Member Info for G_G_G

CAD$500m and they can take the lot. That's only about 24p so doesn't seem too ridiculous. It does when the sp is 10.75p though.

The value disconnect has always been crazy here thanks to all the f@ck ups by mgt and their lack of desire to support the sp afterwards. But it's just plain crazy now. There's definitely something afoot given the last mgt gravy train rns. The only other thing I can think could be in the offing is a significant raise somewhere between 10-11p that everyone but PIs know is about to happen. That would take out the 5kboepd production + 25m 2P parts of their options.

Whatever is happening on the acquisition / sale front, the last set of results were quite strong all things considered. This is also the only other share on AIM that I know as undervalued as SHG (my other major position) from an EV:EBITDA standpoint with plenty of upside in low cost / organic growth potential plus low debt. This makes both t/o targets because of these very reasons. So as much as the sp sucks I'd say the only way is up from here. And if one gets an offer then I'll be dropping very heavily into the other. AIMHO GLA

With oil recovering and our sp hitting the 10's I'm not sure what else mgt need to see in order to understand what the investment community think about them. Absolutely time to sell up, which I've been saying since the high teens. The value destruction here is absolutely mind boggling. If they can do one thing right by shareholders let it be getting a decent value for 75% (or 100%) of the entire company. They can give themselves a nice little bonus at the same time. Hopefully not long to wait until they finally get the message. GLA

I think a t/o is all but guaranteed in the next 12 months. One needs to keep in mind the speed at which our EV:EBITDA multiple will adjust with Au above $1900, 2024 production @ 110k oz, and net debt turning to net cash with a build rate of $20m EBITDA per quarter from now.

At current run-rate we're on an annualized multiple of circa 1.8 based on last quarter's results - current mcap ($140m), net debt $5m, and $80m Ebitda (annualized).

Now if the sp (mcap) was to remain the same, Au @ 1900, AISC $1100 average, production 110k oz then you're looking at at circa $50m cash build ($90m EBITDA -($20m tax + $20m exploration)). So you exit with $140m mcap - $50m (cash) / $90m EBITDA. This gives you a multiple of 1. That's 1!!!!!

The above doesn't take into account $20m exploration adding +1m oz to mine life and value, or the $30m VAT owing from the Tanz government, which if offset against future tax liabilities would mean a forecast multiple of circa 0.8.

The numbers are completely bonkers, which is why I'm saying we won't exist in 12 months. An offer of 20p will probably get the votes and the buyer would still be picking up a company on an EV:EBITDA of 2 @ 20p. If we get the ML at WK or the license around Sing in this time then things get even stupider from a value perspective for any buyer. No doubt a few mid to large African operators looking at us right now. I've got 4.5m shares here now and if I could free up more money I'd be going even deeper. AIMHO GLA

Labour government have mentioned they'll end the tax breaks for Nth Sea development. That's the biggest issue for future projects. And until the industry knows what they're intending to do on this front there will be little to no further investment in the basin. And yes Labour are that stupid, which is why so many companies are no longer wishing to invest anything in this f@cked up country. The British political landscape is a clusterf@ck of clowns. Ever since Brexit you just keep wondering how the hell things have gotten so bad, then you remember Boris, Liz and now Rishi pandering to their uneducated, populist base.

On i3e, they're clearly having conversations about the Nth Sea that now involve Tailwind / Serica and Kyle / Banff. What shape those conversations have taken who knows, but it will almost certainly involve Serenity and Tain. The 75% PDP inclusion is also quite telling. Given mgt love to look after themselves I wouldn't be surprised if a deal is being thrashed out for exactly this level of sale and they're simply getting ahead of it. One has to hope their self-interest will extend to us, and we get a decent value for whatever is being negotiated. If someone offered me 20p tomorrow I'd take their hand off.

In the meantime I'm looking at my SHG stake and thanking god I started selling down here and building up there. Sp are almost at parity now, meaning I could sell everything there and buy back here for close to 6.5m shares. I started selling down here when sitting on 4.7m shares. And SHG has a long way to run in the coming weeks / months. Says it all about i3e really. Sale is the only thing that will fix the value gap here. The sooner the better imo. GLA

that second rns, my god these guys need to get their **** together. and we wonder why the sp is in the toilet when compared to our canadian peers on fundamentals!

my take is yes they're still milking the cow. when i say our mgt team are very good at the operational side of things i should have also added they're very good at looking after themselves. what i've said about them not giving two ****s about pis still stands. this is evidenced by the fact they cannot be bothered with keeping investors abreast of what they're doing, or providing this information in a timely manner. they will however keep us abreast of their cushy options packages even when the sp is at ridiculous lows.

having said all this, it would appear they have told us something that we didn't know, which is they're having conversations on kyle / banff. i also wouldn't be surprised if this involves some kind of partnership with tailwind on tain / serenity as well. certainly appears this way.

the other addition, as many have pointed out, is the 75% pdp sale trigger. this is entirely new and points to divestment of our canadian assets. interesting also because it points to the untapped part of our acreage and not for instance the sale of 75% of production.

either way they're obviously talking about these things in the background. to my mind this points to the break up of canada / uk. and it points to them adding licenses and areas for the uk to become its own entity alongside tailwind.

so not all bad news if true. they're a bunch of self-serving pr!cks our mgt team though. let's hope for a sale of some sort. aimho gla

Who would have thought that 13p would represent good value here. Mgt need to put up the 'for sale' sign because the company value has become a joke. Hopefully a PE backed fund will come along and put everyone out of their misery. Majid can even keep his cushy £600k job and never have to worry about doing any interviews again. I note there hasn't been an interview on the back of the Q3 results. Funny as this was a decent set of results with no nasty surprises that most of us on here worry about. I'd be over the moon with 20p right now. There's simply no way I see us getting there with this mgt team, listed in the UK, and poo below $100.

I'm all for 2024 incremental production to be focused solely on oil rich wells. Out of gas / oil there's only one where we can apply a solid floor to pricing for the year. The likelihood of WTI averaging less than $70 for 2024 is very low. I suspect it will be around $75-80 providing the ME conflict doesn't spread further. A soft landing in the US with interest rate tapering in H2 will also help poo. For Canadian gas prices, well that's another matter. I don't see a solid floor and won't at all be surprised if it averages closer to CAD$2 in 2024. So pump cash into oil and leave the gas alone for now. Once the pipelines and lng plants are set-up for export then re-assess.

Doing anything in the Nth Sea imo would be a big mistake. I believe the market would rather see time and money invested into Canada, and not an area that has so many question marks hanging over it from an economics, production / execution, and political standpoint. I'd be happy for them to pick up the Tain license then sell it to a larger player. Having said tat I'm unsure who is going to buy, but even if we get $5m I'd be happy for that to add another 500 bopd in Canada.

Decent (expected) set of results and we're down to the mid 11's. It does make you wonder what would have happened if the results were even slightly bad...

When looking at the financials we're now sitting at an EV:NOI multiple of 2, which is f@cking nuts. From my pov there's literally no way we're going to reach 20p again unless they de-list and move to the TSX. Or, they put up a for sale sign. Commodity prices only appear to impact the sp in any meaningful way when in a downward trajectory. We got to the mid 14's when poo was $90. And now at $75 we're in the mid 11's with gas prices having improved. Unless war breaks out in the ME I don't see poo getting back to $90 and I certainly don't see any strength in gas for the next 12 months given supply dynamics. Hence I think we should sell up and move on.

Incredible thing is at this rate a good rns at SHG and I'll be able to do a clean swap of 4.5m shares back here. And that's with Au dropping recently. Given their extreme under-valuation and size of my position in both I'm hoping one of them is going to get a t/o approach whilst prices are down here and then I can shift the lot into the other. There's a limit to how much commodities can sink from these levels with the world in its current state and NOPEC + Strategic Reserves backstops. Without interest rate cuts in the coming 12 months my bet is poo and gas will sit around USD WTI $70-80 and CAD$2-2.50 Aeco. So not strong, but certainly not weak providing you have a decent balance sheet.

I think i3e is a bottom drawer stock now. Hopefully they'll keep the dividend at the total 2023 payout level for 2024. This will put a higher floor under the sp and still provide a very strong & reliable yield next year. From there they can focus on improving our production levels, mix, and other optimizations with the remaining capital not earmarked for debt repayments. If this includes a few wells further proving up our tier 1 acreage then surely we'll get an offer in the next 12 months if the sp is still sub 15p.

As I said, this is now a bottom drawer income stock until we get a reasonable t/o offer, which I'd put at 22-25p. AIMHO GLA

agreed equanimity and daisan, and the fact we're making a **** ton of cash even with au at $1800 also helps one to sleep well at night. providing au sits above $1900 for the next 7 weeks then we should end up having our most profitable quarter in the company's history and somewhere between $5-10m in net cash. something else to help one sleep at night regardless of what happens in the remainder of the market.

Bottom line I don't see the sp moving much for a while, and by this I mean above 15p. I think the market will be reminded of the value proposition here in the upcoming Q3 results, but by market I mean the very few investors following i3e. Unless more people are exposed to the value proposition versus peers then we stay at this level. Even poo at $90 did f@ck all for the sp. Anything on new drilling won't do much until we see results next year.

About the only lever they can pull that will move the sp is increasing the dividend, and I don't see them doing this until year-end. Share BBs will do f@ck all given many will sell into the small amount they could direct to BBs, and would be better put into increasing production. The only other thing is they could do to generate a decent return for shareholders is put up the 'for sale' sign. This would be the best thing to do in the interest of shareholders but I think Majid is a little too comfortable on his £600k salary and six-figure dividends from the millions of free shares he awarded himself. They should stop looking to buy and start looking to sell. At least this way lth's won't have to suffer the indignity of a massive raise and see mgt award themselves millions more shares for doing their job. Hopefully the update on Thursday so we can all get a sense of what the company has been doing the past 3 months and their plans for the remainder of the year.

Seriously what the f@ck is happening to the gold price. This makes zero sense given national debt levels, central bank buying, geo-political issues, creaking economies. It's like the 2008 housing crisis from the recession where nothing made sense until the whole f@cking thing imploded. Thankfully I have more cash to stick in SHG but still annoying seeing the Au price dropping like and us alongside it.

As for the stalking Jim, I think you're both guilty of it. You had never posted here until Tony started calling you out. So with respect to this board, you're the stalker.

Louis / Jim, I cannot see you providing any insight to this board from your hundreds of posts. Go back and find me a single post where you've outlined your position and provided reasoning to back it up - seriously find a single one. And this is only made worse by the fact you don't own the company where you're constantly posting. You're clearly a tumbling d!ckweed of the highest order, but you also need to get your head checked because this isn't normal behavior.

Dave, I think it's only a matter of time. If it's an 'approach' then I'm looking forward to the average PI lemming running here screaming that it's worth 50p all day etc. So many rainbow chasers on these boards. But thankfully that's why we can find under-valued stocks like this before the herd turns up. GLA

tony, the pricing for aeco and oil were far lower when mgt dropped their shambolic rns. re dividend cut, i can't work out whether you think this was (and is) bad for the sp based on your continued negativity around how they increased it. first they went too high, and now they've gone too low imo. if the divi was 20% higher than now the sp would likely be in the same place. no new drilling is who's responsibility...? capital restructure delay...? tain license being dropped probably has more to do with what repsol said when they dropped it. the biggest point being if they're concerned about the economic and recoverability factors then why the hell are we still going about things with our coin flip acreage in serenity...? serenity appears to be a busted flush that would have benefitted by being tagged on to tain. now it's simply acreage with a big question mark hanging over it.

bottom line is mgt are very good at the operational side of things. and they're very poor at financial forecasting, pr and timely shareholder updates. the latter points have killed shareholder confidence and heightened annoyance. the sp is near it's lowest point since they dropped a bag of **** on the market in late june. and yet the combined aeco and oil prices are far better now versus back then. hence the reason we're better off being sold in the low 20's because i don't see any scenario where we get back to this valuation with mgt's current approach and form. aimho gla

The most likely 'would be' predator for us would be PE imo. It's not that we're too small for a mid size to larger player, it's more that we have hundreds of wells to maintain. Our high yielding land packages is what would interest them, but only after we've given enough proof of what we're sitting on. And unfortunately we're not drilling many wells in these areas.

For PE, simply offering double our sp would still put us on an EV:EBITDA of less than 4.5. It's an incredibly easy decision to make providing poo stays near $80 and one is leaning toward oil-weighted wells. They will have enough money to maintain production, lean into oil (whilst proving up valuable acreage), and still have circa $50m NOI left over with poo @ 80 and AECO above $2.50. By not paying a dividend they can also boost production or keep as income. And the reason why they can plan in this way for the next 5 years is because poo will stay near these levels due OPEC+ constraining production, which is then backstopped @ $70 by strategic reserves purchases.

Hopefully a hostile bid by PE @25p, Majid can keep his job and not have to worry about interviews (suiting him perfectly), and the majority of PIs can walk away with varying degrees of profit (not including generous dividends). Anyone here saying 'we're worth more' needs to look at the sp objectively and ask why given we haven't broken 15p when poo was in the 90's. Getting 25p would be a massive win for everyone. And it's the opportunity cost of having capital parked here continually under-valued when it could go elsewhere earning value and/or income from other investments. Majid had a good go of things, but now needs to acknowledge the market will not value the company anywhere near what we could get from a PE bid. So he should put up the 'for sale' sign if genuinely working in the interests of shareholders. AIMHO GLA

Gold price is a funny one as well. Rises every morning GMT time, and then drops sharply early afternoon. I'm assuming it has something to do with the other side of the pond. Weird how much it drops though.

there's three things at work; 1) underwhelming drill results, 2) ex-divi, 3) ret@rded pis. the third factor is the driving force of the sp and amplifies the impact of the first two. does anyone think that odey would be selling now if they were still major holders...?

i have never gotten why everyone talks about the 'little guy' getting f@cked so often when the little guy is a complete moron running from pipe dream to pipe dream. you just need some snake oil salesman talking boll@cks on aim and the lemmings will come running. it's fine by me as i never thought we'd drop back to the 10's. i have more money to sink here and the more it drops, the more i'll buy. as for pis, well in most cases i have no sympathy for them. the 'dark arts' of mms and iis make little difference when you're investing on fundamentals and have a time-frame of more than 12 months. i've been guilty of making some dumb @ss investments on aim. and each time against my better judgement i was looking for a 'quick return'. on three companies i've attempted to short-term trade - nccl, eml and rmm - i've made about £100k and lost about £200k. all of them were going to be quick 25% trades but the issue is you can get caught on the wrong side of news. where i've made a significant amount of money is companies with strong under-lying fundamentals like i3e, jet2, plus500, meta, alphabet when they've been sold down for no good reason. my big losses were typical !diotic aim pi behaviour. and my big wins were genuine investments.

as much as i hate people saying this, value will out. we're not on enough radars and some stonking grades at wk would have helped change that, but luckily we still have a lot more to come over the coming 12 weeks in terms of exploration and q4 results. imagine being a hum investor waiting for the inevitable **** q4 results. the gold price is the only reason that company has survived. pure luck and nothing else. if there wasn't a pandemic, global conflict etc they'd be f@cked. not so here. happy for people to keep selling as i'd love to pick up more shares around 10.5p if possible. gla

Given the way the sp has been bouncing off 12p the past few months, I'm starting to think the market has priced us at £150m mcap. It's either that or the IIs know there's a raise happening around this level. The former often happens when the market has no real idea of how to value a company so often sits the mcap on nice big round numbers. The latter is also something that occasionally happens, which is why I've put it out there. If it were to happen then mgt will have a lot to answer for.

Fwiw I think it's the former given the way we dropped hard to this point post the clusterf@ck of news they delivered at the end of June. We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

Https://www.ft.com/content/432dbfef-71fd-471e-9e05-a81b1a46f3a6

Just a reminder of the source of sp malaise over the past 6 or so months - I have no idea when they first started selling down. Odey has just now reported to being closed down.