Member Info for GarethUK

Callit - could be cod and chips all round, with salt and vinegar lol

Can we perhaps look forward and move on? A big week coming up that will at the very least give us a clearer idea about a shorter timetable for arbitrations 2 and 3.

However, it might possibly deliver more. Maybe the Tunisian government will face up to the reality that 2 and 3 are going to go the same way as 1, and cut their losses and settle. Andrea Cattaneo has clearly been turning up the pressure on them.

If and when we reach a settlement, we can jump ship with SIPPs or ISAs (my case) nicely enhanced. Or, if the company puts forward a compelling case for its future direction (more fossil fuel or green, it doesn’t matter as long as it’s convincing enough about profit potential) holders might stay onboard.

All great possibilities, no losers amongst shareholders.

Gallmat,

Thanks so much for incredibly helpful summary and I will follow up as you suggest as I’m coming from a low starting point.

One more question and that is whether you have any feel for timeframe?

Thanks. Am heavily invested in ZEN but bought into PAT today for the first time.

From Zak Mir just now:

Comment: The reminder in this RNS that the Indian Government actually auctioned off part of the Bhukia Project, reminds us once again that developing countries seem to have a compulsion to behave like developing countries. This should be an open and shut case for PAT, even though there are certainly more than four stages to reach this particular arbitration nirvana.

Excellent and very helpful analysis, thanks Florida.

I’m already very heavily invested but took the opportunity to add more through a series of buys in the first hour of trading today all at 0.059. Had no trouble securing the stock, somewhat surprisingly.

Rider75,

Thanks for the your thoughts, which are much appreciated. I saw you had been posting on PAT, which is why I asked.

I am heavily invested in ZEN but may find a little cash to have a go with PAT. Thanks again.

Rider75

What are your thoughts on investing in ZEN versus PAT.L?

Thoughts on the value of the company if (when) Zen retakes ownership of its Tunisian assets in full?

Both of you - please DON’T stop posting!

Done! Relief!

I’ve been in and out of Alphawave a lot over the years, but it is SO frustrating and unpredictable. The share movements feel like they are being pumped and dumped, like a 10% rise on Friday for no apparent reason, and the company is terrible at managing any news.

Will it go above 120 next week before crashing again?

I will sell on the next significant rise and not come back again. There are much better prospects elsewhere, although it pains me a bit to say it as I’ve believed strongly in them in the past.

Good luck to you - you’ve offered consistently good analysis over the months.

Thanks for more great analysis, StockCheque

I and my family have put far more into ZEN than any other stock we’ve owned, and some of us have been investing successfully for decades. Time will prove us right, and all of us who have done our homework and invested heavily will enjoy life changing benefits as a result.

You deserve the huge benefits that will soon come to us.

‘Cod and chips twice’ for the trolls, as someone else said lol

I’d make one simple point in relation to the eventual settlement amount. That is, if you accept that Zenith is currently valued at between £15-20m, and that there is a good likelihood of a positive outcome in the second and third arbitrations (look at the wording of the judgement in the first), then even one-quarter of the potential total (at over US$600) is going to be out of all proportion to the current SP. Even on a conservative but realistic evaluation, all investors will gain hugely.

Remember too that there may well be a special dividend in addition to the natural movement in SP to take account of future prospects if they retain control of a very profitable business.

Thanks for another well informed post, SC.

On contributions/posts generally, I think it’s blindingly obvious who has read and analysed the history and taken account of the facts, and those who haven’t and probably can’t be bothered to.

We should just ignore the latter and move on.

The well informed posts are really constructive, informative and in the end, very helpful to those of us serious about investing.

Completely agree, reward for keeping the faith starting to materialise. I bought originally on the strength of an incredibly large insider trade at around 22p if I recall correctly

Just reward for keeping the faith!

Very wise, I did the same on Monday morning and spent between 8am and 8.45am buying all the stock that became available.

Bought a few £000 more at the start of today just to top up an already huge holding.

This is as sure a prospect as I’ve ever been part of and I’ve been investing for decades. As I said before, for those of us who have gone large on ZEN, it’s going to be life changing.

Exactly, SC.

Remember too that Tunisia will incur interest charges of $80k plus pm. They will want to settle rather than let the process run the full course.