Member Info for Gambier14

“Its criminal”

But it isn’t though, is it? There is no criminality involved whatsoever. This is a small share, located in a risky jurisdiction with a particular type of major shareholder. This risk has been priced into JKX for years.

Presumably any investor who had done the most basic amount of research would know this and would have factored it into their decisions. The opportunity to sell in the high 40s / low 50s was a gift on a plate. How people didn’t take it, I struggle to understand. The confusion amongst many on here as to why the SP didn’t reflect the cash position suggests they hadn’t done this basic amount of research.

It isn’t fraud because it isn’t illegal. It is the risk of investing in these sorts of countries. The potential for this type of action was what always limited the JKX share price. That is why I always traded the share and never saw it as an investment.

Is the offer price fair value? No, probably not. Any reasonable person can see that an offer price in the 50s would have been more equitable. But it was always a risk to wait for fair value in a company that is run by people who do not always play fair.

So it was a big risk to buy in at anything in the 40s, so no real case for complaint. I just hope nobody was suckered in by some of the ramping drivel on here over the last few weeks.

“Anyone notice the £41000 buy yesterday late on and now NT to buy £8000 someone collecting imo”

Yeah and people on the other end selling £41k. Meaningless.

“Opportunities like this do not appear very often”

What arriving late to the party after the share price has more then doubled? Hoping to jump on a potential second leg up when the initial driving force is already priced in?

That does appear often, most months in fact.

No, I’m not, I sold at 48p after buying in at 17p in 2020. Years previously I have bought JKX at mid teens and sold at 30s.

JKX has a tendency to go off the radar with small investors and the SP just shrinks away regardless of its solid financial and cash generative position. Will be watching closely to see if this can drop back into the 20s and I can put my winnings back in. An unlikely event considering the very high gas price and the string tail winds behind that price. But who knows, an opportunity for fourth doubling of my money might become available, JKX has been the most predictable share for me over the years.

“Higher possible with new wells on-going converting C2 to P2, on-going asset sales and whatever corporate actions the swelling cash provoke”

Agreed. Well success + successful asset sales + new strategy focusing on Ukraine + resolution of legal disputes + sustained high gas prices = possible move into the 60s - 70s. I can very well see that.

However, many people who are late to the party are just shouting gas prices and cash generation. Much of that is already priced in to the SP. Gas prices are not the reason to buy in now, they were the reason to buy in when the SP was sub 20 - a cash generative business with very fine gas assets in a lowish gas price period brought down by an unconnected global pandemic. A great value buy.

To buy in at this price you must believe that the company can capitalise on current gas prices by making a lot smart moves and some doing some great negotiation. Then hope for some luck at the drill bit. Nothing wrong with that belief, but there has to be a realisation of that being the compelling story.

“Really surprised at the level of drop here”

Why? People who bought when there was very obvious value have taken profit.

If you were to buy in now you need a compelling story beyond just gas prices (gas prices being the driver of the recent price surge).

Current SP look like a reasonable ball park valuation, maybe a little low (50s probably still reasonable).

‘Gambler14 - If you don't see the difference between having $30 million extra in the bank and hoping to have $30 million extra in the bank there really is no hope for you’

As a driver for increasing this SP by 50% in three months, no I don’t see a difference.

Gas prices are solid, as is well performance. What do you think the market wants to be sure of? That the money isn’t stolen? You should have more confidence in the company.

“At the moment it's cash levels and expectation of good results over the next quarter that is driving the SP. What will increase the SP is if that expectation becomes fact. In 3 months time we should have an update showing a big jump in cash levels and hopefully a very positive outlook for the future. Then the SP could rise to the next level”

I think you are being obtuse. What is the difference knowing the rate cash generation and the actual cash. Is it: I can see the rate of cash generation according to gas prices that can’t really go anywhere and so that is 45p, but hold on, 3 months later I see a balance sheet and now it is 70p. So your position is that the SP will rise massively based on hope - hope that the market has some superstitious requirement for 3 month conversions of rate of cash generation to actual cash ?

“Gambier - The price of gas doesn't have to rise for the SP to get to 60/70p”

I didn’t say it did, that was the claim of another poster. I merely asked, according to that claim, what the gas price would need to be.

“Every month at the current high price (or even lower) is putting money in the bank - the more money in the bank the more pressure on the SP to rise”

But that is objectively true, it isn’t a new discovery for the market to make. And nobody is going to magic new gas out of nowhere in the next 6 months, so gas prices are going to be strong and that will be reflected in JKX cash generation, that is a certainty.

So something in addition to this will be needed to make a jump into the 60s or 70s. If you buy in at the 70p you will need think that it is going to go to 80+ in order to make that a rational investment. Gas prices and cash generation is leaving the SP at nearly half that.

I’m asking for the drive to those much higher SPs. At the moment people are offering nothing beyond what is already objectively known by the market.

So, disposal of assets? Maybe. Ending of court cases? Maybe. Drilling success? Maybe. Announcement of a new strategy?

“The price of gas is going up and will make it go to 60p to 70p not rocket science”

Ok, so you are assuming at the current gas price the SP is stuck around high 40s / low 50s. What price is gas going to go up to in order to get the SP into the 60s or 70s? It not being rocket science, when is this likely to happen?

“The share has risen from 15p to 55p the other day in a very short time”

No, it didn’t. It moved from the teens to mid 20s and then briefly into the 30s during 2020. Then in 2021 it dropped back down to the 20s and then increased as gas prices increased. Furthermore, you answered a point I didn’t make. I asked why the market hasn’t reacted to the current cash position / generation to push it into the the 60s or 70s. If it were to do so, why not now?

“Also I’ve been in plenty of shares in the last two years where it took the market quite awhile to catch up but they came very good in the end”

I’m talking about this share, it is not of any relevance that shares can go up in value after 2 years - of course they can. The cash position of this company is not a subjective factor, it is an objective fact. The market doesn’t need 2 years to see a financial balance. It might need years to appreciate the subjective nature of the potential an oil field or a drilling campaign or strategy to increase production. So I’m asking a simple question: what is the catalyst to push this into the 60s or 70s? It isn’t the cash position.

“Just a waiting game to allow the true value of jkx to shine through”

Waiting for what? The market is fully aware of the cash position and likely cash generation over the rest of this year. What needs to change to get the market to see value at say 60p to 70p? What is it that you can see now, that the rest of market will only begin to see in the next few months? Don’t say cash generation because every single person can see that.

It was cash generation and net cash position that made this share such good value at sub 20p. It wasn’t unreasonable to think it ought to have been 35p at the time. The rise in gas prices quite rightly pushed this up to an oscillation between high 40s and low 50s. What is the driver for the next upward price move?

The market knows of the cash position, it isn’t a hidden value. What is going to convince the market that the cash position / generation offers value at say the 60 - 70 pence range? Just repeating the cash position isn’t a sufficient explanation (or the market would have responded already - cash is an objective value). The sorting of the court cases? Another great drill result?

In effect it is doing nothing other than oscillating. Market is aware of cash generation and this is where it has sat itself. If you think there will be a greater appreciation of the cash position in the next few weeks / months, I guess you can buy in now. If you think this is how the market is valuing future cash generation, then you can stay out.

Thanks.

If gas / oil prices are maintained and JKX can continue with the odd big producing drill (which they tend to do), they will be drenched in cash and cash flows. Maybe the market will see that as a reason to value much higher than current SP.

My opinion is that the situation in Ukraine and general governance problems limit this share - some people don’t think they will ever get their hands on the cash.

Maybe I am completely wrong. Maybe I am totally misreading the share. But it doesn’t matter to me, I’m not investing, I’m trading.

Good luck to those who see it differently.

There is no way to verify anybody’s trading by what they post, so whether you believe me is not here nor there.

I was trading this 8 years ago and have dipped in three or four times, doubled twice and and taken fair profits on other occasions. So am able to see the value of the ability of this company to generate net profit against the low market valuations (when it has hit sub 20s). That has been a solid trade over the last ten years for JKX. I have always thought anything in the 40s is a bit full as a valuation and this has proven to be a smart exit point over the years.

If you believe this can go well over 40p then fine, you will be duly rewarded if it does. But for a trader like me it is the risk of not taking profit against losing that potential upside vs time spent being invested.

I’m trading this share because of its small size and Ukraine risk profile. I don’t see it as an investment opportunity. If you think it is, then we disagree. That is just a perspective I’m sharing with this board. So there is no need to bring your emotions into the discussion. If you disagree, just layout your reasoning.

No, I’m a profit taker. Very comfortable missing potential next legs up if I have more than doubled my money. I’m trading when I buy shares like this, not investing. I’ve doubled my money on this share before, years back. It has been good to me. The idea of trading here with a startling position in the 40s is ridiculous.

When I invest, I buy shares in much larger companies that are not in lawless states. Companies like this are a bit of fun for maybe 10 grand of my money.

If it goes back to low 20s I will happily jump back in. If it doesn’t, I don’t care - I’ve taken my money.

Rarely do I ever get out at the top of a surge but I did this week giving a 2.2 profit. Was genuinely undervalued at low 20s / sub 20s , but now much closer to fair value. Don’t see the huge upside at this price but a fair chance of drift back down to the 30s.

No, bribes and threats of violence is exactly how business is carried out in Russia - it is normal practice. You do understand that Russian stocks listed in the UK are subject to frauds? EXI, JKX, RPO and UEN. You do understand the origins of UEN, don’t you? You do understand that UK regulators have zero control over the activities of Russian management and accountancy firms find it virtually impossible to authenticate internal documents? You haven’t invested here not knowing this ? You sound like you have no understanding of the history of UK listed companies operating in Russia. Enlighten me, list the three main online sources that post information relating to frauds within Russian UK listed companies (that the Russian government keep trying to shutdown). Please don’t tell me you have invested here without referring to these sites daily.