Member Info for GaiasKidney

Ha. Wouldn't want to type that out.

A trend reversal?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VAST.L/chart/#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6NSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsInRpbWVVbml0IjoibWludXRlIiwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjEsImZsaXBwZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ2b2x1bWVVbmRlcmxheSI6dHJ1ZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJjcm9zc2hhaXIiOnRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImxpbmUiLCJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJsaW5lYXIiLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSwiZGlzcGxheSI6IlZBU1QuTCIsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiaW5kZXgiOjAsInlBeGlzIjp7Im5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInBvc2l0aW9uIjpudWxsfSwieWF4aXNMSFMiOltdLCJ5YXhpc1JIUyI6WyJjaGFydCIsIuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIl19fSwic2V0U3BhbiI6bnVsbCwibGluZVdpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VuZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VkIjp0cnVlLCJyYW5nZSI6bnVsbCwiZXZlbnRNYXAiOnsiY29ycG9yYXRlIjp7ImRpdnMiOnRydWUsInNwbGl0cyI6dHJ1ZX0sInNpZ0RldiI6e319LCJjdXN0b21SYW5nZSI6bnVsbCwic3ltYm9scyI6W3sic3ltYm9sIjoiVkFTVC5MIiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJvbCI6IlZBU1QuTCIsInF1b3RlVHlwZSI6IkVRVUlUWSIsImV4Y2hhbmdlVGltZVpvbmUiOiJFdXJvcGUvTG9uZG9uIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6NSwidGltZVVuaXQiOiJtaW51dGUiLCJzZXRTcGFuIjpudWxsfV0sInN0dWRpZXMiOnsi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiMDYxIiwiRG93biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjZmYzMzNhIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7IndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhbmVsTmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19fX0-

7 week tick chart

for the re scheduling of the debt should be revieled any time. I'm thinking around $300k. $230k will cover the extra 5m at 10%, $70k fees.

There will also be the rolled up interest from when the CB was drawn down, I think only one payment there was made, also the capital.

Expensive money, but it was that or issuance. Ahead with a prodicing mine rapidly moving to profitability and JORCing this year to extend the life by 10y+, future developments of other assetts should be significantly cheaper to finance with debt.

This should be the goal to take this from just another wanabe (begging bowl) explorer/developer to a genuine small to then mid size mining co.

Can they do this? This year they are making a realistic start. Figures for BP soon. Already some flagged.

DYOR

July concentrate sales value = $750k to $800k for that month.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/957728/vast-resources--looking-forward-to-the-growth-story--as-baita-approaches-operational-profitability-957728.html

Stated as the most productive month so far.

For the first seven months of the mining plan revenue was modeled at $6.25m from concentrate sales

https://www.vastplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/vast-baita-plai-new-mine-plan-final-version-300321.pdf

1/7th of that = $793k. The next six months has modeled revenue of $10.9m

The 10th Aug RNS including an operational update stated :

"...operational update on progress at its Baita Plai Polymetallic Mine ('Baita Plai') in Romania and in particular that it is currently on schedule to meet accumulated net operational cashflow projections to April 2022 in accordance with the revised mechanised mine plan 'mine plan' announced on 30 March 2021." and that " The Company will provide a production report in October 2021"

The difference between now and the past - where the dwellers dwell. This co in the past had no decently funtioning assett to speak of that was usable as collateral, now it has a producing mine that is soon to be JORCed out to 15y LoM+ and will soon have removed the mortgage on it.

Now.

Then.

18.8m new today. Where are the flippers?

That's what AP has said Funky.

Proactive Youtube.

Morning Pecten.

Years ago I used to get involved in some placings on AIM cos but gave up on it a long time back. Prefer to be in control of timing buy/sell myself and you always had to have a lot of cash at hand.

I never had one where the listing date for new issue was split, I can only think it is at the discretion of the co to reduce the risk of disorderly trade in a not presently very liquid share? Soften the 'blow'? Just speculating though.

First tranche here went through without much action. Pull back was on the 10th. See how it goes next Tue.

ATB.

Over 8.5 and it's profit for me........ then each penny £10k added.

Good luck holders.

Good weekend all.

Buys.

Amongst the now so many others. So far today from the Usuals? Zip!! Is that a first on a trading day this year?

Folded have they? would be facinated to know. No being shy now ;-))

Troajan

Check the New Mine Plan pressy from last March

https://www.vastplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/vast-baita-plai-new-mine-plan-final-version-300321.pdf

Page 15 has the projected through puts for concentrate for the years 1 and on.
Year 1: Cu+Au+Ag 4.4kt, Zn 0.9, Pb 0.4. Tot 5.7kt/y or 475t/m av. So I guess it is total delivered concentrate you mean.

In the Proactive chat the other day

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tTftNVSar4

AP referes to sales value from BP for July coming out at $750 - 800k. I would expect they are up to 1/2 to 2/3rds the anual av of 475t/m delivered by now. I think I heard they were concentrating on delivery of the Cu+ primarily.

This test work at TOMRA is mainly to show that Manaila can be made far more profitable with the prospect of a large cut in ore transport costs as there is no flotation concentration plant at Manaila. The ~3 fold increase in output grade from the machine will save the co from having to build a flotation plant at Manaila and so effect a large cut in Capex cost to get that mine back on stream from present C&M.

I expect they will go forward with that as fast as they can. The amount of cash they accumulate and how readily they can access other funds will steer the timeline. Manaila can double Vast's Cu eq plus other concentrate output from what can come from an expanded ~20kt/y BP alone. ~40kt/y of total concentrate production would be feasible and a reasonable prospect later this decade. Ballpark $100-150m/y revenue.

Hi John.

From today there is just one week left for this now anomalous price to hold.

This is when the remainder of the placing comes to market. The market mindset is to wait until the expected wave of selling from that has passed before committing funds to this. But what is not well understood is that flippers did not partake in this to any degree, they are usually ill researched and (as so many here) willl only see past performance. Instead the placees that are now here are buying in to the coming rerate.

With that the reality will be that the wave of selling will not materialise to any real extent. Once that is witnessed by the market there will be a scramble for stock here.

This mine is already generating revenue at ~$9m/y ann, it will get to steady state some 6m quicker than the plan, and that at then revenue some 3 - 4x the presnt. There is 20y+ of LoM in this one mine, that is already known. Running costs at the next mine they have to bring on, one of similar scale, have just been massivly cut.

Sit back and watch the action.

ATB.

Obs some not (yet) able but willing so from them it will be bash, bash, bash until they have their cash ready.

For others they are able but unwilling. Is this because they over obsess on the past I wonder.

Keep an eye on the forcast I say as there is a change in the weather coming - clue about forcasts: forward looking. In this (still specualtive, hence the price) situation I like the words of that good old boy Buffett:

“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/952671-opportunities-come-infrequently-when-it-rains-gold-put-out-the

Quite a few seven figure size bucket position builders I know of here now, they keep quiet in the main. All after a turn on a turnaround sitution. No expectation of or interest in perfection. It's the direction and the change toward the derisk that counts.

This is how AIM works.

See what transpires.

Do your own......GLHs.....

Questions, questions.

Answer:

".. in particular that it [the Company's Baita Plai Polymetallic Mine] is currently on schedule to meet accumulated net operational cashflow projections to April 2022 .."

*in particular*
*currently*,
*on schedule to meet".

Take it or leave it.

Perfection it - nor any share at any time ever - it is not nor can it be, but where is it going?

Objectivity on the present situation welcome.

Off for the weekend. Have a goodun.

Should not a large lump of some 9.2m new issue share have landed today? From the placing RNS:

"It is expected that Admission will become effective and dealing will commence in respect of the issue of 5,611,110 of the Placing and all 3,580,952 of the Subscription Shares on or around 13 August 2021..."

One would expect significant sell volume today to take this to at/below the 6.3p placing price. One would have had expected the sp to have already dipped to that sort of level anyhow.

Volume again is measly so far some 59k (buys 107k). Perhaps they are not admitted yet? Perhaps the holders are prepared to wait the 7 weeks to the mine production/sales figures coming out with a veiw to maybe having a chance of selling into some buying that may occur? Or perhaps - and this of course is the most thoroughly implausable hypothosis of the lot - they actualy want to keep them!!!

Silly. Yes I know.

GLAH.

'Excited'? Haha Sandy. Yes I just remember getting excited about a share ........... about 40 years ago!

It's the day job. This one of ten presently, though this situation decently more interesting than others, so worth the odd post here and there.

From position build start a two year view on this speculative turn around situation. It had been on the list for some ten years. but in my mind only became worth research this year.

Today's advisories mark a significant move toward a more stable and sustainable co and opperation, but stil some way to go - AISI.

There ........excitment............ err, not ;-))

ATB.

Morning.

By last Wed I was thinking it is now getting late to resolve the Atlas CLN, hence the suggested list hopefuly showing there were many routes to make a new finance construct that will reduce the pressure from the shortening time to the deadline.

Of the list these four:

*issue general equity
*negotiate with lender new timescale for debt expiry
*negotiate new debt deal with lender
*issue shares to lender

with the later being warrants at ~2.5x the placing price have secured a five month (not a great deal of time) postponment but also significant: no conversions. This with what looks like some decent progress in turning an abandoned semi ruin(?) into a fully functioning (and so ahead producing) mine should now stabilise the sp.

I expect a proper sp rise will have to await the production and sales figures and that they show tha the new June '22 debt call will be capable of being settled from accumulated cash or that the figures and projections are good enough to secure long term and cheaper debt.

The expansion plans and then Manaila will entail large upfront Capex.

Satisfied with today's 'three buses in a row' .......... despite being some 15% down so far on this position.

The 'can' has been quite well stamped on prior to recycling before being kicked a reasonable distance "down the road".....to quote.

Good luck holders.

Phfft. Just an 'also ran' in the 'sponsership largess olympics'.

If you want to podium you have to go big:

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/annual-report-for-year-ended-31-march-2013/

Then burn through 2bil of shareholder funds!!....... I est.

No prob... I would have been surprised if they had constrained them selves like that.

Looks like some 8w to go for first figs on the mech mining plan. I have a two year view from start of position build from when the plan came out.

Cu demand just gets stronger

https://insideevs.com/news/523953/global-plugin-car-sales-june2021/

GLH.