RE: Tweet14 Jan 2025 09:12
Good am Rider. I am sharing a brief investment case to help you get up to speed
Last night I had a look ionic rare earths while doing background reading. This lead me to summarise why I like recycling. Also it threw out some general insights and competative advantages of mkango and why mka is the buy!
1. Recycling will be Lowest cost producer. Non China primary supply hardly making money at current prices. Both companies make money at current prices ( more later)
2. Circular supply, no resource depletion
3. Strong barrier to entry if you secure supply feedstock. Iconic talk alot about this in crux investor videos
4. Technological barrier to entry. Obvious.
5. Upside if any China retaliation on rare earth restrictions to west
6. Upside if trump tarrif. We can see usa production at higher price because imports are more expensive
7. Potential for free money ( grants) even though you have 20 to 30pct unleveraged IRR at current prices where suppliers are suffering
8. Growing forecast market. They believe robotics in 10yrs will be more important that EV ( see Adams intelligence..expert on RRE)
9. Organic growth baked in. If we make supply contracts we grow when they grow. Datacenters set to grow over 200pct. Our initial agreements path the expansion.
10. Expansion is low risk. This is an industrial process and modular. Just add when you need it, unlike mining that needs exploration and unique flow sheet for every project.
11. Ramp up flexibility. If feedstock supply in one region slows, just move the plant to another country!
12. Fast ramp up. Once operation is established you are just adding equipment. Less than 1.5yrs ( cotec estimate to build plant but that is from scratch. Mine, 10yrs +
10. Potential Tax credits on construction as strategic projects. 30pct of cost
11. I have seen rebates of 5pct of labour cost froma state gov in usa for a critical mineral linked company ( worry forgot name).
13. Strong ESG qualities for OEM
14. Potential carbon credits ( cotec making study on Carbon)
15.Suppliers hate volatile prices. Recyclers have the ability to reset the pricing strategically. If we cap the price we pay for scap and output. We can still make money, this allows our customers who are industrial customers to have price certainty.
I know you might look at iconic as Lower market cap but some specific observations
1. Our AISC in usa estimated a 20usd a kg. The operating cost of ionic is mid 20usd EXCLUDING feedstock. So mkango seems to have some cost advantage
2. They want to build uk plant in future.We have uk and Germany coming online this year
3. They talk about expansion beyond uk, we already have study complete for usa. They fund our 40pct construction costs ( repaid from our profits)
4. Active discussion for Japan. Others in background. Company said maybe 3 more countries by 2028
5. THE big one. They are low on cash. We are trying to sell a permitted mine via SPAC in usa, and anticipate value has to be over 10