RE: Price1 Sep 2025 12:38
Agree that we haven't been given enough to go on, again. Instead, we need to trust this mgt team (quite the stretch), to deliver a minimum 40% increase to Adjusted EBITDA to get us to lower end guidance.
From what I can tell, they are saying Revenue and Net Revenue will increase in H2, but looking at H1 the glaring issues I see are as follows:
- Net Revenue conversion to Adj Ebita is what has killed us. It has dropped to 33% from 46.6%. To put this into perspective, if they converted at the same rate as H1 last year we would have Adj Ebitda @ $34m. That's half the upper guidance. What's the cause of this - see below.
- Comparison Revenue backslide - why? I thought this was in the bag for double-digit increase with the expansion to new markets? Also, Net Revenue conversion to Adj Ebitda has slid, making it a double whammy. Thoughts anyone?
- Search. The overall Net Revenue to EBITDA conversion is mostly down to Search. It has slide from 62.8% to 32.8% - Why is this? Is it a one-off? If not I don't see us hitting lower guidance unless Net Revenue increases by a significant margin across the board. Search is the culprit - what is the issue dragging down Net Revenue to Adj EBITDA conversion? If this is fixed in H2 then we should be fine for guidance, and reach upper end providing they grow topline Net Revenue as well.
Debt way too high. I'm disappointed by the level iut has been reduced, but this is largely due to the above problems. They most certainly need to focus on it moving forward. Another $10m in shareholder returns in H2 just won;t cut it. They need to grow Net Revenue, improve conversion (significantly), and use it to pay down at least $20m in debt. By year end we should have a Adj Ebitda to Net Debt ratio of about 1.2. Not great, but not a mess like it currently looks.
If there's a good reason for the Net Revenue to Adj EBITDA conversion being so low, and a one-off, then I can see us easily meeting full-year guidance, and being a healthy t/o target. If not, then I struggle to see how they will hit guidance, and it will be a much longer recovery. Acquisition in part, or whole (preferred) is the best option for all parties.
Thoughts welcome. AIMHO GLA
Thoughts welcome.