2021 Nd $200+ ... The drivers27 Feb 2021 13:03
Four of them. All arising together that in combination can only force a severe squeeze on Neodymium.
First off from the Paris Accord on decarbonising business the profound change in attitude of most world govs and in particular the major players that account for some 2/3rds of the world economy. Not just talk but law bringing in prohibition and/or huge and escalating fines for cos that don't move to the targets with what they produce. The cos that matter to the prospects for Neodymium are now changing fast.
Second despite some 15 years so far science and innovation has not come with substitutes for the NdFeB magnets that get anywhere near the power density of this design. That density allows both wind generator and EV producers to realise large savings elsewhere in their kit. This means it will take alot in cost increases for them to choose to move to alternatives to the Nd magnet.
Third China, new cold war politics. Western govs have finally woken up to the venerability of a policy of indifference to the business community's attitude of going for the cheapest regardless that it has resulted in a near total dependency on a single country as provider. For multiple product containing RE this is China.
China has specifically stated that they want control of world RE through the value chain. In conflict times this weaponizes Nd in particular.
Fourth the commods super cycle. Is there one? if so where is the economy in it? Just coming off the bottom is the answer and in this cycle it is driven by base metals and in particular by energy metals, with Neodymium....... right at the top.
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I'll nail; it to the mast. I predict Western priced NeOx not only going above 200 this year but also staying there until Western production of concentrate plus the establishment of the rest of the full separation and then magnet production chain is in place in the West of enough volume to cover the imminent Nd supply deficit.
Rainbow will be one of the early key players here.
How much will they earn I wonder?
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