More Positive News23 Aug 2023 15:17
Interest rates will peak at 5.5pc, economists have predicted, as data showed the UK’s private sector suffered its weakest month in more than two years in August.
Markets have been sent into turmoil after data showed the UK’s manufacturing and services sectors suffered their worst month of output since the first winter Covid lockdown in 2021.
Two and 10-year gilt yields were more than 10 basis points lower on the day and the pound dropped as much as 0.9pc against the dollar after the latest S&P Global/CIPS flash UK purchasing managers’ index delivered a reading of 47.9, indicating the first contraction in output since January.
Just last week, 10-year gilt yields had hit their highest levels since 2008 just above 4.7pc.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the data and market turmoil will not stop the Bank of England from raising interest rates from 5.25pc to 5.5pc in September, “but it will encourage it that higher rates are working”.
He said: “Overall, the dual signs of weaker activity and easing price pressures give us a bit more confidence in our view that interest rates will peak around 5.5pc rather than the 6pc priced into the markets before this release.”
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, said: “While a further hike in interest rates in September looks to be on the cards, the August PMI data will add to speculation that rates could soon peak.”
Rhys Herbert, senior economist at Lloyds Bank, said there are “increasing concerns about output growth, which the Bank of England will need to consider carefully in its next decision for interest rates”.