Member Info for Gambier14

“It’s not to say it’s a done deal like many believe here but the facts are, the government want to make decisions with regional collaboration and the Sami are a regional influence so they need their collaboration”

This is true. I work from the hypothesis that the central factor in a political decision is how that decision plays out for the politicians themselves. A mine will create jobs and will stimulate important economic activity - possible plaudits for the politicians. A mine will also create negative environmental publicity which would become international if you involve world heritage - possible condemnation for the politicians.

I don’t believe politicians care strongly about the actual benefits or costs of a mine, in as much as they actually only care about how that argument plays out politically with voters and general political manoeuvring. That is a working hypothesis based on a inbuilt belief that most senior level politicians are careerist. Looking at how the extraction of commodities occurs across the world, I would say that hypothesis works much more accurately than one which operates on the idea that politicians will make decisions objectively and not be directed by the political consequences.

Objectively, I don’t know how anybody cannot see that the benefits of a mine at Kallak outweighs the costs - it seems so strongly weighted by benefits. Politically, I can easily see how the costs of a mine outweighs the benefits.

“I believe all FF23 means is they hope the share price carries through to wednesday and doesn't sip before AIM opens”.

Try actually reading my post. The SEK Tues close will inform you of the Wed AIM open, there is no waiting unless you want to trade tomorrow. It makes no difference. If the AIM was open tomorrow you wouldn’t be any better informed.

And don’t tell me how to post. As long as I post with the rules of the LSE forum, it is nothing to do with you.

“I agree, however you won't be able to trade tomorrow. If the share price falls, the only thing we can do is grin and bear it”

But there will be no ‘suspense’, the price in Sweden is equivalent in the UK. If there was a profitable difference it would arbitraged away, but there isn’t because of the price equivalence and frictions in trading between markets.

“A tad frustrating that we have to wait until Wednesday to see if it follows through to AIM”

Are you taking the mick? Do you genuinely not understand a dual listing? How many times have you repeated this drivel and been told that there are no arbitrage profits between the two markets? Nobody has to wait until Wednesday. If on Tuesday close / Wed open the SEK value is up, the AIM equivalent will open on Wednesday morning.

“Sj74 I believe tomorrow is another bank holiday so we won't see until Wednesday...ah the suspense is killing me”

Whatever happens on the market in Sweden will be transposed to the AIM, there are no arbitrage profits between the two listings. So the U.K. market being closed is irrelevant as you can just use the open market in Sweden as AIM by proxy.

“I'm trying to imagine a state between excited and despondent...just calmly happy...imagine it, what would the world be like if everyone had always been just calmly happy? It sound like the state of hell to me”

Imagine your investment decisions influenced your state of mind to such an extent that you needed to be emotional about movements in the stock market. Imagine instead, you made smart investments and put them in a drawer, getting on with you life without a worry in the world. Occasionally returning to the investment, as and when required.

“@gambier, indeed information gleaned ftom others that you've missed, that may well inform an opinion, if its tipping point in your judgement call”

No, it wouldn’t. I accept an investment on the basis that I made it. If I find out information that is an objective fact, then the person listing that fact hasn’t changed my opinion, the fact has changed my opinion. The somebody posted it, is simply a matter of sequence.

My reference is to a post made by somebody offering a subjective opinion on whether this a ‘pump and dump’. Anybody making investment decisions on subjective opinions like that, is a degenerate moron.

“If thats the case...why exactly are you reading these posts...“

Any reference to news I might not have noticed. General mining news in Sweden.

If somebody has a particularly negative or positive spin on that news, it wouldn't cause me to buy or sell. I can make my own assessment. Which is my point.

“Without a decision, it's always a pump and dump. Whether over a couple of days or a couple of weeks.
Thor must stamp his authority immediately.
To let this stagnate yet again tars him with the same brush as Damberg and Baylan”

What goes up on the hope news, can go down when it doesn’t appear.

“It might be semantics, or it might have been an innocent misguided attempt to explain the recent activities but a pump and dump comment has serious connotations for amateur or new investors reading these boards for guidance”

If somebody is making investments like that, they shouldn’t be anyway near a trading account. People can post what they want within the rules, if somebody is so idiotic to make investment decisions based on a poster of a board, that is their own look out.

“The facts haven't changed Gambier”

Yes, they have. It is a fact that an element of a government that was totally opposed to a mine, no longer has the influence they once had. And this is critical because the problem has been one of dysfunctional government based on conflicting influences.

“iibj/ change of tune now then”

Updating his view as the facts change. That is what any reasonable person does. And the facts have changed. I hope he keeps posting.

If the concession is granted, the initial rise will be animal spirits of small investors who in the most part will be making personal decisions about their investment.

Following that you would be looking at the company spending significant sums making more accurate estimates of the ore deposit. You would also here news / rumours of potential large investors / partners / takeovers. That would then drive the share price.

It is possible that the initial SP jump would exceed the general SP during that second period, only for it to then be surpassed on concrete announcements. Maybe it will be perfectly incremental and after a initial surge followed by a plateau it will be followed by more moves up.

Maybe the concession is declined and the SP collapses in days.

Nobody can tell you what will happen initially (they don’t know, metrics or not) nor can they tell you what to do (it is personal).

Assuming the concession is granted I’m selling on the initial surge as per my typical trading strategy of small company investing. If the concession is not granted, I will right it off without worry as per my typical trading strategy of small company investing.

“What is a realistic price this could go to if permission was granted??”

Oh, and another piece of advice “I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend”

“What is a realistic price this could go to if permission was granted??”

Imagine your own price, at this point it won’t be any less valid than anybody else’s imagination. If a price comes to you in a very profound dream, let me know, as I have yet to imagine my own exit price.

“The Sami can have nothing to add to their previously submitted statements which say anything new or different”

I agree. Simple reiteration of their opposition to nearly everything. Compensation for anything that doesn’t go their way is a given.

Any Swedish government that makes a decision will be making that decision based on what has been known for years. The information has always existed but the desire to make a decision has not. The only difference with this government is the apparent desire to make a decision.

Anything outside of the old information and the new desire to make a decision, is noise.

“gambier mind if i ask whats your position here and your thoughts for friday”

I don’t take notice of supposed dates for announcements. Swedens political systems / institutions have proved to be wholly unreliable in this matter.

My position is that BEM has a significant iron ore deposit (with early indication of very high grade - further development required) and that the resource is significant enough to warrant a concession based on geo-strategic importance (I think this is understated), economic benefit and limited environmental impact.

My belief on investing was that the Swedish government would see it the same way and move it forward. I didn’t anticipate the the gross obtuseness of the Swedish political system (I always thought Sweden to be a country of rule of law and economic practicality). I got this totally wrong.

My guess is that a concession will be given and there will be interest by other parties in a joint development, news of that will push the SP much higher than 10p. I would sell on the big upswing, with a general idea of selling early into the upswing to bank the profit, knowing that I might lose significant upside. (I started inventing at 1p and added at prices as high as 5p, I have just over 3 million shares - so higher than many on here)

I don’t believe anybody has accurate enough data on the deposit to start making hyperbolic claims for valuations. The initial upswing will be based much more on wild spirits of investors in any case. If the deposit is a good as the best case scenario might indicate, then valuations will obviously be much higher than any initial upswing.

That is my guesswork and strategy for BEM.

“11p over there”

It is the equivalent price over here. No arbitrage profits available unfortunately.

“13% rise yesterday in last hour 5% today and the chatter here is virtually non existent funny.
maybe folks are stunned into silence and eager anticipation for friday”

Not really. The chatter is typically your hyperbolic claims for valuations or good news. Any reasonably minded person who is positive about BEM would discount much of what you post as much as they would discount the hyperbolic negative.

“Sorry where did the sp end ?”

At a price that in no way demonstrates anybody's ability to predict accurately share price movement from the bid / ask. Which once again is basic trading knowledge, in fact the most basic understanding of how a trade works. I cannot believe there are people who buy shares who do not even have an understanding of the most basic elements of share trading.