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Nightmare....

What is going on here ?

XD effect is -3 to 4%%, natural gas went down about 3%, indexes tanked due to essentially due to the debt ceiling nonsense nutjobs in the Republican party, but this is not exactly new goings on to the wider market and DEC has been resilient to it all.

Is it the debt ? A large holder selling down their holding ? Something that's not come out in the news yet (most annoying type of drop that we see where the PI's last to know anything).

The $/£ rate went down from 1.25 to 1.23 so that is upward pressure by 1% on the SP last few days, but increased a little bit yesterday.

This wasn't in my plan..

Anyone understand the drop ?

Coal and / or Teck Resources ?

The company down in value would not be great for a large share issue. Better to have it high.

https://www.ft.com/content/3ef4a51e-f209-4fd5-9084-f029723bae3c

Very positive update.

CEO reckons the value has trebled. Let's hope the SP will treble too.

Some healthy director buys would be good signs to the market IMO.

"The current UK and US manufacturing facilities are being expanded to meet this rapid increase in order book and with the new US facility setup, can be doubled again in capacity, to meet further new business and contracted volumed growth, of up to £70m. ..

Andy Beaden, Chairman, Velocity, said: "The recent start of manufacturing at our new facility in Alabama was a major milestone and demonstrated the significant progress we have made over the last 12 months. We have trebled the value of commercial business under contract compared to this time last year. The global aerospace industry continues to recover, and alongside our new US base, we anticipate significant revenue growth in the coming years, particularly in North America."

Well gold went down, and so did PAF. Look away for an afternoon and all changes in the market.

LWHL. Add to that arms trading scandal the cosying up by South Africa to Russia, and all of a sudden the question is posed as to whether Russia is buying or funding South African gold.

That said, we are where we are, and the expected announcement is AISC lower and production targets still in place for 2023, would IMO change sentiment positively.

Hi All.

There's much talk of a correction in gold price, for example traders Gary Savage or David Jones.

I am holding off from the sell button, which would have the aim of trading my average higher, due to the possibility of PAF's Barberton AISC problems now being solved (It spanked the price from December then made official news end of January) , and of course the prospect of Mintails getting closer (and becoming more energy efficient etc).

This will all be definitive news after the 6 months update for 2023, expected mid July, and should be shown in the SP from now.

The gap between PAF and the GDX can be seen from this yahoo comparison chart.

https://ibb.co/kxTHsnN

So if gold goes down... Will that gap close now by PAF moving up ? Or will Mintails and Barberton's AISC remain a problem and the SP will continue tracking the GDX ? Or would the market be standard fickle and send us back to 15/16p ?

It seems to me that the drop in gold price could be balanced by upwards PAF movement by improved fundamentals (Mintails and better Barberton AISC).

What do others think ?

Gary Savage on the Gold price :

https://youtu.be/dm5C8SIPBiE

Hi Captain and damofarl.

Yes, I'd like to know what's going on, especially the SP going down two days before ex-div.

Is it the continuing effect of high inflation on companies that we discussed might happen back in 2021 ?

I've been a TORO champion until now, having now seen all my reinvested dividend profit wiped out to round about breaking even or less on my 12 month holdings, and slightly down on my 24 month.

Can't see any particular clues in the March factsheet, could one loan be going south ?

https://www.chenavaritoroincomefund.com/assets/Uploads/8b5a670f53/Chenavari-Toro-Income-Fund-Limited-Factsheet-MARCH-2023-EXTERNAL.pdf

Hi MJS1 and all.

Just looked at this and seen the drop in SP. I took the profit from 104 to 109 recently in about 2/3rds of my holding but the div increase IMO just makes that worth holding. With the discount to NAV in place, and a rightful markdown due to incompetence in overlooking about £15m, however I make this still worth buying at this and lower levels. I'll look to move my cash from sales back before the Ex-div.

Hi Captain_Value.

Interesting... Out of interest how did you calculate your risk/reward ratio ? Also how did you calculate your final score from those parts (SP / historic, PE , CRV etc) ?

And what was the company that was first ?

Looks like a nice steady ship.

Dividend is excellent.

Gas price still low but bubbling and bouncing off $2.10

Mintails will increase PAF's earnings by $50m a year. (50k ounces, GP $2000, AISC $1000)
A 1p annual Dividend costs PAF $20m.

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/53191-pan-african-remains-hopeful-on-sudan-project-after-evacuating-employees-on-saturday/

PAN African Resources is hopeful of resuming exploration for gold in Sudan after withdrawing from the north African country over the weekend.

Pan African forged ahead on its Sudan investment. Loots said $5m in expenditure had been spent to date of a proposed $7m over three years. This was on a 1,100 square kilometre property situated about 70km northwest of Port Sudan in the north.

Events in Sudan are a blow to Pan African which has otherwise restricted its gold replacement and growth projects to some of South Africa’s most mature assets, including the R2.5bn Mintails project.

Mintails, which will see the processing of gold dumps from nearby mines, is scoped to produce 50,000 to 60,000 ounces a year in gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,000/oz.

All time high in ZAR 37,314.84
US$ 2040
GBP £1623
As of typing this post.
Perfect timing for PAF to have addressed the AISC problems and head into the 5th and 6th month of their accounting year.
Add in the Mintails potential.
Mid to high 20s.... Perhaps this time the SP will surpass 30p if the new gold bull run keeps GP above $2000

Not only are the markets so fickle as to simply see "Gas company" and so DEC tracks the gas price, there is added weight on the SP due to the US$/GBP exchange rate. DEC is an American company that works in dollars but the SP is priced in GBP.
An exchange rate of 1.25 compared to 1.10 on a $1.20 DEC share price, in GBP would be 96p (rate of 1.25) and 109p (rate of 1.10), which is quite a big difference for investors in GBP compared to no difference at all for investors in US$.
The gas price daily chart shows bullish divergence which has lead to mass speculation that gas prices are on the turn upwards, the number of long positions on gas currently is staggering. A gas price recovery or bounce will not be immediate, it will happen over months.
DEC and it's hedge system have previously proved that the ship sailed fine when natural gas dipped below 2.
Put simply, this is a very good price to buy DEC.
Cheers an GL.

Hi Krusty
Yes paying loans off will be excellent, a shame it has to be done by selling assets. Without checking I bet these loans were supposed to shore up income created assets.
Anyway, lowering debt and moving into storage is essentially a good thing, so onwards & upwards.

Hi Trotsky.
Fair Oaks has been a great investment for me in the last year. The SP barely moves during the quarters, and though I've seen the SP go down with the weight of an ongoing buyback scheme (reason for the drop from 2.5 to 2), the relative stability is refreshing in todays markets.
TGA also offered a large divi, but both GEM and TGA are subject to large ex-div movements.

In order to buy energy storage (great) but also fund a buyback (not great).
Anyone. Is it too large an assumption that the subsidy will continue with a new labour government ?
Missed the webinar so I'll catch up later.
I understand the uplift of buybacks but I personally see them as only rewarding share sellers, even if issued by themselves, so allows a large seller to out. The only buybacks I agree with would be to the same level as a DRIP.
Personally I'd rather see new assets or a capital return as a dividend if they want to return to shareholders.
I bought recently at 104/105 for the slow uplift towards Dividend time, expected late May, so this news is great for the ticks up.
I will likely sell if the SP reaches the 120's again, but looking to trade average low if the SP gets above 111 after ex-div.
We'll see.

Expected a gap up on these results, but no. It has allowed to be sell some free holdings of other shares and increase my Seplat holdings for a higher dividend return, all before 820am. I was waiting for the low nineties, but after today it's difficult to see prices under 100p in anyway justified.

Outstanding !!
And no buybacks, just proper dividends, increasing.
Debt and cash positions now the right way round.
Market cap could be double today's and these results would still be positive.

Discount to Nav of 7p.
NAV of £167.10 million or 105.48 pence per share as at 31 March 2023 (31 December 2022: £166.24 million or 104.93 pence per share).
The gap between dividend and earnings is still a concern but closing since last report.
This is a hold/add for me as art of my portfolio.
Investing on the premise that earnings becomes higher than the div so the discount to NAV decreases.

Lets see how the market reacts..