towards Asian markets so i was glad to be out and then watched the SP fall to the low 200s. Interestingly the chart looks similar to DEC, which back up the argument that the bears are firmly in control.

I wouldn't recommend, but of course if you can judge the bottom of that fall, then you'll be a winner.

Cheers

Listed in the USA. Not a company with a yield above 10% in this list. (Copied/pasted to the end of this post too)

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-natural-gas-stocks-to-buy

What about Range Resources ... (I hear you ask) ? Big ops in APPALACHIA

https://www.rangeresources.com/operations/our-regional-operations/

Dividend Yield has always been around 1%

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RRC/range-resources/dividend-yield-history

That said, the idea that DEC will quickly rerate to a yield of 10% is hindered by web presences like this :-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversified_Energy "An October 2021 investigation by Bloomberg News found that 59% of sampled natural gas wells belonging to Diversified were leaking significant amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas." (This needs to be proven otherwise and their wiki page updated. )

And of course the Simply Wall St articles, but in the same google news feed there are

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1033170/diversified-energy-company-highlights-solid-operations-as-it-delivers-consistent-quarterly-results-1033170.html

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/09/01/diversified-energy-remains-a-strong-income-stock/

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/diversified-energy-reports-solid-third-quarter--15344832.html

AS OF NOV. 3 2023. Highest yield of these recommended 7 natural gas companies is 9.2%.

NATURAL GAS STOCK/FUND FORWARD YIELD YTD RETURN

Plains All American Pipeline LP (ticker: PAA) 6.8% 45.4%

Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) 1% 16.7%

Energy Transfer LP (ET) 9.2% 26.6%

Northwest Natural Holding Co. (NWN) 5% -13.6%

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) 6.7% -0.4%

iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO) 3.1% 7.8%

United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) 0% -48.5%

Hi Damofarl

Your answer pretty much completely agreed with me about the production declination being the cause of the constant sell down. Perhaps you misunderstood my point.

In your answer "Personally, I think beyond 2030 there will be little meaningful production but they don't need it (or new acquisitions) to cover the debts and duvets until then. "

Which is exactly what I mean by the decline in production. In fact if the rate of decline was their quoted rate of 10% there would be meaningful production in 2030, and the debt payments are possible (as my analysis worked out), but no meaningful production by 2030 implies a much higher rate of decline than their 10%.

I do agree that they may well cut and run at the end of it their production, but the rate of decline in production will signify when exactly that will be. The most optimistic 4% declination rate will keep DEC going for 25 years as an estimate.

It's an interesting speculation by the markets. Just a year ago all was sunny uplands with a high SP and shareholders not minding acquisitions by share issue. Now the idea of issuing shares at current prices is an extremely bad sentiment driver.

We'll see, there are some decent yields in Oil and Gas / Tobacco but not any that I can think of beyond 20% so I'm still optimistic about the stateside listing.

Other than that.. Looking forward to the FAIR dividend for DRIPS this Friday.

That refreshing green text "This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view".

All I know is whatever that last post was, it was not worth reading.

Ticketi-Boo you go straight on to the filter list.

34 posts , all of them bashing DEC. Typical of the paid posters found on the LSE discussion boards.

I'm disappointed that the US listing did not happen today, as noted by posters who pointed out the RNS wording.

Those are the OTC listings. They have been in place years.

Clued and Northfork. These are not listings with the New York Stock Exchange, but they are traded on the OTC market which is headquartered in NW.

OTC Listings : https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/otc.asp

"When companies do not meet the requirements to list on a standard market exchange such as the NYSE, their securities can be traded OTC but may still be subject to some regulation by the Securities and Exchange Commission."

Good price for DRIP trades for tomorrow's dividend though ))

PAF is an AIM share. Which might be good for inheritance tax issues at least.

Hi Mulder and all, as a long term holder, I seem to remember the P/E here always being around 5 to 6, until that time the SP spiked up to 28p, then the gold price subsided, Eksom problems started etc.

Can you remember historically any other time the P/E of PAF exceeded around 6 ?

The buyback regularity here is also now "Refreshingly boring".

@Agricore

Another great write up regarding DEC. I'm interested as to why you didn't mention the annual 10% production declination rate being the source of the share price decline. Recently I shared some rough analysis on DEC I did regarding that production and so revenue decline at today's gas prices and their hedges for the next 10 years, with respect to whether they can keep up their debt paying commitments. This above all else, relaxed the anxiety I had concerning the constant new lows in SP going into its US listing.

Finally averaged down the holding in my ISA today, to 77p in old money (now 1550p), which is around the price I expected DEC at least to be already before the US Listing going ahead next week. The SP tracking treasuries for so many months. I'm speculating the shortfall to that recent correlation is to do with large holders and hedge fund trading shenanigans.

Let's hope they pull out the stops with promo and get some momentum during a Christmas Rally.

Cheers and GL All.

"I'm inclined to believe that local traders know something that we don't."

Yes, but then there has been the same discount to the Nigerian exchange ongoing for the entire two years I have been invested here.

The gold price spiked to $2140 briefly last night. Lets hope that's a sign to where it's heading, and also that PAF contracted a few kilos in sales.

Hi Trek. Welcome to PAF. I've held shares since 2010 when they plummeted to a penny (if only I could time travel back to then).

Paf is my largest holding of any company and they are superbly run, from restoring the land and getting their Aisc down to genuine shareholder priorities and paying off debt.

A main speculation of PAF right now IMO is they are a recovery play. A third of their value was wiped once it was revealed up to 15% of their mining capacity stopped due to Eksom load shedding.

Renewable energy could put this recovery back in their hands. This means SP uplift comes from several directions. Back to full productivity, gold price, the new Mintails project coming on line, being bash rich with little or no debt (40% of cash flow pledged in dividend), takeover target..

A sustained gold price above 2000 could easily take the SP back to the mid 20s, and either better sentiment towards SA, like others say, 30s.

Cheers and GL