Member Info for GaiasKidney

Without revenue at/near the modeled prediction (some $6.25m but more like $7m since prices are above modeled for this first H of the plan) but instead the cash coming in falling short I think the drilling to Jorc would have been delayed since Vast would have had to look to saving cash reserves. But this drilling to Jorc plan has not been delayed and the consultant is appointed.

Aiui getting this Jorc is not about present mining, that can continiue regardless but is instead about improving Vast's future borrowing capacity and if it had have been delayed it would have had no impact on present production be that good or poor. But a delayed Jorc for BP would slow down plans to for instance financing the reopening of Manaila, which needs significant Capex for a local processing plant.

This now and ahead all about a change from a wannabe to being an expanding multi site mining co. Much upside ahead if they get this right enough. This is the year for that.

GLH.

"Vast Resources
@vast_resources
·
1h
#VAST looks forward to working with @WA_LLP
as we unlock the further potential of #BaitaPlai in tandem with the production and sales that we continue to deliver during the ramp up phase."

"this year the ducks are all in a row,"

That's right Hammy, just was not the case before. Too much still to be spent at BP before there could be any real cashflow and the funds could only logicaly come from one place with a minnow like vast - placings.

Now? This mine has cashflow - they could not put out an RNS like today's when it's stated in the 30/3 RNS that:

"No further funding for capex required to implement the new mine plan and future capex will be funded from cashflows. "

part of that plan being:

"Exploration drilling targeting the downdip extension of the Antonio skarn from 19 level to 22 level expected to commence in June 2021." and " Exploration drilling to confirm historic drill hole data on the Antonio North skarn expected to commence in early 2022."

without now having sufficient cashflow to cover that drilling to bring what's there in the next to develop areas to Jorc.

Won't stop the efforts here to sow the seeds of doubt though, despite those more and more falling on stony ground.

This is the year.

GL holders.

and looks again to have been refused. The market refusing to accomodate the sellers in that again, with a block of sustained sells from 12 today and also with the true bid rising into the afternoon, this appears for a third time now to be bouncing off 750-775.

Now I have never seen the logic or rational that surrounds TA but I respect the fact that others do and observe many a time that predictions from it pan out - self fulfiling behavior!

So with this Vast price over the last few months you have a declining channel being superceeded by a rapidly tightening flag. Therefore this looks to be up for breaking out soon - or so TA says.

I've little doubt many are watching. I loaded up more today to add to the speculative position. I anticipate anacdotal detail on volumes will soon seep out. Which - obs - could take it either way.

GL holders. All else best keep an eye.

"A person working in Oil / Gas / Energy / Mining in Romania typically earns around 8,090 RON per month." ~$2000/m

http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=178&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1

Add 40% gives wage bill of ~$9m/y. Plus costs say $11m. Seems realistic. Concentrate sales will go to around $40m/y if they hit the plan. AIUI L19 is now being opened out.

"Mining, concentrate production and sales continue." Not seen: "...sales..." in such statments before.

GLHs.

Ponder that 12m prospect whilst waiting.

How?

First mining plan 9/20 ~1500t/Q of copper concentrate for Q4 '21 "2nd mechanised plan 3/21 2/3rds higher vol and 6m later - ~2500t/Q for Q2 '22 and beyond.

Copper price by then expected $12/t - so much pointing to that ballpark. Copper concentrate basis 30% copper so sell @ $3600/t. But BP concentrate has the Au & Ag credits within. Grades for them in the 2nd plan they look to be able to add ~1/3rd to BP's concentrate value, So it would go at $4800/t. Sales of $12m/q, $48m/y.

Then add the Zn & Pb from this polymetalic mine, I think about another $4m/y. Total $52m/y in sales.

Opex is an est at $12m/y giving earnings around $40m. Expect a PER of 10 to 15 in a boyant commods market and with a co with much upside reserve addition potential from this mine and others to bring on takes this 12m and on fair valuation here to a $400-600m region.

Mcap today ~$27m.

So why just 5% of that 1y out valuation now? The past history, a creditor (gone quiet though, but could re appear), a long succession of begging in the Orphon Period, Loathing and derrision from present/past holders, potential new investors fearful of being a 'first mover' prefering momentum and... err... it's all based on a plan that is not yet a fact, need data but it will come. Etc, etc.

However sucessful investing is about moving well beyond what can easily be labeled as simple fantasy to making reasoned analysed judgements on the future is it not.

Today it's still speculative.

Good luck people.

Significant?

Well on my morning walk I had the good fortune to come across a road kill....... an examination of the entrails was inspiring. Not a Vast road kill, just a small one. ;-)

GL holders.

Thanks for that Fantasy I had not sussed.

So a tonne of copper only concentrate would today sell for around $3k. If BP's grades of Au & Ag went into that concentrate then perhaps that value could well be some 50% more per tonne. Jolly good, just gets better!

Right could be an up-hill but I'm gunna try and get your sympathy for the hard done over bashers. A bit disgusting this mataphor but so my sense of humour. - Imagine them as dogs who cannot resist coming back to their sick (from an earlier ill timed over indulgence), they are circling it, they want to just gobble it up but also can't get over how revolting that would be...... But they are just so hungry for this. What a state to be in.

So horrible to watch.......... but one can't take one's eyes away!!

ATB.

Indeed it is Naise. I'll do a sum. BP Grades:

" Cu 1.27%
Zn 1.10%
Pb 0.61%
Au 0.49g/t
Ag 62.08g/t"
One tonne of ore (approx prices)
1.27% Cu @ $10k/t, val $127
1.1% Zn @ $3k/t, val $33
0.61% Pb @ $2.2k/t, val $13
0.49g/t Au @ $60/g, val $30
62g/t Ag @ $0.85/g, val $53.
Tot val = $256
~1/2 the val is from the copper. They do appear to prioritise the copper. I don't know if they are extracting the gold and silver.

With higher Cu prices there is provision for the cutoff grade in any revised Jorc to be lowered from the present 0.75% (29/10/20 RNS). So at BP not only would exploration drilling of the Antonio Skarn and the North Skarn add to the Jorc at the 0.75% cutoff but with higher prices there would be further ore added as becoming economic with a lower cutoff. The NPV of $104m for BP in the Jorc RNS was then based on a Cu price of $6655/t.

From the new mine plan (30/3/21 RNS):

“Life of mine 15 years modelled on 3.7 million mined tonnes (which
partially includes high confidence exploration target derived from
historic data not in the current JORC). ...

-- Drilling campaign to increase resource (up to 5.8 million exploration
target).”

and

“-- Exploration drilling targeting the downdip extension of the Antonio skarn
from 19 level to 22 level expected to commence in June 2021.
-- Exploration drilling to confirm historic drill hole data on the Antonio
North skarn expected to commence in early 2022.”

This article:

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-05-19/Running-on-MT-peak-copper.html

covers this with the case also for higher pricing looking inevitable from ‘Peak Copper’ and global decarbonisation ahead.

Of course to benefit the co has to produce. The target is:
“-- Net* revenue forecast:
-- $17.2m 1 April 2021 -- 30 April 2022
-- $28.2m 1 May 2022 -- 30 April 2023
-- $33.4m 1 May 2023 -- 30 April 2024
? $34.7m 1 May 2024 -- 30 April 2025 "

However it seems… and despite considerable wailing from some here… they are not going to provide figures often:

“Notes:
..3. Actual sales and production figures will be reported on a bi-annual basis.“

Until then - end Sept - be content as pretty pics of production is all you'll get.

So this as yet is most certainly not investable, but it certainly is speculative.

Hmmm... Copper concentrate $3000 per tonne, zinc concentrate $1000 per tonne....... could be useful.

GL holders.

Hi RF1

I'll keep it to one comment only on Atlas as I don't think it will be an issue here for much longer.

I concluded some time back that Atlas from the last conversion in Jan are not wanting to end up with furter Vast shares from conversions, they would prefer cash or instead just wait. I doubt Vast shares are something a beautique lender like Atlas will want to hold on their books nor do they want the fag of having to employ a broker to dispose of them in a falling market in part created by their own actions.

Far better to wait until Vast is throwing off enough money to be able to settle conversions ahead with cash. I expect quietly that is the conversation and that the build up to cash surplus from product is happening.

Of course if Vast fail to get to a position to do that it won't just be a monster conversion in Jan '22 that will be crushing the sp.

Free cash expectations for '21 & '22 appear in the BP mechanised plan figures.

ATB.

An individual holder, name: N REED.

High net worth!

No. Adding.

It'll only take a sliver of evidense of product delivery to send this.

To chew on:

https://www.orocoresourcecorp.com/_resources/blog/Green-Metals-Copper-is-the-new-oil.pdf

Reasoned.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-05-11/Copper-to-surge-at-least-seven-fold-before-this-bull-market-is-over-Goehring-Rozencwajg.html

But could go this far.

700k and wait.

GL holders.

Pecten

Little doubt one of the reasons why a 40% figure is inappropriate and the market is presently applying 20% (an 80% discount re Mcap/Npv). However the weakness of the resource assessment does not impact their ability to mine ore/sell concentrate, as present finance covers doing this.....I'm assuming it's there and not mythical.

What I am interested in is how that market discounting and hence value uplift may change ahead. Not only should NPV rise as cashflow nears and past costs fall away but also as certainty of that cashflow materialises so the discount should collapse to at/near zero as is normality for a steady state producer.

If their plan includes a successful removal of a finger that is!

EG calculating the NPV based on the 30/3/21 mine plan and the present Cu price reality of $10300.

From the plan the central NPV figure for BP is $107m, this assumes a 10y average price for Cu of $7800/t and a 10% discount rate to get that NPV.

The sensitivity analysis gives NPV of $127m (same discount rate) for a 10% higher Cu price. The present Cu price is 32% higher that the plan's 10y av assumption. That would give the NPV now as $171m.

To follow on from Sandy’s quick sum with this up-to-date NPV figure implies a fair valuation now of £42.1m. 19.8p. So presently this is some 50% undervalued.

Risks remain. It seems more probable to me than not that these are to reduce ahead rather than to rise further. Time will tell. I expect Copper to rise further too.

Hi Contractor

".. block anything PRE tried to do? "

There is no legal or economic recourse available to MP for that.

With the way Western demand for Nd is progressing I also doubt Pensana's future production will harm MP's bottom line ahead. A predatory buyout is an obvious possibility though.

AISI presnt softness with the Pre sp is all about some taking profits after a strong 12m rise and that ahead Pre needs to raise money to build this. However with production I expect 4500t/y will just be the start. European demand ahead supports + 5x that IMO.

ATB.

Hi Funky

"Let’s look at the chart for COPPER "

Indeed, take a proper look. A time horizon that takes in the secular trend plus the cycles. Try this

https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data

After a rough halving from 1990 to the final cyclical low in 2001 copper then went up 7 fold to the 2011 peak you mention.

Who's to say somthing similar is not panning out now for copper and other commods? Check this chart over 50y

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gsci

Next 'super cycle' rise just starting, who's to say? There is a lot of work out there though showing how much supply will have to grow ahead - particularly base metals - if world economies are genuinly on the route to decarbonise. Look at the reflationary money being thown about, look at the bottlenecks already appearing. Many pointers.
========
Vast's new mine plan has NPV based on $7.8k/t ( $3.54/lb) first 10y of 15y LoM av copper pricing. My best guess is the av at double that ........... tripling the NPV.

The gamble? They just have to perform.

We'll see. ATB.

Ah. 6 1/2 percent emotinal spasm, 93 1/2 percent pragmatic rationalism. Jolly good.

Onward.

Hi Mr008

"the company’s total share capital will not be further diluted."

There is no absolute ceretainty there as you so state as the convertibles the co issued to Atlas for some $7m in cash are in the sole control of Atlas and it is at their discretion as and when they choose to convert them, not Vast.

All be it Vast do have the option on Atlas making a conversion election to pay Atlas cash instead. But if Vast choose not to the conversion - and dilution - then happens - creating new dilutive shares.

However unlike many here I have little concern with dilution ahead arising from Atlas conversion providing the co suceeds in progressing to production somewhere in line with the recent new schedule. Outstading convertible debt value is around £4.4m, the conversion share price is VWAP minus 10%. So if all outstanding were to be converted at say 8p (post 100:1 consol) that would add 55m to the new 210m. an ~1/4 dilution.

~At 9p (post C) the Mcap is £19m. On production sucess I see that value going to £150m +, or with 265m shares 57p. With no new issue and instead 210m shares 71p.

The prospects revolve around production sucess not finances. No sucess then this dies regardless of what financing deals there are.

ATB.