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Notrex, I'm not suggesting anything.

But Rusty clearly is, with his own words in that interview. Now I appreciate that this goes against the DEC community mantra, and also my own investment reasons here, but it is what it is and these are his words below. If this was said by another CEO of any other listed company, reading between the lines would bring the same conclusion, prioritising buybacks and acquisitions over dividend outflows.

"We feel the current stock price is a on a valuation basis is a good bargain for us and for us to buy our own shares at these low prices and low valuation is the best use of some of our capital. So we'll be looking at ways to potentially do that to create capital to buy back shares, because we think that's probably one of the best uses of our cash at the present time".

I not in the interview there was no mention of the high importance of keeping the dividend in place, being a most obvious way of creating capital. I hate to say it but the dividend is really not looking safe now. But would this change be priced in already ?

Would holders here prefer that $42m a quarter being spent on buybacks, acquisitions or keep the dividend ?

I don't mind a cut in divi to half of what it was, as IMO that's more than priced in already.

We're up 4%, but to be honest we should be up by 4% just on the gold price movements already let alone a 45% increase in earnings. Surely the PAF SP is heading to the mid 20s, an extra 50k oz of production next year should take us to the 30s, even if it does the P/E will probably still be less than 4 or thereabouts.

Up over 8% in Nigeria today.

Shares in Nigeria priced equivalent to GBP 228p.

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/summary?s=SEPLAT:LAG

Very significant chart-wise to get past 148/149.

Highest price for years. We could practically treat this as "blue sky" Nice.

That short selling report claiming 18 or 19% declination bothered me. So this is a rough calculation correct up for discussion.

Production rate of Q4 2022 reported in Jan 2023 = 134 Mboepd

Acquisition (Tanos) Production rate 17 MBoepd, Completed 2nd March 2023

Production rate of Q4 2023 reported in Jan 2024 = 136.8 Mboepd

(Take away production due to Tanos of 17 = 119.8

Decliniation rate as a percentage of what the rate was originally is therefore

(134/119.8 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11.85%

HOWEVER... If Tanos production itself declined by 10% in the time since acquired then Tanos produced only 15.3, which changes the above calculation like this

(134/(136.8-15.3) - 1) x 100 =

(134/120.7 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11%

It makes sense for the short sellers to lie to promote their case, and also for DEC to always massage their figures too, but the numbers must back them up. 11% is not far off 10%, and if the rate was taken as a percentage of the resulting production then 120.7 / 134 = 9% which of course is much nicer number to promote.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/completion-of-acquisition-credit-facility-upsize-zwvi19bb31k3fgu.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/trading-statement-55yfngjt4foyg3l.html

Ignore that. Some of my deletions have not taken effect.

That short selling report claiming 18 or 19% declination bothered me. So this is a rough calculation correct up for discussion.

Production rate of Q4 2022 reported in Jan 2023 = 134 Mboepd

Jan 2023 134 Mboepd

Acquisition (Tanos) Production rate 17 MBoepd, Completed 2nd March 2023

Production rate of Q4 2023 reported in Jan 2023 = 134 MboepdJan 2024 136.8 Mboepd

(Take away production due to Tanos of 17 = 119.8

Decliniation rate as a percentage of what the rate was originally is therefore

(134/119.8 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11.85%

HOWEVER... If Tanos production itself declined by 10% in the time since acquired then Tanos produced only 15.3, which changes the above calculation like this

(134/(136.8-15.3) - 1) x 100 =

(134/120.7 - 1) x 100 = Declination rate of 11%

It makes sense for the short sellers to lie to promote their case, and also for DEC to always massage their figures too, but the numbers must back them up. 11% is not far off 10%, and if the rate was taken as a percentage of the resulting production then 120.7 / 134 = 9% which of course is much nicer number to promote.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/completion-of-acquisition-credit-facility-upsize-zwvi19bb31k3fgu.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DEC/trading-statement-55yfngjt4foyg3l.html

Just came in and expected to see DEC 100 points higher than it is.

Instead we have algorithmic short-selling going on and all attempts on sentiment being driven to the pit again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Voleon_Group

Update was good. Ship sails steady and we expect another great dividend.

The transfer of LSE to NYSE carries on.

Any cash must go into a buyback or indeed the idea of borrowing to buy your own shares to gain the dividend to pay the interest, not sure if that's even legal but go for it.

Just pointing out that an SP of £10 is still only a paltry 50p a share in old money.

The shorting started around 1300p, this is where we should be heading back to as a start IMO.

Annual yield even after WHT is still standing at 22%

'Anticipating a happy valentine'

https://www.edisongroup.com/research/anticipating-a-happy-valentine/33168/

Valuation: Steady at 42.27c (33.46p)

As expected. lots of "Jam tomorrow" but we know Mintails is happening and the target of several 10s of 1000s above 200k annual production is where we are heading.

Page 7.

Alternatively, applying PAF’s peer average year one P/E ratio of 12.1x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 5.31c per share for FY24 implies a share price for the company of 51.04p. Applying its peer average year two P/E ratio of 9.2x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 6.00c per share implies a share price of 43.90p.

Readers’ attention is also drawn to the decline evident in the market’s year one yield estimate for PAF, which appears to suggest that it believes the company will cut its dividend in FY24 (or that the rand will fall very sharply versus the US dollar, but that this will otherwise not be reflected in the company’s results), which we regard as highly unlikely, except in extenuating circumstances.

So is this it ? The spike upwards in Seplat's market capitalisation due to the acquisition we've all been waiting for, or a higher dividend being declared. We'll see.

Patting my own back tonight...

I've had one of those rare trading two days where the plan went well ! Sold all my stake in Seplat at 136 yesterday, bought Dec at 848, sold this morning gaining 8%, bought the original shares back and more in Seplat first thing this morning , along with more UKW and lowered my DEC average, now Seplat is up by over 4% on the day. A well needed bottle of wind with the Mrs tonight )) Cheers and GL all.

If the average gas well produces 10 BOE/d at only $60 a barrel, that's around $220,000 revenue a year.

Which easily covers a plugging cost of $20k, $30k even $100k....

Basically, I'm not too worried about plugging costs. Just IMO.

"the average natural gas well produced about 192,591 cf/d (about 36 BOE/d of total oil and natural gas). "

" In 2022, 77% of the more than 912,962 U.S. wells

produced less than 15 BOE/d, and 7% of the wells produced more than 100 BOE/d. "

"What is a stripper well?

A stripper well, also called a marginal well, is an oil or natural gas well that is nearing the end of its

economically useful life. These wells can continue to produce small volumes for long periods. Many of

these wells are still operating, and together they produced approximately 6% of total U.S. oil and natural

gas in 2022. The Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission defines a stripper well as a well that

produces 10 b/d or less of oil or 60,000 cf/d or less of natural gas during a 12-month period. The Internal

Revenue Service (IRS)—for tax purposes—defines this type of well as one that produces 15 b/d or less of

oil over a calendar year. In addition, 15 b/d or less of oil converts to 90,000 cubic feet or less of natural

gas per day over a calendar year. We use the IRS definition."

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/pdf/Well_Distributions_report_2023_frequently_asked_questions.pdf

They've done that for years. I don't see it elsewhere either, as the Dividend is supposed to be 40% of cashflow, but it is what it is and PAF has been a great investment for well over a decade.

Buybacks are out the question IMO. There's little appetite amongst the share holders going from the votes at PAF AGMs, perhaps non SA holders for tax-reasons as you say, but that's the minority.

They can be a red flag for me. They reward only sellers, and for example a BOD issuing themselves shares then having them bought using company money, like at BP. Much prefer dividends driving a higher SP.

Not exactly the market reaction I expected.

Is it any wonder there is an exodus from the LSE. Brexit may have been the pin for the balloon to burst, but the LSE isn't helping itself rather than slowly watch it deflate.

Monkshood, IMO another placing will not happen this year, more likely a listing in the USA.

Meeting today..

Our current market cap is £19m

Surely a rerate to at least £25m / £30m based on this news alone.

While existing contracts will show significant growth on FY23, the Board now expects revenues for FY24 will be between £27m and £30m.

· This guidance assumes no revenue is recognised in FY24 from the current pipeline of new business opportunities, with the main risk variances relating to FX and OEM regulatory sign off on individual US programmes now being onboarded

· Current contracted business, without any new customer wins, is expected to double in size once all contracts reach full production to at least £33m.

Profit for the period = 98458oz x $660 (GP - AISC) = $65m approx.

Another 6 months like this then we're heading for PAF's best year.

Pre=tax Profit of $130m, current market cap of $380m (approx)...

That's a PE of lest than 3 !!!

Come on, surely a re-rate to the mid 20's, and that's before the Mintails gold starts to roll in.

IMO If it happens, it will happen suddenly and quickly, as these types of moves most often do.

Amazing considering all the problems.

Great, from 7%down to 7% up. Constant selling in UK and some buying in the USA, which is fine for the SP, not so great for our blood pressure in the UK.

"Bargain Territory" started months ago !!