Member Info for GaiasKidney

140. a curious and unreferenced number. Plucked from the majic fantasy tree was it?

In vast majority sulphuric acid (if that is what they plan to use, that remains to be confirmed IB) would be used at an early processing stage at Longonjo. At present Pre have not offered such detail on reagent consumption ratios AFAICT.

However a quick trawl through the scientific, technical and RE production litrature with search: 'bastnasite treatment how much sulphuric acid' brings up a decent and varied set of results.

Most common and with little variation is using 3 mol per litre acid strength for the leagh process. Commercial sulphuric acid is conc at standard 18.4m/l and sells today at ~$200/t. Typical ranges of diluted acid solution ratio to mass of calcined bastnasite (that being approx 50% REO) are from 5 ; 1 to 20 : 1 in the processes looked at. Finally Longonjo's NeOx And PrOx in their REO adds up to 17.18 + 4.95 = 22.13%.

So with a 10 : 1 diluted acid to calcined bastnasite process stage and then that process going to final product, the calculation comes out at 15 tonnes of conc sulphuric acid used to produce concentrate that will then go on to produce one tonne of final NdPrOx.

4.5ky/y NdPrOx = 67.5kt H2SO4. That input cost = $13.5m/y

With latest mid spot European price for product, revenue = $800m/y for 4.5kt/y of NdPrOx.

Edit:

Sulphuric acid for SE and Angola. Ne? Neon! No, Nd Neodymium up 200%.

Ha, yes maybe a short comment Tony but neither concise or precise and unfortunatly (like so many) not grasping the implications that arise from doing the maths accompanying this unfolding situation.

H2SO4 - sulphuric acid (a required Saltend imput) is readily globaly available and is in no way going short. However as with so many commods of late the price has gone up - by some 50-60%. 5y chart:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/producer-price-index-by-commodity-for-chemicals-and-allied-products-sulfuric-acid-fed-data.html

Over the same period Ne is up ~200%.

The fears expressed by some in policy circles that the market will resist financing development of supply to solve the critical metals future supply/demand deficit without further large scale states interventions is IMV mostly misplaced. I think it mostly comes from the events around 2010/11 regarding China/Japan actions and impact on RE pricing around then. We all know the history. Today is radically different because then the decarbonisation move was no more than necent. Today it is happening (as already enacted policy changes are working with ESG practice and carbon limits for OEMs, particularly covering EV/wind/solar) and consequent market adoption is running faster than any new wanabe policy makers can now keep up.

EVs sell - market must respond.

Pensana need to raise some $400m. they have a present Mcap of ~$300m. that is very doable to build a chain from ore to a refined NdPrOx product. Western availability of that commod will bring on myriad (start up or expand existing) metal refiners and magnet makers.

Might even make LCM stand alone commercially viable.

ATB.

Morning

Quote:

"A lack of strategy

Three broad sets of concerns were raised in interviews. The first was scepticism around the commercial viability of rare earth facilities in the UK: high upfront costs, technical challenges and competition with subsidised Chinese suppliers means that such facilities will only be viable if prices remain at record 2021 highs for the mine lifecycle."

This (cribbed from the LCM report) encapsulates the lack of understanding in politics of what is the inevitable situation if society keeps on with the global decarbonisation process, or the technology does not radically change to be able to sustitute against the critical need for all three of Nd, Li and Cu or supply does not get built out to cover this explosive demand shock for these metals.

Price will rise (is rising, will sustain) until the market disregards the risks and builds regardless. This is what is now starting to happen, this is why the market (not hand wringing cowardice green wash reports from Guvs or papers from 'handout' organisations acting as 'yes men' to get their crust) is sending cos like Pensana etc up from an A$7 cent micro to a now £200m+ growth businesses in sub 3 years. From that they then gain the ability to further go to the market (not Guvs) to then build this supply. That's how it works ...and always has.

Pensana does not need nor should in any way let them selves be tied to the venal cowardly actions of Guvs (who cannot even do the maths) to get this new supply done.

Refs:

Seen before, Horizon (EU report), 2020, Argus:

https://view.argusmedia.com/rs/584-BUW-606/images/MET-White_paper-How_to_build_a_rare_earth_supply_chain.pdf

Re p5 REEtec. Who now not Yare but instead want actual reliable supply so go to ....miners:

https://www.metaltechnews.com/story/2021/10/20/tech-metals/reetec-to-purchase-more-vital-rare-earths/739.html

Whereas Guvs panic over the likes of:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2020/08/02/the-dirty-secrets-of-clean-electric-vehicles/

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/dec/08/the-curse-of-white-oil-electric-vehicles-dirty-secret-lithium

Recycling is laudable and should also be rapidly built out as far as practicle, but there is no way that can provide more than a small proportion of the critical metals a sucessful decarbonisation of the world economy that is ahead will require.

New mining has to happen.

A chart to end with:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/neodymium

GLHs

Those who have ownership of the primary sources of the enrgy metals that are and will be subject to a long period of secular inflation are in control of their destiny. Those who do not - Johnson Matthey included - have no control. They are price takers.

Pensana are price makers.

With next door to Wikieup having 1850ppm Li and there being a 90m deep Li containing continiuing clay layer over what must be a large part of Bradda's 47sqkm licence, the first target for Bradda to define a 1mt LiEq resource is a low ball ask with this deal.

47sqkm x 90m ~ 4.5bn cum or ~10bnt. For 1000ppm that would be 10mt of contained LiEq.

Just 1mt contained Li to Jorc would today have a sale value of $30bn. 2% of that would give a very nice return for LRC (>100x their investment) but for Bradda that outcome would be an astonishing upside.

Li battery demand is insatiable presently and with decarbonisation and explosive EV sales can only grow further.

Early days yet but Bradda are moving fast.

PDYOR.

FEED completion first Tony. Tabled for this month.

I would hazard far more significant to lenders (really Charles?) than whether or not a Guv has eventually got around to sending out a memo having finaly noticed that their whole long list of decarbonisation promises will be worth absolutly zip without neodymium.

Wonder where EVs would be now if industry was still waiting for the 'memo' re lithium and the batteries before commiting to giga factories?

As it is looks like 7m EVs globaly is nailed on for '21 .......... exponential doubling per year!!

Pre will do very well, handouts or no handouts.

https://www.kitco.com/strategic-metals/

Nd knocking on 200.

ATB holders.

The text in this FY reads far more like a Prospectus rather than what you would normaly see in FYR statments. No surprise I guess as I expect exactly that to be coming out now very soon - as soon as FEED is complete.

Of which a quick ctrlF on 'FEED' gives 20+ hits, pretty much all followed with 'to be released shortly' or something the like. Apart from one, a slip up? P38 they say it's out this month - November. About time too!

Roll on that following Prospectus for the fixed interest and offer/placing full raise to cover both sites construction. Much required Mine to Magnet chain to be built.

Should be a bit of profit in it I reckon:

https://www.kitco.com/strategic-metals/

GLA.

Yes the drivers pushing prices even higher are growing ever stronger. This some four days back on China pushing for faster adoption, EV, wind:

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2267640-china-eyes-higher-ev-renewable-energy-use-by-2030

This on est 11x expansion of global Nd demand to 2032 despite efforts to find and adopt non NdFeB magnet substitute motor designs:

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/rare-earths-in-evs-idtechex-talks-problems-solutions-and-what-is-actually-happening-862266196.html

Been upping the PRE position of late.

ATB, GLHs.

Ha, never gone away Joe!

Posting today as I think things are about to get very active here soon. There is money to raise - and spend - but the goal is a co that at its first level should have value ten times where this is now. An at least one million tonne NdPr deposit where even if only one third is extractable could ahead give a revenue stream for Pensana of many multiples of their first target metal oxide production sales value.

AISI an eyewatering upside potential for this co.

Just starting.

ATB.

From the end Aug RNS both FEED at Saltend and Longonjo are to complete this month. Two things then happen: EPCM contracts will be awarded for formalising/comencing the construction at both sites and the financing for Saltend, which is to include an upto $250m bond issue, is scheduled to be delivered by end Q4.

RNS 31/8/21.

This is the transition point from an aspirational concept to an essential assett being built to then produce a vital link magnet metal to enable future decarbonization.

The Angola deposit:

"Thick surface blanket of high-grade NdPr mineralization over 1.5 kilometres wide
JORC Mineral Resource estimate 313 million tonnes
1.43% REO incl. 0.32% NdPr containing 4,470,000 tonnes
REO incl. 990,000 tonnes NdPr"

First target production in UK:

"Nameplate Capacity:
4,500 tonnes per annum
of high-grade NdPr oxides
for the magnet metal industries. "

https://pensana.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Pensana-Investor-Presentation-December-2020.pdf

Market pricing per Kg of these:

https://www.kitco.com/strategic-metals/
https://www.metal.com/Rare-Earth-Oxides

PDYOR.

Morning John

Of interest is that BP is also mortgaged. To the tune of $22.5m to Atlas, though presently less than 30% of that is drawn down as exposure for Vast.

IMO back then (March '15, diferent mine, owner, creditor) the actions of the ceditor to the detriment of the workers was beyond stupid. Presently Vast look to have a better relationship with their creditors but it has to be a concern for not only shareholders (that is reflected in the price aisi) but also for the staff. From that hopefuly they will want to make this work as much as any holder does.

The first six months figures I can only see as being transformational as regards removing a very large part of the uncertainty for Vast - BoD ,BP staff and SHs. Hard figures, even if not that brilliant, will quash the endless speculations that is inevitably filling the present void.
----------
I note copper just punched above 10k again, zinc rocking. FMU Vast get paid for these based on the pertaining spot each month.

I quite like these snippets of Vast history that QED comes up with now and then. Though not many in number it goes to show that Vast was not running it ops as safely as they could have done back in the days of 'I remember when'.

Great stuff for the nostalga crowd to chew over of course but for me when one compares then to now there is a marked contrast. What have we had recently in terms of incidents re Health and Safety or Environmental? I've only noted one BP incident since the instigation of the Mechanised Plan, A red water leak of a few litres and that was in the local press within minutes it looked like. So they are obviouly keeping a very close watch on BP Vast.

So what else? Our dedicated slueth QED looks to be digging (pun intended) away day-in-day-out for anything and everything Vast and yet so far from these last six months beyond that one incident?........Zip.

Looking to now be a pretty well run co worth a speculative investment to me. Back then? Well, best to DYOR. Both now..... and then.

GLA.

Turn key......Watch 'em go! ;-)

30/3 RNS: "Actual sales and production figures will be reported on a bi-annual basis."

10/8 RNS: "The Company will provide a production report in October 2021 as previously announced."

Friday printed the floor aisi.

There is a smell of a fine feast being prepared coming from the kitchens. Looks like the dogs - and also a few jackals beyond the walls hoping to grab a bit of pie - already have a sniff of this. ....And so do the few epicureans here. Those who don't fear being contrarian.

An historic customer would not go to the bother of petitioning for a bankruptsy of a subsidiary, at their own cost, if they were not thinking there was a very high prospect of a settlement from the debtor in favour of their creditor claim. They think (as the share holders/buyers of Vast do) that Vast has money, are making money and so will paying the claiment out.

It's this month, so a week or so and all will know. Meanwhile the sp is off the floor and that fine feast is starting to smell very good.

GLHs.

Lovinit.

Added.

GL holders

"..look forward to getting thoughts of fellow investors! "

One so far then.

on the revenue figure for BP concentrate sales for this first six months under the Mechanised Plan. The plan has a revenue estimate of some $6.2m for the first seven months - April to October (October will not be included in the figures).

It has also been stated that the July one month revenue was coming in at around $750k. A rapid build up from zere last March. From that the October figure to come out hitting ~$900k looks reasonable. But as said this won't appear in this first diclosure. From that the model would have around $5.2m for April to September. I will be disappointed if it in fact comes out below $4.2m.

Anything above that will say to me they are close enough on track and are also moving to stable and still increasing production. I also hope for a decent steer on total costs over this first half. It was stated the mine would be casfflow positive during August. Yet to have confirmation.

Numbers will push aside a void filled with speculation and reduce the (now priced not far off default) uncertainty that has overcome Vast.

Couple of weeks?

GLHs

With a Jorc for Manaila of 3.6mt grading at ).93% copper (~1.5%eq with the present gold and silver credits) and a further 1mt inferred this mine will be caplable of concentrate production similar to that of BP and have a 15y+ LoM.

On the model BP has revenue in year two of some $33m and a surplus of some $20m per year. Manaila is open cast so can be quite rapidly brought back on. An installed TOMRA is ~$900k. I would not expect the total to reopen to production to exceed $1.5m. With an iminent producing and profitable BP this will be an easy sum to borrow. I expect they will wait until the coming cold weather abates and they will start the recommisioning in the spring of '22.

With copper sustaining ~$9k/t and the significant ruduction in transit costs to the processing plant Manaila now has a far higher profit potential.

A two year view of some $40m/y of earnings for Vast from these two mines very easily supports my price target of 30p (Mcap ~$75m). Perhaps a fair bit higher.

Please DYOR.

GL holders.

Level of confidence will be at the discretion of the professionals I imgine - Wardell Armstrong.

Mining/concentrating/selling/revenue flowing in continiues regardless.