RE: Reality29 Sep 2025 10:56
Stas, my last post outlines the only way I think that money can be made here in the next 2 years, and it still requires them to execute wells on time, budget and forecast, which they seem wholly incapable of doing. Get your average down to near the bod's mates at 16p and you'll get your money back if they can execute. If it goes below this level, even they will vote out Calamity Baay. I'd need another 650k at 13p to get to 17.5p average for 2m shares. That's a huge chunk of my pf resting on the words of a free-loading conman.
I was saying over the weekend that I thought something had gone wrong when Lyin Paul was ghosting John. The rose-tinted glasses of posters here were obviously saying things like 'he's getting everything ready to give us one big, beautiful update'. Instead, we get a broken drill string as his latest excuse, alongside some sleight of hand conning with the failed drill encountering the payzone so it can still produce. Cue rose-tinted glasses saying 'all is not lost'. SS was saying 'Casc 4 is saved'. Well no, you were saying that Casc 4 would be executed just like Casc 5, and not to worry because Calamity Baay has learned from past mistakes.
I think there is a pretty big chance that Casc 4 is a write-off, or near write-off and producing 10-20% of what it should. Lyin Paul has already given his excuse and dressed it up as not being a full failure. In a month, he will come back and say it was the drill string that created XXX issues, not my fault etc., but guess what, we're now ready to drill Central. Cue lemmings shifting to Central and the gas compressor unit, but the reality is these won't provide any positive impact until H2 2026, and that's if they can execute both of them. The other thing with the gas compressor unit is that it takes a good chunk of the recent raise money, which means fewer wells in the next 6 months, unless (wait for it)... he is already counting on the additional funding in the loan covenant.
As for me averaging down further, that will only happen when I understand what is going on with Casc 4 & 5, and the additional raise-money. At the moment, I believe that Casc 4 will deliver f@ck all, and he has prepped us for this with his drill string excuse. And when this happens, the additional raise will be asked for by our 'trusted banking partners', and the useless f@ck-up will have us looking at 12-14p for another £6m. And if all is not lost, and Casc 4 + 5 deliver reasonable flow rates, and the loan gets waived, well then we should get up to 18-20p and I can start trimming my holdings for a small loss.
Imo this is likely another disaster that he is delaying, so he can dress it up with some other things to look out for next year.