RE: Zak’s trade3 Jan 2024 10:54
HNY folks. Haven't been here for a little while as I'm almost completely out of i3e (500k remaining) and now b@lls deep in SHG. Not forever as I'll most likely reinvest here after the take-over shenanigans at SHG have been finalised.
I share many of the concerns of Stas and nomad. For me the biggest concern is the 2024 look-ahead and not the Q4 results. Even if Q4 just falls short of their NOI projections the numbers are very impressive for 2023 (versus current mcap), especially given the oil / gas price volatility and the Q3 fires impacting production.
As for 2024, I personally don't see gas prices improving until the lng streams come online in 2025 (if that happens). The world is also awash with gas and there's new production coming online constantly. There has also been an energy mix change away from gas by Europe. So gas is the quite large sp anchor for this year imo. Oil on the other hand I see as a safe +$70 WTI for 2024 thanks to supply / demand dynamics driven by OPEC+ manipulation and strategic reserve re-filling. This is why I think i3e should direct their development budget toward oil and certainly for any acquisitions.
North Sea (Tain) could be interesting but suspect this is months away from any news. And there's the fact the previous holders felt it was too risky from a geological standpoint. How much of this is true I don't know, and suspect it was more about it being a giant pain in the @ss to develop for a small return (for a major). And there's the id!otic UK government f@cking Nth Sea O&G every which way. Not sure it will do much to the sp, but could be a penny or two depending on how it's sold and how long they will take for any action in the fields.
As for 2024, my concern is there will be a dividend cut, which will lead to a drop in the sp. We know the market sees i3e as a bit risky, which is why a yield of 8-10% has been the norm. So if they cut the 2024 divi by 25% then I'd expect the sp to react accordingly. This would be a good time to get in as I think that will be the floor for 2024.
As usual I see a t/o as the best course for shareholders to see any decent return in 2024. Or, i3e pulling another rabbit out of the hat with an oil heavy acquisition. AIMHO GLA