Member Info for GaiasKidney

Hi Takeshi

"..on track, within 10%, with copper concentrate production otherwise they would need to RNS. "
Where does this come from? I have not seen the co saying this. If indeed this is an 'edict' when would this RNS be due if they are not within this '10%'?

If this requirment is in place then the silence would suggest the figures on concentrate delivery - when they evebtually appear - will be quite a surprise for many here and very satisfying for some.

We will see.

ATB.

when it becomes required is not difficult for a co with a producing mine and established custom.

The options are a long list. A few I can think of instantly:

*Borrow from finance houses
*Borrow from customers
*Borrow from directors
*Forward sell offtake product to present/new customers
*Royalty with customer or third party
*Mezzanine finance
*JV mine with customer/third party miner
*JV using another asset
*dispose of asset/s
* part sell mine
*issue general equity

Or a cash need may not materialise

*negotiate with lender new timescale for debt expiry
*negotiate new debt deal with lender
*bring lender into tripartite deal re one of above
*issue shares to lender.

Or the co may have reserved enough cash by the debt due date. There is nothing to say they cannot get to that position...bar rhetoric here.

At some point I expect two coincident RNSs re production figures and resolving the Atlas debt. MMs will set the price accordingly before anyone can trade. If it's good the price will be set high....and stay high. Not so and it will not be a buy.

It's an op for risk takers.

Meanwhile it's a nice relaxing summer.

GL.

Price is up.
Volume is up.

Perhaps the're mining..... It's a thought!

60k today @ 655.

Methane rises ... as will this sp from now on ........as I expect.

GLHs. GWA.

Charles

There are many many cos. Lists:

https://www.europages.co.uk/companies/Manufacturer%20producer/magnets%20and%20permanent%20magnets.html

https://www.iqsdirectory.com/neodymium-magnets/

Most in this listing that make Ne magnets are Chinese but there are also many EU/UK/USA cos around.

$22-28/kg Opex mine to seperated oxides.

Spot prices for these products:

China

https://www.metal.com/Rare-Earth-Oxides

Europe approx some $20-40/kg more

https://www.kitco.com/strategic-metals/

Paying well above $100/kg.

Presently pre seperation REE carbonate gets a far far lower price with China being the only significant buyer

https://www.metal.com/Concentrate/201102250378

Some $4.5/kg.

It is very obvious where the greatest value added will be in this 'mine to magnet' processing chain. Saltend has it.

Morning.

I wonder does the presence or absense of this particular Aramine drill rig impact the mechanised production volimes compared to the plan? This from the RNS:

"The new mine
plan includes the acquisition of three Load Haul Dump Loaders (LHDs), an
Aramine Face Jumbo Drill Rig, two Resemin Muki 22 Long Hole Drilling Rigs
and a Tomra XRT Ore processing & sorting machine."

says there will also be two Rosemins.

Also previous tweets have said they are down to level 19, so one presumes mining is proceeding there as also at old 17/18.

If the Aramine is assigned for exploration only perhaps they have decided to delay the purchase for a while as cash reserve accumulation at present could be a priority?

Anyway AFAWK mining continiues.

Morning Sandy

Tnx for having a go at a valuation.

Now if I felt mischevious I would be tempted to say less a a factual ramp and more plucking some numbers so as to arrive at a desired - and obviously low - conclusion. but that would be unfair. ;-)

FMU the NPV basis is useful as a metric for mines moving through the development stage to give potential financiers a steer on the potential future returns if they buy in. Also for arriving at a fair market valuation ratio to a project NPV for the owning co the "rule of thumb" you state is not something I know of, particularly it being set at 40%. Again FMU as a project moves through development - the risks then reduce and cashflow also nears - that ratio instead will move from a very low figure of say 20% at the start of the development journey to on production a then near 100%.

But does this matter as BP I think we will agree is producing (but with absense of production figures at present). With that and again FMU the most useful and most commonly applied metric is discounted cashflow to arrive at a fair valuation. I revisited this article from 11y back that I found useful, table 1 and sec 5 etc:

https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf

From the much refered to BP 'plan' surplus cash tops from H1 '23 on at around $20m/y. Even though the present stated LoM is short I would use that as a basis for valuation ahead as it is pretty well understood there are further resources (but as yet un-JORCed) in the mine and that much of them should be capable of being brought to reserve status so as to extend the LoM by some 3 fold I reckon. Hence then securing the $20m/y figure as a sound valuation basis number.

So today what is a fair discounted value for $20m/y from 2 years out exteding many years?

AISI the market is giving a very high 90 to 95% discount at present as there is no visibility and also an impending secured (expiring in 6m and mortgaged at $25m btw) loan. But if* and/or when those two issues become resolved I think that discount on future cash delivered will fall to a more realistic and market comparable around 30%. A move up in fair value from say 1/20th to 2/3rds of what a steady state $20m/y mine would get valued at. 13x? Or say 1/10th to 2/3rds - 6.5x?

Now THIS would be a ramp IF that earlier starred 'if ' and those '?'s were absent, but they are there because there are still many ways they can mess up. However the CEO does have a seven figure (future eight figure?) sum to lose if he does.

It's speculative........ with a large upside and also a downside to zero, that I give around a 10 to 20% chance of occuring. IMO.

We'll see!

ATB.

In Bur and now also SA.

Sadly sold the remainder today. Phalaborwa and the REE story took RBW from 4 to 20p - the reducing point - now it's a grind and placing(s) to production in a now difficult situation.

Sorry to be out but still conclude those that will produce Western REE/Neo are strong investables.

GLA.

Morning Sandy

"The tone of your remark suggests some kind of dazzling superiority and insight. .."

Just experience Sandy...and from that learning where the point in a co's journey may give one the best chance of a high level of risk to reward ratio and so the best prospects of a large gain.

"....with no figures and just taking a punt?"

Of course it's a punt. This is the point. Someone a few days back provided a list of removing all the uncertainties eg production figure, sales, adherence to the plan, debt seen off/restructured etc before they would consider this. All very well but from my criteria and experience with that all the speculative value (yes punting value) would have then vanished with a much higher price and your just buying into a possible future divi stream.

Now this being a punt I'm fully aware there is risk, as I'm sure you were when you 'punted' (i'm guessing at a similar time as to when I looked at this previously a few years back and then it quickly went into 'pending' as still Orphan and as commods were still in down track on the cycle), so I have to ask why is it you now join in with those here daily demanding certainty when you were content to buy in with so little of that previously?

BTW I do so agree with your upholding of the right to free speech so when I see bashing.......

You have a great day, the sun is out here, time to relax in it.

GL holders.

"-- Net* revenue forecast:
-- $17.2m 1 April 2021 -- 30 April 2022
-- Net operating cashflow forecast before debt, tax and new capex: .......
-- $4.9m 1 April 2021 -- 30 April 2022
Notes:
3. Actual sales and production figures will be reported on a bi-annual
basis. "
--------------
Ie for the First Half, that ending 30/9/21.

I find it facinating how it is only the non holding bashers here who crave on a daily basis for figures whereas those who hold are compleatly content to wait. Now why is this? ;-)))

GL holders

PS: does not include the resident of planet 008

Hmmm... Chair now on half my holding, can't be avin that, will have to add a few.

And this is the time: news vac - punters just hate that, co incessantly talked down by the bashers, hated BoD. Now making this so cheap. Cheap because copper is riding high now and can only sustain or rise further in a decarbonising world and this BoD now have to deliver, there are no other avenues left that offer survival.

Speculative ... very (the only proper way to make solid gains aisi). Chasing momentum and getting spiked before doing due dilly? Fools errand.

aimo.

GL holders.

.

Are pre working with them? They got a mention in the 7/12/20 Saltend RNS re them being funded by the Automotive Transformation Fund. They are getting further funds, 30/6:

https://www.lesscommonmetals.com/node/306

"Ian Higgins, Managing Director of Less Common Metals said: “The study initiated in November 2020 has focused on the creation of a viable supply chain for the critical raw materials needed for rare earth permanent magnet manufacture.

“This new study aims to complete the process by defining requirements for a new UK magnet plant based on this supply chain. By using innovative processes for magnet production, in conjunction with the competitive supply of raw materials established by the earlier study, it is intended those resulting magnets will be economically viable in the global market.

“The availability of stable and economically viable magnets based on transparent and responsible supply chains is essential to enable key industries to grow their UK manufacturing base.”
---------
".... in conjunction with the competitive supply of raw materials established by the earlier study..."

Who can they mean?

No customers? Well silly old Pensana building (yes now building) a whole new industry in the West but without any clue as to whether there are any customers!!

Noted that the 'C' word got five mentions in that update. Pre are now acting as if they are in a very sure position regarding being now secure against any interfearence in their (mine to magnet ...to massive money coming in) future operations.

And it's looks as though the CCP are just not getting the quality of recrutes on the forums if that's all that can be come up with. Bring back HE at least one had to think for a minute before one knew it was just more tosh ......... Ah I see he's back. Very much looks like Pensana are totaly on the right track...... and 'Someone' don't like it.

Do carry on.

With future copper supply to run very short and prices to push far higher It'll bring on a bid for Vast at a price reflecting known but not proven asset values of the two significant mines.

But not for a while.

Buying came in at sub 8 today. Rapidly took it to near 3x today's sells, inc an add from me.

Nothing shocks, In hindsight it looks more and more with today's news that the sudden buying from 1pm on the 23rd was maybe inspired by new info falling into the hands of those this header tags ... and they bought. But only the first 4 got in sub 8. Far more was taken above.

If Vast want to go on to develop mines beyond BP eg Manaila - which to me makes obvious sense - they will need to raise. Usual means will be placing plus (if they can) debt. Regardless of what gets said before hand, that would be no suprise.

There is much copper in Manaila.

This all in my opinion.

GL holders.

In the last set of six month figures the Chair states in his report: "we were disappointed that we were unable to conclude a new financing facility with an international banking institution that had beenwell advanced." There has been nothing said since suggesting there is now and has not been since any wish by the BoD to source new financing to repay the Atlas debt with an alternative loan.

There are only seven months now left for the Altlas bond to run. IMO far too short a time for a refinancing to be worth while. So one can conclude two BoD plans/expectations instead:

1) the co anticipate revenue will come in from BP to cover the ~$6.1m Q1 '22 bill and they progress as a debt free co from there;

2) the co do not expect to have the cash and are content to let the assets fall to Atlas on bond redemption so wiping out all shareholders.

What will they do?

Hi Naise.

Yes taken a significant speculative position. Speculative because one cannot yet be certain that Vast will have enough production sucess (and so revenue - costs to be high enough) to be able to satisfy Atlas by the bond expiry in Q1 '22. As (which some are now finaly grasping) Atlas today have no incentive to elect to convert whilst there remains no visibility on the revenue from BP.

Presently I have no expectation of a near term bank loan nor do I think Vast are seeking one for BP or to pay off Atlas, but I think they are likly to do so ahead for the finance Capex to reopen other sites. Hence moving to more Jorc-ed ore.

However back to the present, if Vast have failed to accumulate enough in the account balance by the bond expiry (value ~$6.1m plus interest IB) and so consequently also the co value is likly by then to be very low Atlas can petition for the assets - a wipe out scenario for all. Some 7-8 months to work with. This creating a highly geared prospect.

Proper incentive for the BoD. Production and cash figures by Oct they say.

ATB.

Just added. Just a little shy of 7 figs now. Targeting six fig £ gain

Earnings here will soon enough be above present Mcap if they move to at/near plan production.

See 'ow it goes.

GLH.