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Low 17s arrived early IMO.
I bought at 17.6 today. I'm transferring long term holdings to a dealer with 10% WHT on the dividend rather than 20%, so looking to sell higher.
Edison paves the way for the operational update. I'd like clarity with the notes take up to fund Mintails / BLyvor.
CEY had a proper hit today with their AISC, but still has a £1.3bln MC on their 450k oz production region.
PAF Market Cap currently £332m.
A good day to remind myself of this article:
"S2 Research says the Mintails and Blyvoor assets could increase Pan African’s total gold reserve ounces by 9% and 8%, respectively. Together, these assets could double the current tailings retreatment reserve ounces, it states.
Pan African’s total gold production could increase from S2 Research’s forecast base case of 350 000 oz to 450 000 oz by 2027, it says. Gold production could, thereafter, be maintained at 400 000 oz until 2032 (base case 300 000 oz)."
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/pan-africans-tailings-retreatment-acquisition-strategy-compelling-says-s2-research-2022-02-15

But what do the brokers know ? Today also Berenberg raises Centamin price target to 141 (123) pence - 'buy'. Their Q results today show a large increase in AISC, people here may have looked across to CEY today.
Capital.com did an analysis of the silver price breakout possibility recently. IMO the daily chart shows the need for the POS to go above 25 to show this.
If the SP does go to 850, (may also be pressed down by the ftse being currently over bought), I'll definitely buy.
https://youtu.be/DEcr6wYwOmc

Not a great start to 2023. Dividend not fully covered and we're back below 100p.

Hi Danger_Mouse. That could also mean current prices are a good entry.
IMO Those anticipated high dividends of 2026 onwards by Edison would surely mean an SP in the 50s or more, however the 2025 predicted dividend of 30 cents is a great spanner in the works, but would serve a buyback. The way the loan notes work may even this balance out. Edison after all are paid by PAF themselves and there hasn't been any more buybacks.
https://www.edisongroup.com/research/setting-the-scene-for-fy23-and-beyond/31596/
We may get another chance in the 17s if Gold retraces, say to 1850 and the FTSE becomes over bought, however the trading statement may change sentiment altogether. We'll see.

The Gold price just hit an all time highest price in GBP of £1572 ! Yet PAF and other London Listed gold miners are certainly hitting anything but.
The ZAR price also highly relevant to PAF recently hitting 32800, a 9% rise from the all time high of 35600.
The next Operational Update for the Six Months July-Dec 2021 is expected in the next week or two.
Dept should be gone, timeline for Mintails and aims for new projects, energy costs should be down, more details about the notes and of course the farming will be generating revenue. Generally a rosey few years should be ahead, and we all hope a much higher SP to match.
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-chart.html

Article:
https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/if-it-looks-like-a-duck-and-quacks-like-a-duck-it-is-a-duck-8d647f8b8026

"Despite significant headwinds of a higher dollar and real positive rates on the USTs, Gold outperformed most of the asset classes in 2022, thanks to enormous buying by the Russian CB and the higher nominal buying power of other CBs due to increasing inflation.

Nevertheless, the most significant trigger for prices remains the Fed pivot and will be closely watched by market participants this year. I expect the Fed to act somewhere in H2, which will start the rally in Gold prices and may lead to a fresh all-time in 2024 if not later this year.

Furthermore, as the EM currencies were battered last year, Gold prices continue to touch all-time highs in EMs every day."

Surely this is breakout week.

The gold price has well and truly broken it's down trend and is soaring. Yearly chart shows PAF is at the top of its channel and surely will now follow the POG and do the same.
If

Hi All.
I'm watching with interest at the DEC price since twice trading last year and now have a free holding.
Currently waiting for the next entry which the chart shows as 110, 108p or even 99p, which IMO could easily happen regards oil/gas/£to$currency/index movements during January.
I notice a few people happy to hold during these long dips and wait for divs to DRIP but my question is are there compelling fundamental reasons as to why today's price might be the floor ?

So is it the loan notes, or do we have a seller ? The chart indicates how from the beginning of November PAF stagnated whilst other JSE quoted gold miners started upwards and reached a breakout.
The gold price is on a breakout yet PAF is still stuck in the downward channel that it's had trending since it's 2022 high of 24p.
IMO my hunch is that PAF will be late to the "breakout' party, but still go north. The share price could easily have spanked more at the prospect of a development loan alongside a temporary cut in dividend, but this time this is not the case. The asset backed notes are issued keeping dividends high, meaning the 200k oz profits not being used for the new projects loans. This I remember was how Loots described what was to happen, the ring-fence. I'd have to dig to find it.

Just having a look at
https://www.kitco.com/stocks/
Amongst the JSE quoted stocks. Comparing the 6 month charts of PAF against AngloGold Ashanti is not pretty, but also against DRDGold and Gold Fields Ltd show the same start of the disparity, at the same time, the second week in November. At that time PAF had the news that Ninety One Ltd and The Public Investment Corp slightly increased their holdings. It was also a couple of weeks after the Loan Notes Investor presentation.
So what gives ? Surely we should be at a higher price, and if keeping up with Anglogold then the SP should be in the mid to low 20s! Is it these loan notes ? The usual hangover after a dividend ? Or a seller holding back the price ?
Here is the 6 month chart comparison from yahoo
https://ibb.co/P9BHwtS

Hi.Damofarl.
I did understand, but the other side of the the coin also could be argued to have merits, and the SP sitting at NAV be seen as a buying opportunity. Anyway. I decided against and am now holding a fair amount of cash going into January.
Happy new year )

Hi Danger_Mouse.. Cheers ))
Yes, PAF has been the main success story in my portfolio, now my largest holding more than making up for some of the mistakes.
Still undervalued and slow to react but by 2024 they'll be a 250k producer and the dividends could easily be several pence, that means an SP way above today's 16p level.

Cheers Damofarl. I can understand also why Marble could be more attractive as an investment right now too due to the takeover, the larger group does feels like it could provide more safety net. Bigger fund, continued strategy.
Back to FAIR... This buyback will last a long long time.
GL

Hi Kentio.
I'm just looking at MPLF (Marble Point Loan Financing) today, so I'm curious to ask.
What was the main uncertainty issue that made you pull out, and how is FAIR less uncertain than ?
I note that not a single investment is named specifically but the strategy is laid out with a maximum of 1.5% of total portfolio exposure to a particular investment across a wide range of sectors ( I can't say the same about my own portfolio ).

I am in the same boat Allenby. Slowly watching my investment disappear.
I this their 'Last chance saloon'.. ?
They have some deals pipelined and the Market Cap looks less than their current cash. I've averaged down this week using a dividend from elsewhere so that in my head at least, I'm not averaging down with anymore investing capital.

Hi Damofarl
"Seems all very much boring business as usual..."
Which is exactly why we all like being invested in TORO, all things rollercoaster elsewhere as the weeks go by as we receive a high yield. Today was a smile as I did a bunch of trades across ISA's/Trading Accounts reinvesting the dividends that landed today.

Pretty flat considering the gold price and USD/ZAR rate still very healthy.
The loan notes/debt funding amount is vastly more than the Mintails project, and is at such a level that it seems it could fund all and every possible project. Not sure the market quite sees it as separate to the debt free 200k oz pa business but this is way better than the SP crash to 6p/7p when the last debt agreement was signed.
Surely a rise back to 20p is on the cards now all the DRIPs have been done IMO

Well this is great !!
Glad to be holding. We may even get dividends with this fantastic deal too.

Do what you like Temple. I don't understand why you're arguing and so bothered in the first place.
GL.

Got a good price for my DRIP today, 85p. Still holding off on a new tranche just yet though.