Member Info for G_G_G

It's a good point on the Au price Loggy. The number of headlines that will be generated on gold will no doubt cause a lot of money to start heading toward under-valued miners. It's not often that you see an all time high in a commodity with a strong near-term outlook. What many will note is that Au is likely to go on quite a run in the coming years as the Fed starts to taper interest rates. I think we could be in for a post great recession type rise that will take us to $3k. What people need to understand is that $2500 Au price means we're throwing off EBITDA that's the equivalent of our current mcap. If you add a growing cash pile plus the ability to generate another 30% production within 12 months you start to get some silly numbers even for the EV:EBITDA ration to remain at a stupidly low level of 2. Once they make the call on the expansion at Sing it will then be a countdown until we get to 25p. Here's some numbers based on 140k oz production run rate and Au @ $2k from Q1 2025:

Q1 2025 sp = 25p

Mcap = USD$315m mcap

Forward Ebitda (12 months to end 2025) = $115m (140k oz production, Au $2k, AISC $1200)

EV = USD$275m (based on 2024 USD$40m cash pile)

Forward EV:EBITDA = 2.4 (on 140k oz production)

This is why I find it hard to believe we won't be 25p in a little over 12 months. This also doesn't take into account additional oz across 3 tenements. ML at WK. Additional near mine license in Tanz (500k reserves). Or $30min VAT receivables. The t/o price in 12 months will need to be at least 35p in order to get accepted providing Au is $2k. If gold goes on a run like many are forecasting then all bets are off. AIMHO GLA

Are you referring to me bottomsup? I'm more likely to be a buyer at this pathetic price. I'll be a seller if we re-visit 12-13p for no significant reason, but I certainly won't be surprised if we're still sub 11p in a few months. Who knows, maybe the champagne and canapes jolly in Mayfair could add a penny later this week. Sp now regularly going into single digits, even after the recent rock bottom director buys. Laughable really.

I think if Au stays where it is for the next couple of days and just 25% of dvi money is reinvested then we should see the end of the 11's. Some drilling results would obviously be welcomed as well, especially after I've just topped up :)

Just added 32500 to my ISA pile :) Now some for the missus.

Unvkrw, yes I built up a 4.5m holding at an average of about 9.98p. Generally when I see a company this undervalued I'm willing to throw most of my portfolio at it. So one could say I'm over-exposed on SHG but I'm very comfortable with my position. My only regret is I didn't take my entire Aim investment portfolio and put it in here. I stupidly have 2m shares still parked in f@cking i3e. Had I sold them and continued to invest here when I was thinking of doing it I'd have 7.1m. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Anyone want to place bets on our end of year closing price? I'm going with 13.5p providing we get at least 2 x exploration updates before-hand.

iluvise, i'm simply responding to tony / tnord / littledog. i don't engage with the **** unless he directs some !diotic bull**** in my direction. filter me if you like, i really couldn't care less.

Tony / Tnord / Littleb!tch, you're clearly unable to get the most basic things. The dividend cut has a clear drop off that was extended for months and still hasn't recovered. Just in the same way as the dividend hike gave it a small pop before commodity prices dragged it down over the next 6 months when poo went into the 60's. Check the 2 year chart here and the price action between 21st December and 02nd January.

You're clearly far more dimwitted than I originally thought Tony. Next you're going to be telling us that when all companies raise their dividend (or cut it), it has no affect on the share price. You're a sad man playing board police on a chat forum. And ffs stop messaging me. I have no interest in being your next hard-on target like Louis. Stick to your spreadsheets you tragic man.

Au price is looking fantastic. Crazy thing is it's breaking $2k on the expectation the Fed will start cutting rates in 2024. When they finally start doing it Au is going to be breaking $2500 very quickly. Never been a better time to be in Gold except for 2008. If we get a run like that again then $3k will be reached very quickly.

As for the sp, I still can't believe we're failing to crack 12p. Some dividend reinvestment will no doubt help. I'll certainly be adding my £4.5k if we're still in the 11's. Hopefully some more exploration results in the coming weeks to go with a gold-plated Santa rally. If we do get 2 x sets of exploration results and Au is still above $1970 then I think 13.5p is in the bag. Then we have more exploration plus Q4 results in the first 3 weeks of January. Looking very, very good here.

tony / tnord / littledog, wow what a clown you happen to be. let me help you join the dots, it's really not that hard to do. firstly the share price was on the decline before the dividend hike, any guesses as to why? it's an easy one tony - it's correlated with the poo. secondly, when the dividend hike was announced the sp popped up only to pulled down by guess what, commodity prices. thirdly, when the divided was cut we dropped by 25% in a matter of days. so yes the dividend was propping up the sp, which is evidenced by the fact it got decimated when it was cut in half. so the decline in commodity prices and the expectation the dividend would be cut is what created the decline in the sp to the 16-20p range (around where we should be now). i know this range very well as i sold almost half my holdings at this point. stick to your spreadsheets tony, you're clearly out of your depth on basic analysis. and the next time you decide to open another handle perhaps go with littleb!tch.

genises, i think you'll find i've been critical of mgt on the pr front for years. it really dropped off after graham left. the recent decent results getting zero pr and interviews only points to how majid simply couldn't give a **** right now. same goes for releasing an ltip / bonus rns as the only statement after the results. and then following up with the overdue capital reduction rns (another +ve statement). they killed the sp by another 20% and then went and purchased shares at 10p, as a pathetic attempt to shore up the sp and damage they had done. we deserve to get a low-ball offer and they deserve to be out of a job. ridiculous to think a middle manager could do better than bunch of guys getting paid +£500k not to mention the millions of free shares they have awarded themselves.

a t/o offer is the only way to realize some value here, however i'd be willing to bet mgt are side-stepping this at every corner to keep their cushy salaries and options. i wouldn't be surprised if approaches have been made already. lesson here is i should have dumped in the 13-14p range rather than saying i'd wait for us to get back to the very low end of reasonable value at 16p. i stupidly thought they'd go all out on the pr front after the first set of results with no nasty surprises in some time. alas majid has shown it's all just empty promises with regard to generating pr and investor support. gla

Tony / Tnord / Littledog, you can go find my posts. I seem to recall you have a penchant for digging around in people's posting history so you'll probably enjoy it. While you're at it get rid of your handles. Tnord, Little dog, what else do you have? You've dodged getting called out on it a few times now. I mean Tnord isn't even trying now is it Tonynorstrom.

As for the dividend hoke, it was one of the main under-pinnings of the sp for some time. Otherwise it wouldn't have f@cked the sp when it was cut now would it. Hardly rocket science that a dividend under-pins the sp of most companies, but I guess you missed that class.

Now go have some fun with your mate Louis.

Tony, you seem to forget the dividend did pump the sp. And when they cut it the sp got decimated. So doing such a thing does actually work. The problem was they cut it by so much alongside the monthly payments. If the cut wasn't in half and the monthly payments were retained we'd be sitting a lot higher right now. So pretty dumb comment there Tony, even for you.

Also, they are sitting on their @sses. Commissioning a WH Ireland piece weeks after the Q3 report, is that your idea of promoting the company? I see your head is still up Majid's @ss Tony. Try removing to get a better view of reality, which is 10p by the way.

And I've already given my great ideas in a number of posts. Go back and have a read Tnord, Little Dog. Best stick to your spreadsheets rather than ideas to support the sp.

Why are WH Ireland using Henry Hub gas prices in their research piece given we're AECO priced? And we're in CAD. From what I can see it means their 'car crash' scenario for gas is way off the mark. Perhaps add in CAD $2.25 (or USD $1.65) for AECO. The WTI car crash price feels about right @ USD$60. I think realistic numbers for 2024 are closer to WTI USD$75 average and AECO CAD$2.50 for 2024. I have no idea where this means we'd bottom out but I suspect we'd be able to maintain the dividend and put about USD$25m toward production.

One thing it reinforces is the need to focus on liquids. The near term future for oil is far better than gas and that's where they should be directing investment. The US strategic reserve will take about 1-2m bopd if poo drops past $75 and will put a floor @ $70. So if we direct all cash to oil next year it will mean the headline 'boepd' line may reduce, but NOI will be far more buoyant. War in the middle east will disproportionately impact poo, same for any internal conflict in Russia or Nth Africa. Imo they should drill only liquids rich wells and if they cannot find a decent liquid heavy acquisition then start using debt to add a couple more wells (within reason). Providing they work pay-back scenarios at WTI$70-80 then we'll be fine and in a decent position for 2025.

Tony, it would be good to know what your spreadsheets are saying for NOI and FCF if poo is $75 and AECO $2.50 in 2024 (my 2024 estimates). I think your numbers are probably the closest out of all estimates, which sadly includes i3e.

SP is a f@cking disaster and should be a source of shame for mgt. Even their share purchases were poorly timed given they side-stepped interviews on the back of decent Q3 results and then dropped a LTIP/bonus bomb into the mix, which they know shareholders hate after they awarded themselves so many shares previously. Completely out of touch. AIMHO GLA

iluvise, there's nothing to be pleased about when mgt have sat on their @sses collecting massive salaries while the sp is rotting and the company remains unknown. if they cared about the sp then why no interviews after the first set of results in some time that didn't contain any **** stains? why not then buy shares at 12p? why not then put out the capital reduction rns? and after all these things why not then put out the undeserving ltip and bonus pools?

mgt also have a habit of putting their hands in their pockets only after they've decimated the sp, which is good for them, but hardly a reason for the market to think it's a good time to get in. majid of course prefers the 'free' route. no excuses.

Au back through $2000 and doesn't look like it's going to drop below $1980. Some more of the same inflation, job reports and retail spending numbers and I can see us staying above $2k for all of 2024. The Fed will signal tapering from May in the Feb 01st announcement and then Au will be off to the races. Throw in all our news over this 6 month period and we're going to be 15-20p guaranteed. Any t/o offer sub 25p is going to need to land in the next few months for it to have a chance of being accepted. At the moment we're a straight up money printing machine. Current Q4 average Au price is going to be +$1950 providing we stay above this level for December. Extrapolate with some reasonable assumptions of $1100 group AISC and 28k oz production and you get $23.8m EBITDA.

In summary the Q4 update in the second half of January is going to look extremely good. We'll have exploration results back from all three tenements, net cash position, and possibly a new CEO announcement. Throw in significant reserves upgrade later in Q1 alongside a decision to expand Sing production and I cannot see the sp being below 15p providing Au is still above $1900. Solid +30% from now in 8 weeks. Sometimes it's very easy to make money. GLA

good and bad on the closed trading front. yes it means there's no dilutive acquisition on the cards. it also means no-one is looking to buy us.

nice that majid and ryan have paid some attention to the dire position of the sp and put their hands in their pockets for once. doesn't change the fact that no-one knows about us, and the silly value proposition here. imagine if they bought shares after doing rounds of interviews on the back of some decent q3 results. sp would have been stronger and they could then award themselves some ltip shares at 13p rather than 11.3p. instead they do everything @ss about and the sp gets hammered before they buy shares at 10p. what a bunch of f@cking !diots.

on buy-backs, yes they appear to make sense when the sp is 10p but i don't see them having much of an impact. the rarely do anything and will only provide an avenue for long suffering pis to sell into should we get back to 12-13p. take a look at hbr and how much of its stock has been bought back as an example. and they have a very strong financial position even with the government wft. i'd like to see any money for bbs being put into drilling (primarily) and then boosting the divi a little more. the divi will force up the sp. and the drilling will support it moving forward. like others i'd like to see them use the debt to drill rather than just sitting on it.

another 4-8 weeks before we get news on the dividend and 2024 outlook /plans. i was thinking the sp couldn't get any worse when we were sitting on £150m mcap (12.5p). let's hope our useless mgt team don't drop any other bags of **** on the sp in the meantime. aimho gla

Hi Adw, it's really broad brush strokes (yet conservative) based on the last 2 quarters. Given the last 2 quarters I've used:

- $1200 AISC (higher than last 2 quarters)

- $1900 Au price (lower for this quarter)

- Production of 27.5k oz (average last 2 quarters & 2024 guidance)

From this you get $19.25m EBITDA. Publican mentioned some additional costs from last quarter that no-one expected. But in Q2 you need to keep in mind they cleared over $10m in debt. If Au averages $1950 (current expectation), AISC are $1050 (current average), and we mine the higher end at 29k (Q2 production) then you get to $26m EBITDA. So with net debt at circa $5m I'm expecting us to land somewhere between $5-10m in net cash even with taxes, dividend payment etc.

After this with Au averaging +$1900 then I would expect $10m cash build to be relatively safe assumption even if they're throwing $25m ($6m per quarter) at further exploration. One needs to keep in mind this is a lot of drilling across the 3 tenements. Our EBITDA will range between $20-30m per quarter with Au ranging $1900-2000, AISC ranging $1000-1200, and production ranging 27-30k oz per quarter.

That's the thinking at least. Basically every quarter in 2024 we'll be adding a lot of ounces to reserves across 3 tenements, building to expand production by 30% in 2025, and still adding to our net cash position (lowering our EV). That's why I'm saying it's an easy double from here providing Au stays above $1900 and we have no mine breakdowns etc. An offer will definitely need to be +20p to have a chance of succeeding in the next 3 months. In 6-9 months I think at least 25p. And in 12 months at least 30p (providing 140koz is the 2025 production forecast). AIMHO GLA

You may well be right regarding poo Stas. The problem here is the sp no longer reacts to increases in poo like most other companies. So although it may jump back to the high 70's I won't be surprised if we're still sitting sub 10p. I thought at the very least 10p would hold, which it hasn't. The next stop will be £100m mcap, or circa 8.5p. If it drops to near that level then I'll start buying again.

To answer your last post Stas it wasn't me. I've certainly been tempted today but SHG has more good news on the very near horizon and I think I can get another 10% over there before I take some wins and move back here. Given the direction of travel for the sp today I'd have to question whether any +500k trades are buys. If SHG hits 13p in the next week or so and we're below 10p then I'll probably sell 1m and buy another 1.5m or so here. Hopefully a bounce and then I can decide on whether to move back again. Single digit sp. What a mess this has become.

I agree with pretty much everything Publican, except the Au price. Reckon we may need to wait until Q1 before we see new highs. I see Au range bound ($1970 - 2010) until the next set of inflation, retail sales and jobs reports come out. If heading in the same direction then Feb 01st Fed meeting should light the blue paper to push Au to all time highs. To be honest I think this will be perfect timing for the sp to start pushing toward all-time highs as well. We'll have received the Q4 results, which will be spectacular and show a net cash position of circa $10m. And we should have received all exploration results by this point, which will then feed into the Feb/Mar reserves report. From there they can sanction the second ball mill at Sing and we're off to the races. By end H1 I'd be surprised if we're not at 20p. A bid then will need to be closer to 30p.

As mentioned many times, the longer a would be predator waits to make a bid the more they will have to pay. This is especially the case if Au continues on its current trajectory, which imo is all but guaranteed. Remember every quarter we're adding +$10m cash to our accounts. By the end of next year we'll have $50m in cash sitting on top of +1moz of additional resources (min), ML for WK, and140k oz production profile for 2025. Then we have jokers in the pack like Sing super-pit, $30m VAT receivables, and another Tanz near mine license with +500k defined resources. All will add 5p in their own rights. Sing super-pit could make this go silly.

I just need my straggler to pick up in i3e and I'll add more to my pile here. Divis will obviously be reinvested. Something else for the sp next week. Reckon we will get an incremental +3m shares picked up by current investors with their divi payments. Put this buying on top of what we're currently seeing and you can add another half penny to our base. Soon to be knocking on 13.5p resistance imo (as in the next few weeks). GLA

dartron, i'm not sure an activist clearing out the bod will help the sp. t/o on the other hand kills two birds with one stone - we get paid out, and majid gets paid out. it's such a ****show now that it's hard to get any grip on wtf is happening. i note we're now dipping into single digits. i also note that pretty much everyone on here agrees that a t/o is the best way forward (or ate least aren't protesting and saying we're worth 30, 40, 50p). the bod have f@cked things up royally. they may think we're worth more, but at the same time they can't be @ssed doing anything to fix the value disconnect.

i'm also starting to worry there's a 10p raise around the corner. how on earth otherwise do we get to a £120m mcap with $90-95m noi, negligible net debt, 10% dividend yield, and +20k boepd production. something is starting to stink.

Sorry forgot a major one:

- Sing expansion update and decision.