Member Info for GaiasKidney

Full quote:

"This broad dynamic of increasing copper demand coupled with relatively inflexible supply will likely prevail for several years. Global commitments to green infrastructure, transition to electric vehicles and ESG aware investors seem like long term demand drivers. Meanwhile, suppliers have been cautious on exploration spending.
Higher prices will eventually bring more supply online, but given the long mine development cycle, that will take time and keep prices elevated. Therefore, copper should be well positioned for an extended bull run over the next decade."

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-04-29/Bullish-copper-narrative-continues-to-build.html?sitetype=fullsite

Definite Sea Change here as well, many usual faces seem to have wandered off.....and replacments arrived. A harbinger?

Follow-on with 'of doom' freely gifted to the 'merchants' ;-)

Meanwhile all falling into place here.... That value curve.

GL holders.

Little dip past open. Took advantage to add more to 60m tot. Stop there. Now watch.

When raining gold (native copper) nuggets push a bucket out there not a thimble.

Last few weeks has been the sweet spot time on the value curve.

GLA.

Spot 10k/t today. In a year? 12k I'm assuming.

By mid '22 7 bag with diluting new issue, 10 bag without.

On their model - will they, won't they? More, less? Argue, but pointless.

Data from co plans/market:
~1500t per Q copper concentrate end '21 (RNS 7/9/20 Q4 '21 concentrate of 1463t),
replacement mechanised plan 65% capacity increase on 9/20 plan (RNS 30/3/21 plus assume 6m delay in ramp up),
Copper av at 12k/t, concentrate 4k/t, co PE 10 as a producer, £/$ 1.38.

Calcs:
~1500t/Q copper concentrate production goes to ~2500t/Q for Q2 '22. Sale val $10m = $40m/y.
Add 10% for Zinc/Lead credits - $44m/y sales.
Opex est $15m (can be higher or lower - pointless)
Earnings/y $29m
Valuation £210m.
'New money' share issue 210m with no new issue, or 280m with ~30% dilution from either Atlas conversions to end or placing to buy them off.
SP 70p to £1.

Or the co fails and spontaniously implodes from here - Do your own R.

GL.

Quiet on this board, not elsewhere:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/04/23/bitcoin-crashes-under-50000-as-ethereum-ripples-xrp-and-cardano-plunge-200-billion-amid-major-correction-price-warning/

Pires was at ~4p before they moved into crypto. How much of the value increase since (some £14m of £19m mcap) is attributable to Pires' taking of this crypto position?

"Mr Prelea's total beneficial ownership in the Company is 1,606,514,739 Ordinary Shares,"

£1 1/2m........... Hmmm, i'd be motivated not to p155 that away.

Pensana have just put out their Business Plan. In it is:

"The Company is in active discussions with third parties for the additional supply of sustainably sourced rare earth carbonates .......... Once in production, Pensana will look to expand production capacity when additional feedstock becomes available. "

Plalaborwa - 170kt of carbonate.

for insolvancy either now (interest) or when the principal is due (March/22?) as I now understand it.

Decided to add on this this AM. Took the av from .0894 to .0876 or 8.76 in new money. All at high risk still.

Now see if they can deliver the (it seems ever more increasing in value*) product.

* https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Non-ferrous/Copper#tabIndex=2

Good luck holders.........especially those who one day say they have no shares here and the next saying they are voting against. What makes this BB great! Surely there are none?

https://newplanningaccess.eastriding.gov.uk/newplanningaccess/applicationDetails.do?activeTab=documents&keyVal=QMXKUXBJICX00

Top two Word docs are the Planning officer's report with recommendation and the decision notice from the Planning Committee.

Conditions are the usual stuff, no fuss there.

Only one letter of support from the public. I expect most conclude PP was a given, they were right.

BP next - an far better steer on the future earnings ....and the bills to get there.

Progress.

"Increased demand and likely low supply are set to drive up the price from the current levels of around $9,000 per ton to $15,000 per ton by 2025, the bank said. "

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/copper-price-outlook-demand-rise-goldman-sachs-sustainability-commodities-2021-4-1030304102

Gakara concentrate presently going to China. Talk from Rainbow of full output going to the US instead. Nose out of joint so decide to Sab that with a 'who's looking after you?' reminder to the licence provider?

I wonder!

https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-palace-diplomacy-in-africa/

Nice palace that.

Overhang from 7p IPO working its way though. Appears over.

I'm hoping they can find the rest of:

"Hole ID........From.(m)..........To.(m)............Length.(m).........Copper.(% Cu)....Tin.(% Sn)
.
.
GWDD-002...90.60..............105.29.................14.69....................8.45....................1.19*"

8%+Cu!

https://www.cornishmetals.com/projects/uk/united-downs/

These two are useful:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/romania/

Vast only default on the Atlas bond if they don't pay any remaining outstanding non converted or cash settled debt by the bond expiry - 31/1/22. Interest is accruable.

So much lying goes on here.

Build or buy: are the copper Majors rising to the growth challenge?

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/build-or-buy-are-the-copper-majors-rising-to-the-growth-challenge/

Morning Tony

Both are excellent plays on the Neodymium future. But aisi PRE will have an easyer (and cheaper for holders) journey to production revenue. This comes from Pensana's dcision to move much further into the mine to magnet value chain with the prposed UK separation plant. This and their relatively high Mcap (any dilution is less impactful) will I expect attract debt financing for a large part if not a majority of the build out capex.

Rainbow will have in majority to go to shareholders with new equity issue, I don't think they will able to secure any sinnificant debt to finance Philly. They will suceed in this but it's still suprising to me how many underestimate the impact of the 'Orphan Period' on miners.

Today's price action suggests the market is taking this on board.

I hold both.

Down by only 1/5 of that Mr F.

Treo 0.4957 from initial assay. 12/2 rns.

From new mine plan RNS:

"The study showed a clear amenability for the
ore to be separated using TOMRA's advanced XRT (X-Ray Transmission)
technology to identify both massive mineralisations as well as fine
mineral inclusions using its proprietary combination detection algorithms
to produce a high-grade pre-concentrate and eliminate non-grade
containing waste material. "

Found this on this tech:

"This technology makes it possible to obtain a high purity level in sorting materials irrespective of size, moisture or surface pollution level.
The COM Tertiary XRT uses an electric X-ray tube and a highly sensitive cutting-edge X-ray camera with DUOLINE® sensor technology - using two independent sensor lines with different spectral sensitivities. Data supplied by this camera is processed using TOMRA Sorting’s proprietary high speed X-ray processing unit. The system is able to identify the atomic density of the material – regardless of its thickness.

SIMPLIFIED SORTING PRINCIPLE

Input material is evenly fed via a screen feeder or vibration feeder over a transition chute (both not shown) onto a conveyor belt. An electric X-ray tube creates a broad-band radiation. This radiation penetrates the material and provides spectral absorption information that is measured with an X-ray camera using DUOLINE® sensor technology. The resulting sensor information is then processed to provide a detailed “density image” of the material allowing it to be separated into high and low density fractions. If the sensor detects material to be sorted out, it commands the control unit to open the appropriate valves of the ejection module at the end of the conveyor belt. The detected materials are separated from the material flow by jets of compressed air. The sorted material is divided into two fractions in the separation chamber."

https://www.tomra.com/en-gb/sorting/mining/sorting-equipment/com-series/com-xrt/how-it-works-xrt

Becoming universaly adopted.

Can they be daddies?

The comparison with the story of Sirius Minerals is informative in that it is so erronious.

Some numbers, bar a brief spike Sxx Mcap never got above £1.5bn and was mostly around £1bn, the Capex for the complex project of the Woodsmith mine, 21m tunnel, processing facility and port went to approx £4-5bn. Due to that they ran in to great difficulty in raising the finance which was well above by factors that of the co valuation.

Sirius was eventually taken out by AA in a fire sale for around £350m. The mine is being built.

For Pensana a reasoned judgemwent can be made now for the range for Capex for both Angola mining and REE seperating at Hull. Pre produced a PFS on 15/11/19 showing Capex of $131m for mine plus processing to produce concentrate for export.

https://pensana.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/PFS-15.11.2019-1.pdf

The Hull separation facility is so far estimated at $125m Capex. Total $256m ~£186m. I would expect slippage to around 50% more so say ~£280m total.

The prersent Pre Mcap is around £320m, some 70% more than that estimated costs. They appear to be in a better position to finance their scheme by around a factor of some seven times compared to the position Sirius was in at similar early stages of their build. This will make raising the finanance cheap and easy for Pre AISI.

There is no denying that mine developers moving into the 'orthan period' stuggle with their share price, but some will fair very differently than others. The many factors surrounding Neodymium are well understood globaly, politicaly, finacialy and with regard to the future of the planet.

I see the valuation here today as more than justified.