RE: Resurfacing - NOMAD email (2 parts)11 Nov 2025 09:27
What a bunch of c@nts. These clowns could have mentioned this weeks ago, given it's a massive downgrade to Adj EBITDA. They also could have announced the 'strategic review' over 6 months ago. I have included a breakdown of the segments and my workings. The thing that stands out the most is obviously the Search division. From what I can tell, they are currently adding nothing to annual Adj EBITDA in H2. This makes the business worth next to nothing unless they can demonstrate in the coming months that a scale-up is possible. And even then, what would they get as a multiple...? If possible, my preference would be to take this segment and dump it for $25-30m to use on the debt pile.
On a positive note, the only good part of this RNS is what Lukee has pointed out - "The Board is confident that the DIS business alone could command a valuation materially exceeding the Company's current market capitalisation".
The other hugely good thing is that the major shareholders are going to be aligned on this sale, and with us. It turns out they're not looking at a cheap t/o, and want out as well, which means they will drive a hard bargain on our behalf. And, given this world has huge concentration, I would think one of the big boys will be interested in taking a good chunk of market share to increase their base and exposure in the segment. Again, this should enable us to get a good multiple. I think we need to look at EBITDA multiples for DIS businesses to get a good grip on things, but from memory, a reasonable multiple to work off is 10-12x, especially since this segment is in growth (albeit modest). The immediate market share gain is what I think bigger fish will be interested in achieving.
It would be good to hear other thoughts on the above.
On the 10-12x multiples, one is looking at circa $220-250m valuation or 67p-77p valuation. The rest of the business is predominantly Comparison value, at say 4-5x and Search at 2-3x. Taking the midpoints for multiples (4.5x & 2.5x) and for Full Year guidance (12m & 9m), you get $54m (Comparison) and $22.5m (Search), or circa 23.5p.
Midpoints for total sum of parts = 90p-£1. Adjustment required for $85-90m debt, worth circa 27p. The total value of the sum of parts accounting for debt is 63-73p.
The above feels like a good starting point for discussion. I'm completely open to challenge on my workings. I'll try to dig out our conversation on the recent DIS take-over multiples and read across for us. From memory, it's fairly aligned with the above. The only great thing from today's absolute disaster RNS on guidance is that the major shareholders will be driving for maximum value gain imo.
Breakdown of H1 / Full-Year:
- DIS (H1 $10.7m) / Full Year $21-22m = YoY growth. H1vH2 flat.
- Comparison (H1 $5.4m) / Full Year $11-13m = YoY 20% decline. H1vH2 modest growth (max 5-10%).
- Search (H1 $8.5m) / Full Year $8-10m = YoY destruction. H2 is generating nothing from legacy AFD and RSOC