Member Info for Gambier14

“Nice close. Wasn't expecting that, was just expecting consolidation around 8 for a little while longer before carrying on up but we will take it lol”

Why would you not expect that? The liquidity in this share is poor. Anybody who wants to buy / sell decent amounts will move the price considerably. That is the stupidity of people talking of the bid / ask in a way that suggests that they have some insight into the direction of the share.

If this share gets onto the radar of more small investors on the belief that the granting of a concession is likely (say more talk from the government), then with poor liquidity the SP is likely to jump up aggressively. Also with some negative talk you might see a big jump down.

There is nothing mystical or conspiratorial about any of this. Basic trading.

“Easy to sell here now funny that!” “This is a strong buy right here NOW”

Meaningless. It is a low volume share with poor liquidity. There can large changes in either direction.

“FFS - another P&D?”

It was solid news, but is it enough to sustain an elevated SP? Only time will tell. Still a small volume share so anything is possible.

“Disappointing to see personal attacks on here. It says more about you as a person. Please be civil and stick to facts”

You mean this ridiculously exaggerated valuations or over the top claims for ‘news next week’. They seem to be acceptable but they aren’t ‘facts’ . If you are triggered by an alternative opinion on a share board because it is negative, maybe you should consider your own mental well-being, rather tell other people how or whether they should post.

I hope those people who have a pessimistic view continue to post. Whether I agree with them or not is irrelevant. I want to hear all sides. If something is posted as fact and you have evidence to contrary, then post it. If somebody is offering a subjective opinion, take it for what it is.

“Not the great start to the week everyone wanted/expected , but the Finnish news is good”

I would say it is to be expected. Solid news on the government decision making process basically doubled the share price. Would I buy extra (or would you?) at say 15p - 20p just on this one piece of news ? No, I wouldn’t. If anybody thinks this represents shockingly good value against the news, they can pile in now and drive the SP higher. Some people are quoting a £1 billion valuation on here which would make the current SP a no-brainer

If it dropped back down to 5p to 6p I would certainly buy more. I just don’t see that happening.

“Telling people they are wrong doesn’t make you right, Gambier, you have to prove it to do that. Now, off you go to the filter room. You’ve said nothing useful since you reappeared so I’m sure I won’t miss anything”

I have already explained why what you said was wrong. I will continue to correct any other conspiratorial drivel that you post, whether you listen to it or not (filter - how childish).

There are NO arbitrage profits between the two markets and for every buy there is somebody on the other end. Is that clear enough for anybody who doesn’t understand trading systems?

It looks like there is genuine cause to believe that the government will treat the application with the due seriousness it deserves. So the next few months will be of genuine interest. I hope everybody who has an opinion posts, negative or positive.

If you post something factually incorrect or conspiratorial, don’t be surprised if somebody counters it.

If you own shares and can’t control your emotions, that is your problem.

“Long term readers of this bb will recall your pompous postings years ago under a different Gambier ID. Then, as now, you made lofty statements about how things work as though an expert and derided anyone who disagreed as uninformed, unwise or stupid”

But your posts about the dual listing were totally ill informed - they were hopelessly wrong. Whether that is because you are stupid or unwise I would never pass comment.

Ownership of shares has nothing to do with the validity of a persons posting. People who own shares can talk tosh and people who hold none can talk sense.

I own a significant amount of BEM and could cash in now at a good profit. I don’t think I will as I think a concession will be granted and the SP will be much higher.

If somebody had an opinion as to why that is not a good idea, I would want them to post that opinion. As long as it is well reasoned and isn’t full of conspiratorial drivel, I will take it on board.

Maybe whether you can control your emotions would be a better arbiter of who should post, not share ownership.

“Your posts are a welcome departure from the absolute nonsense posted by most on here getting giddy for no other reason than wishful thinking”

Most of the nonsense you see posted on these forums take the form of conspiratorial drivel about trading systems (when there are quite simple explanations) and people who can’t control their emotions (triggered by anybody that posts things that damage their fragile hopes).

My guess is there will be a concession granted and the SP will be higher than this. I don’t know when that will happen or what will happen to the SP in the meantime.

I would sell early on any announcement and have no interest in seeing production. I also accept that this SP could easily drift down and be bogged down by further delays and with a big fat no at the end of it.

I have a very low entry price but have been punished by opportunity cost of being invested for longer than I anticipated. So I got that completely wrong. I might also be wrong about the concession because politicians are … well politicians

“There’s been a discrepancy of the same order for days on end. Running orders or pass the parcel, whichever party game you fancy the disparity hasn’t been less than the market spread at any point, oh wise one“

More drivel. If you tried to arbitrage the profit they would just cancel orders. You really have no clue what you are talking about. Try actually learning how a dual listing works.

Nobody should listen to this complete rubbish.

“Where do you reckon this has potential to run to in the upcoming week? 12p?”

A rise based on positive talk from a government that in a previous form had avoided making decisions on a concession. Your guess is as good as anybody else’s.

The granting of the concession and a more detailed analysis of value of the ore, then you might reasonably ask for objective valuations.

As it stands, it is good news upon which you can cash in or hold if you believe better news lies ahead.

“Except that the bid in Sweden is 11.89p and the ask on AIM is 10.5p (moments ago). Box of nonsense? Get in it”

Complete drivel. They are running orders not playing pass the parcel. Do you have any understanding of how a dual listing is operated?

“There tends to be a constant disparity between here and Sweden which tends to be higher than us based on current exchange rates”

The disparity is an illusion. Any difference is always less than the retail spread, so there is no arbitrage profit available.

So there is no difference in any practical reality. It can be put in the same box of nonsense as those who say there are more buys than sells on a given day.

For a retail trader of BEM the problem you face buying / selling stock is the poor liquidity. The MMs are not trying to cultivate any elaborate scam, they are trying to manage lumpy trading.

“Can a more experienced investor please explain to me how right up to the close of business the sp was tapping on the door of 9p and the sp closed minutes later with an uncrossing trade of a mere £350 at 7.25p?”

It is a simple (lack of) liquidity issue. A large trade for this share is actually a small number in absolute terms. The UT is just auction, the system just sequences the list of trades as if they are all the same type.

In simple terms, the ‘final SP’ is 8.5 / 9.25 Bid / Offer.

All things being equal, if tomorrows trading was an exact extension of this evenings trading, the trades would start over 9 p.

“Im not sure why you cannt discern the difference, but have it your way. But note that none of the issues you quote in your definition of country risk apply to the current proposals here.”

I never said they did nor implied that they did. My point is (and has consistently been) that none of this is a surprise and therefore should have been taken into account when the opportunity to sell at high 40s / low 50s presented itself.

Try actually reading my posts instead offering an answer to a question I never posed. The cash flows that were being extrapolated into the future by some posters on here, ignored the country / shareholder risk. Hence why they couldn't understand why the market wasn’t valuing the company higher. They thought they had discovered value that others could not see - they hadn’t.

I didn’t know this was going to happen with any great precision. But built into my profit taking decision was a delisting or an announcement of unusual accounting practices / major shareholder behaviour. I could never see the market valuing it much higher and always thought the major shareholder was always ready to take control of the assets.

I was merely trying to offer this as an alternative view to the blind rampers who were obtusely repeating ‘cash, cash, cash’. I happened to be right on this occasion.

“concert party risk that has enabled this, not country risk”

It is country risk. Oil and gas assets, contracts , tax exemptions, drilling rights etc in Russia and Ukraine are obtained in let’s say, very unusual circumstances. Even true ownership of stakes in a company are very hard to determine.

This is regardless of where the company is listed. You buy these shares when they bottom out and take profits quickly - knowing the market does not have trust in the longterm - something unusual always happens with these companies.

Those people who tried to hype this share based on cash flows may have misdirected investors from these risks. That is unfortunate. Some of us tried to offer the alternative view.

“Not really, This is not country risk, where, Ukrainian governance/legalities/corruption screw you.
It is London listed, and the outrage is being perpetrated in the UK. The risk s/holders have overlooked is having control in the hands of a concert party of major shareholders who can do as they just have”

Yes, really. The major shareholders made their position in the company because it was a Ukraine operation. Do a bit of research and find out why. The companies that have assets in Russia, Ukraine et al constantly end up with shareholders who take control in unusual ways. Again, do some research.

The listing rules are crystal clear. If you couldn’t be bothered reading them before investing, keep you money in the bank. No right to complain whatsoever.

It was a share to trade, any simpleton ought to have been able to see that.

“Gambier - You really are a pompous prick”

Ooooh Betty!

“ I have most likely made far more money than you over the last couple of years in JKX”

Of course you have.

“almost criminally”

Exactly - not criminally.

“It might not be criminal but it's pretty close. It certainly isn't what you would expect from a company listed on the main market.”

It is either criminal or it isn’t. A market rule has been broken or it hasn’t. If this isn’t what you would expect then you don’t understand the rules and probably shouldn't be invested in a company like this.

A number of times it was pointed out that this is a share to trade. It was never investment quality. The alarm was flashing and ringing from the most cursory of research.

Some people kept blindly thinking they were the only ones who could see the cash flows. The market could see the cash flows - but it could also see the country of operation, the legal disputes and the major shareholders. Just looking at cash is a simpletons valuation.

"its criminal' - It's just figure of speech. You got the trade right congrats“

No. It is a figure of speech when it used in a context of something that is obviously not criminal e.g. the price of a drink in that place is criminal. In the post it was used in a paragraph in which it was suggested that the AIM regulators should intervene to stop proceedings - which they couldn’t do unless there was a law / rule being broken - which there isn’t. Often on these forums small investors who are losing out like to invent criminal conspiracies to cover for there poor investment decisions.

It was cash generation in the context of being in the Ukraine and having certain major shareholders . So this sort of thing was always a risk. It is perfectly fair to conclude that not selling at current highs was a poor investment decision. Live with it.