Member Info for GarethUK

Max19,

Thanks very much, that’s very helpful. Confirms the huge potential for it.

I am new to Kazera but am keen to know more. Is there an up to date summary of what it has going for it anywhere that I could see, please?

Very interesting post on Norwegian site which would explain why AC and the team were so shocked at the decision.

I have recently come across information that may be relevant to the ICC-2 arbitration case between Zenith Energy and Tunisia, in particular relating to questions of the tribunal’s impartiality.

Documentation shows that Cecilia Carrara, who is the chair of the arbitral tribunal in the ICC-2 case, participated as a tribunal member in a professional training session entitled “La pratique de conseil en arbitrage” in Tunis, Tunisia, from 20 to 22 November 2023. The event was organised by the IFRIQYA Arbitration Forum in collaboration with ICC Tunisia and SOAS University of London, and aimed to train and further develop the competence of lawyers, judges and jurists in the field of international arbitration.

It is also confirmed through documentation that Professor Walid Ben Hamida, who represents Tunisia in the ICC-2 arbitration case, participated together with Cecilia Carrara as a member of the same tribunal during this training session. Although the event itself was professionally oriented, it nevertheless indicates a direct professional connection between the chair of the tribunal Carrara and Tunisia’s party-appointed representative.

Links to the sources:

* Official program of the event: [ https://ifriqyaarbitration.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/FORAMTION-SOAS\_IFRIQYA\_NOVEMBRE-2023-1.pdf ]( https://ifriqyaarbitration.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/FORAMTION-SOAS_IFRIQYA_NOVEMBRE-2023-1.pdf )

* Summary of the event: [ https://ifriqyaarbitration.org/2024/12/05/retour-sur-la-formation-soas-ifriqya-sur-la-pratique-du-conseil-en-arbitrage/ ]( https://ifriqyaarbitration.org/2024/12/05/retour-sur-la-formation-soas-ifriqya-sur-la-pratique-du-conseil-en-arbitrage/ )

This finding may be worth investigating further with considering impartiality issues and possible objections to the composition of the tribunal in the ICC-2 case between Zenith Energy and Tunisia.

Thanks StockCheque, a very helpful summary.

Last week’s shock news about ICC2 was pretty devastating but the panic reaction meant a drop in the sp was totally excessive.

It will start to recover this week. If like me you hold a stack of shares in ZEN, hold and be patient as the fight is still very much on.

I have copied below the latest from Oslo.

From investornytt.no

I must admit, I’m furious as a shareholder (well, former shareholder after this mess) – I lost nearly half a million NOK on this nonsense. On the other hand, the company itself seems shocked and claims there were procedural errors. Andrea Cattaneo, whom I spoke to, was visibly frustrated and surprised. Much of the same is reflected in the company's stock exchange announcements. So, not a lot of new information, really.

That said, I do expect insider buying next week, which would clearly act as a catalyst.

The largest claim is still very much alive – everyone thought this was the end of the line, game over.

What might be the most under-communicated point is this: Thursday’s decision had nothing to do with the major claim of over half a billion. This is extremely important.

Raharh,

You’ve expressed it really well for many of us, I suspect.

A very disappointing result this week but the fight is bigger than just this stage of ICC2. I’m very happy to give it another 18 months.

Keep posting StockCheque, really appreciate your analysis.

Thanks too to 190945 - very interesting if I ever have some cash again.

A shattering result and contrary to all of the indicators from AC.

SC,

What’s the significance of the RNS posted just now ref repayment of 2026 bonds?

StockCheque,

Totally agree with that. My only hesitation is that the outcome has been clear since the judgement on ICC1 and all they’ve done is to play silly buggers ever since.

Let’s hope they now wise up given the disastrous consequences for them if they don’t.

Tunisia are F’d and their bullying tactics with AC have completely failed. They have totally misjudged him and will pay a high price for that. We will all be the beneficiaries.

We will very soon have confirmation of a win in the region of $200m on ICC2. The only question then is how long it will take Tunisia to settle, or alternatively face a total bill of around $1bn if they don’t.

A couple more Lady of Aim posts just now saying we have definitely won ICC2 and that the award will be ‘MASSIVE’

StockCheque,

You are right to mention the Congo case as a decision was due approximately 3 months from 28 March. The indicators were that we have won it with the other side requesting a procedural stay, and the court rejecting it and awarding us interim costs. A win would mean $9m + for ZEN.

That’s in addition to the 3 cases against Tunisia, of course.

SC,

I hadn’t considered the prospect of an upward surge from a higher base, but that would be exciting.

In reality, if the decision comes exactly when the court said, then we will get the RNS - probably - in a week’s time, or if not then just a couple of days later. Interesting that LoA said the same re timing.

SC,

The ascending wedge, cup and handle, and double bottom will all be blown out of the water as soon as get that RNS 😆

Everything now hinging on a positive RNS confirming a win on ICC2, hopefully coming in a week’s time

Nordinvestor,

I think there is zero chance of a settlement before the outcome of ICC2. The Tunisians must have known back in April that they had lost when the hearing closed. AC certainly made it clear, though indirectly, that we had won.

And despite that knowledge, Tunisia has made absolutely no attempt to settle in the 3 months since.

I think it’s more likely that a win for ZEN will be announced in the next 10 days, then perhaps the Tunisians will wake up to the fact that they are going to lose ICSID as well, and to avoid paying a total of around $1bn, they will have to settle.

AC now holds all the cards and they need to come to him with an acceptable offer, along the lines StockCheque suggests.

Thanks StockCheque,

Very interesting to read the treaty under which the claim against Tunisia is being brought. It came into force in January 1990 and is still current. Tunisia has breached so many parts of that treaty, it’s hard to believe they have any defence at all.

According to AC, they offered less than 5% of the evidence in ICC1 and were reprimanded by the tribunal. ICC2 won’t have been any better and we can fully expect news of a win within the next fortnight.

As StockCheque suggests, the 3rd and by far biggest case feels easily as clear cut.

That will land Tunisia with a bill approaching $1bn across all 3 cases if they let ICSID run its course.

Their only way of avoiding the full penalty is to settle.

AC has reiterated recently that he remains open to discussing a settlement. Tunisia needs to get talking and reach agreement fast. This is only heading one way.

SC,

I think that’s entirely likely.

AC has lined up a first class team, and not just lawyers.

I could see the value for all 3 claims getting close to $1bn.

You would think that the Tunisians would see that as a compelling reason to reach a settlement quickly.

However, certainly back in February AC told me that they weren’t at all serious, making derisory suggestions and insulting him and the team into the bargain. He was very dismissive of them.

Maybe they’ve woken up now, but we won’t know that for a while.

Correction - in ICC2 we are going for $130m PLUS interest etc, not including. That’s partly why the award will be closer to $200m than $130m