Member Info for GarethUK

Remember that:

- in ICC1 we went for $6.7m and were awarded $9.7m including interest at 14%

- AC has consistently said that ICC2 is our strongest case of the 3 against Tunisia

- the decision has always been due by mid July

- in ICC2 we are going for $130m including interest. When we win, the award will be closer to $200m following the pattern of ICC1.

I’ve said frequently that the current/recent sp is a gift, and it is!

Give it a month and I am confident that things will look very different. Just ignore these small movements in the meantime as they are irrelevant, unless you have a bit of spare cash to put in.

SC,

Very interesting comparison.

Would you be willing to add figures for ZEN on the basis of a conservative forecast of where we might be in a few years time?

StockCheque,

Thanks very much for taking the time and trouble to post. All incredibly helpful in enabling insight into what might lie ahead.

SC,

Ah, yes, that makes more sense and supports the case for retaining the shares over the longer term which is clearly what AC is aiming at.

SC,

Very interesting calculations and definitely not the kind of analysis I am capable of!

If your theory proves correct, what do you think the sp would settle at?

I have to say that I found that special dividend to be disappointing, so I hope they distribute more and retain a little less for developing the business. AC has consistently referenced rewarding long suffering shareholders. Let’s hope the reward is really meaningful.

Thanks for posting the link.

Only new insight I got from it was that the Tunisians have still not begun to talk with him about a possible settlement. So shortsighted on their part, but consistent with the line they’ve taken historically in not engaging seriously.

They’re going to find their country facing a very large bill, and having substantial assets confiscated to pay it.

SC,

Yes, agreed, I was just making the point that 28 March is a couple of weeks later than 14 March.

I forgot about this post which, if correct, would mean the judgement is delayed slightly.

The Lady Of Aim @LadyOfAim • 17/03/2025

SMP 'Medical emergency' card played in court last week, Delay to late 2025 requested. Judge says, 'Nice try'-March 28th it is. SMP's recurring delays, including a €30k fine in 2023 expose lack of confidence in their case. A decisive victory is on the horizon.

#ChessNotCheckers

Two biggish trades at the end of today at £8k and £14k.

Coincidence?

The final hearing of the case against SMP in the Paris Commercial Court was held on 14 March. The decision was to be announced in 3 months time. That is now, or at least imminently. Maybe tomorrow (18 June) or if not, next week.

A lot of valuable reassurance and some new news from this interview.

1. ‘Now there is the activity of enforcement on the first claim’

2. Priority is preparing for the 3rd arbitration in DC - ICSID.

3. Renewables to be based in EU or jurisdictions that respect the law.

4. Talked about ‘empathy for the victim especially if the victim can get back over $600m’

5. Later in the interview referenced getting back ‘$642m from the 3 pots of arbitration’

6. Talked about getting that back ‘in bits and pieces or at once in a settlement’ and said ‘we should be enthusiastic about the money we will get’

7. Described $20m gross income per annum with very little expenses, from 20 mega of solar by the end of the year. Said that business alone would value ZEN at around $200m.

8. That valuation was separate from further investment of cash into solar following the awards from the 3 arbitrations.

Further confirmation that the current sp is a gift!

Just got to take note of what AC is saying, that’s all. That’s really the only guidance that gives an indication of what’s likely to happen, special dividends and all.

On dividends, he has said ZEN would pay a special dividend on each court victory, as soon as the company has the money in the bank for each one.

Your original question related to future strategy, that’s why my response was related to the future.

SC,

Totally agree, and what you have set out here in detail has been echoed by AC every time he has talked about future strategy for ZEN. He has said several times now, that he only wants to do business in future in jurisdictions where the government can be trusted.

I don’t think this discussion has any mileage in it at all. There is absolutely no way that ZEN would ever put a dime into Tunisia again.

All helpful to profile and the sp:

CoTec Holdings Corp. and Mkango

Resources (MKA) announced HyProMag

USA, LLC, a Delaware corporation has received a Make More in America (MMIA) domestic finance letter of interest ("LOI") from the U.S. Export-Import ("EXIM") Bank for its first integrated rare earth recycling and magnet making facility in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. In terms of the letter, EXIM may be able to consider potential financing of up to $92 million of the project's costs with a repayment tenor of 10 years.

Comment: The magic ingredient as far as

MKA and any other company in its space is getting the quantum of cash to move forward. It would appear that today's announcement shows that the company is on its way in terms of the funding issue.

All pointing one way:

- SMP / Congo ruling potentially before the end of June;

- ICC2 before the end of July;

- potentially a settlement with Tunisia in the autumn.

If not, Tunisia is in for a bill of over $900m once ICSID has been heard.

SC,

Yes, agree completely with your thinking. I believe they have started to take us seriously just in the past couple of months. This will lead to a victory in all 3 cases against Tunisia sooner rather than later.

Hi Florida, have missed your contributions! Not SC, but I think I can help!

ZEN’s claim against SMP had its final hearing on 14 March, and it stated then that its decision should be published within 3 months (ie mid June).

SMP’s attempt to delay proceedings was rejected.

As with our cases against Tunisia, we have been represented by extremely experienced counsel in the form of Charles Russell Speechlys. Also similarly to the 3 cases against Tunisia, our assets in Congo were seized (illegally) and the circumstances seem pretty clear cut.

AC has said publicly that he is confident of a win.

Good decision. My whole family and I have put our houses on it 😆