Member Info for G_G_G

Tony, weird you're not playing your usual record of supporting mgt no matter what. Are you finally tiring of seeing the sp decline and mgt's lack of effort in supporting the company that pays their fat wages and bonuses?

3lb, you couldn't be more wrong. i'd much prefer us to be sitting at peer averages for ev:noi, which i imagine would have us back around the 18-20p range. but for whatever reason our mgt team are incapable of having us seen as simply an 'average' canadian o&g company. i'd also like the option to sell at these prices.

for some context, when i started speaking about shg a month or so ago it was around 9.75p and is now 10.75p. it has also paid a dividend in this time. and is clearing a large seller. in this time i3e has dropped from circa 13p to 10.5p. if i sold all my shg and moved the cash back here i would have 6.7m shares versus 4.75m if i held i3e the entire time from when i first started selling down in the 18-20p range. and even with these ridiculous lows i'm going to sit in shg as i have more faith it will get to 15p in the next 6 months than i3e. the only way i3e revisits this ****ty level is with a major asset or full sale of the company. and even then i think shg is the better t/o target given it was approached by a number of parties this time last year. i also imagine majid will do everything he can to keep his £600k salary. in summary we have to live in hope of a hostile t/o just to get near 20p.

stas, i couldn't agree more with your last post. ironic isn't it. but that's what you get if mgt can't be bothered promoting the company, especially after dropping a few clusterf@ck rns, and awarding themselves tens of millions of options over the years. this last award took us down at least 10%, and it came before they released the capital reduction rns. why couldn't they wait until after some good news? let's hope they're feathering their nest pre-sale.

Brace for single digits folks. And where are the mgt team during all of this? Are they doing interviews and announcing to the market plans to drive value in the company...? They're probably working on 1p Options awards for when they do a heavily dilutive capital raise at 9p. What a bunch of useless pr!cks. They couldn't even be bothered putting out the capital reduction rns in a timely manner, let alone before they gave themselves some more shares. No doubt they thought 11p was a steal, but didn't consider how much the market is sick of them doing it and the sp dropping another 10% as a consequence. Not to worry though, I'm sure the champagne and canapes in Mayfair at the end of the month will help.

I also note that no-one is saying 30p value here etc. when I've been mentioning the only way for shareholders to make some money (for those with averages below 15p) is to put up a for sale sign. Even my capital gain is f'all when accounting for the reinvestment of dividends. Anything near 20p and we should be grateful. And ffs please no more 'poo has dropped'. Poo was $90 not that long ago and what was the sp? The last time our sp was this level we were still churning over half a billion shares. And our production was significantly lower. Time for Majid to sell up and stop milking this company and shareholders.

pretty obvious the ltip and cash pool rns went down like a wet f@rt in an elevator. wonder if mgt have gotten the message that investors are sick of their self-serving **** and want them to focus on promoting the company and driving the share price rather than looking after themselves. i'd be far less annoyed if the options were set at 15p when we were at 11.5p. the major shareholders need to force some change because it's now beyond a joke now. we're at 10.5p ffs.

Oh boy, look at the gold price. There is ridiculous value here. If Au stays above $1950 we're going to have +$10m net cash come quarter end. Our EV:EBITDA multiple will then start moving lower in an incredibly rapid manner providing Au stays above $1900 for the remainder of 2024. This time next year it will be less than 1. Looking at this another way, for us to remain near our current ridiculous multiple of circa 2, the sp will need to double.

Thanks Pacifico, some great insights there. Unfortunate they haven't committed more spend to Sing exploration this year. I do hope they push hard in Q1 on the entire Sing tenement. This is without doubt our greatest near-term value driver given it's so heavily under-explored (with such high potential), has a low-cost operating mine nearby (so oz can be converted to profit easily and quickly), and is key to increasing our production by a significant amount within 12 months. Happy to see WK tick over at a slower rate in 2024, but if we want explosive value driven from activity we need to DRILL DRILL DRILL Sing in H1 2024.

canuck, the sp now is hardly worth any of the major investors who fed at the trough years ago at 5p still holding. i'm also unsure how many of them filled up at the 11p raise. either way they're not sitting on particularly large profits given what has happened to oil prices in this time. and jpm are out of the money now as well. they're certainly not going to be happy. the sp is a complete farce at the moment. if i were a major holder i'd be demanding a sale right now as i have no confidence in mgt building value here in the near term. sp is so **** i may even start moving cash from shg back here.

I seriously won't be surprised if we drop back to single digits in the coming weeks. I thought the high 11's were overdone when we briefly visited this level after the clusterf@ck rns they dropped back in late June. But now with gas and poo higher, we're sitting on 10.5p. It would only take poo to retreat to the low $70's and we'll be back to single digits. And what are mgt doing? Visiting Mayfair for canapes with some low level city spivs.

The last set of results were decent and most importantly had no nasty surprises. And what do mgt do afterwards...? Interviews? Nope, they release a poorly worded options and rewards rns. This is before they release a statement on the capital reduction that was late to market.

It's frightening how clueless and disconnected the mgt team happen to be here. Hopefully some major shareholders are going to push for a mgt shake-up or sale. They can't be happy with their investment in this company right now.

Jesus these guys are useless. Speak to investment journalists associated with publications in the UK and in particular Canada. Do an interview with lse or Proactive and then promote it on their sites - I'm looking at an interview by Neo metals on this board. Speak with Shubham, Malcy, Doc Jones - any self-styled O&G investment guru (just not that f@cking fraud Oil Man Jim).

Instead we're seeing a 121 in a Mayfair Hotel. Seriously who turns up to these things? If it's correct that PIs are the cause of the sp malaise then why not reach them via all the avenues they visit, instead of this. Smells like a nice expenses paid trip to Mayfair for Majid and other mgt.

PUT UP THE FOR SALE SIGN MAJID YOU T!T

Looks like we may still have a seller with all those 100k trades going through earlier today. Certainly keeping a lid on the sp. Who in their right mind would be dumping at this time? There's literally zero risk of a dilutive raise to impact the sp as we've paid for every near-term major expansion and have zero net debt. And the only real risk overall is operational with a ball mill going down or something of the like. This of course can be quite easily fixed with all the cash we're accruing. Geo-political risk is minimal at the moment. And when geo-political was very high SHG was still around this sp with one less mine, a lot less oz being produced, more debt and a lower gold price. Truly bizarre.

I agree with another poster here. We just need one big piece of news to land. Whether it's bonanza grades at WK, or even better would be evidence that Sing is one major resource. This last one will grab the herd's attention and could double our sp overnight. It's what we need to expand production at Sing and will almost certainly be the key to unlocking a large t/o bid. I hope they put aside $25m for 2024 exploration and point at least $15m at our two mine sites. The remainder can go on WK. Near mine exploration should be the focus to unlock value imo.

WK is worth very little at the moment, and for good reason. There's a lot of drilling to be done. We don't have a pfs, let alone dfs. We don't have a water tight mining license. And it's in Africa. So it's unsurprising the market gives us very little for this asset at the moment. Having said this it should be worth at least 3-5p. If you don't see 15 months as a very long period of time then many of these things will have changed. We should have finished all WK drilling, have proved up +3m oz M&I resource, and have a mining license. This will provide the first big value jump on the asset as it's when we can sell it.

For now I'd like to see them continue drilling WK, but double up on NL and Singida in particular. If in the next 15 months we can show in the Q1 2025 Reserves report that both mines have +10 years P&P reserves for both assets @ 135k oz per annum, then we're laughing. This would also mean they can sanction the expansion at at Sing at some point in H1 2024 and increase production from Q1 2025 to 135-140k oz. That puts us at +20p all day with Au above $1900 for NL & Sing alone. It also means we should have at least $50m in cash by Q1 2025 (worth 4p).

Then add WK value, which will have added +1m oz M&I resources and a mining license. And the other possible things to add are the 500k oz license near Sing (currently being ruled on by Tanz government), plus $30m in VAT potentially coming back (2.5p value)

In total I see an easy 25p sp by Q1 2025 with Au @ +$1900, Sing expansion complete (135-140k per annum run rate), and WK mining license being awarded. I'm happy to wait until Q1 2025 for 2.5x current sp, but as I've said many times I highly doubt we'll still exist. I think we'll have a t/o offer for somewhere between 20-25p in the next 6 months. There's simply no way it won't happen with the 2 x low-cost mines we operate, and reserves / resources we own across 3 x tenements.

Some numbers, in 12 months with Au +$1900 and our sp @ 20p it would still put us on EV:EBITDA of 2. That's 2!!! If they do the Sing expansion with gold +$1900 then by the end of 2025 our sp will need to be 26p for our EV:EBITDA to remain at 2. And that's without any value added for WK, or the other license, or VAT receivables.

This is why we won't exist in 12 months. Hopefully mgt will get us 25p with any t/o offer in the next 6-12 months. One thing's for sure though, any would be acquirer will need to add at least 5p to any offer for every 12 months they wait. Very exciting 12 month proposition here especially given Au price looks like it's going to break much higher over this time. AIMHO GLA

Looks like a sell, which makes sense given the way the sp didn't react to Au prices. Can only help with helping us to push upwards in the coming weeks and months. Mind boggling value still to be had here.

anon, you're right there's no news here until end january and that's squeaky bum time for the company. i've said it many times, the only reason this company exists is because of the gold price over the past 3 years. such is the incompetence of mgt.

as for a t/o, who the f@ck is going to offer anything on a company that can only turn a profit when gold is above $1900. it doesn't matter how many ounces you're mining if half of them are at a loss, and the other half are still waiting to be mined (running late here). and then you get into the debt profile, which is 2.5x the current mcap.

you want a company with a **** ton of news coming up then go to shg. drilling across all 3 tenements due in the next 6-8 weeks (hum can't afford to drill anything). q1 will throw off +$20m ebitda and move them to a net cash position of somewhere between $10-15m. hum throwing off nothing and close to $150m in debt. and then there's shg's organic growth of a second ball mill producing 25-30k oz for less than $10m investment and up and running before year end 2024.

by 2024 year end they'll have a run-rate of 135-140k oz @ $1100 aisc (currently 100k at $1000 aisc), have $50m cash in the bank, have proven up more than 1m oz reserves (across 3 x tenements), have a mining license for a third mine (highest grade +1m oz resource in africa), and potentially another 500k oz neighboring license near an existing mine, plus $30m in vat receivables. current ev:ebitda is 1.8. by year end at current sp it will be less than 1. that's 1!!! anyone care to guess hum's? and it will be a big f@cking guess btw.

shg is what a t/o target looks like. hum is a bag of festering d!cks in comparison. you may as well go to the casino and put all your money on black, except i wouldn't say hum is a 50:50 given db's very long track record of failure.

Canuck, I have no idea what you're on about wrt 'total return' strategy. It's far form 'total return' when you look at production increases yoy. Remember the more you produce the more it costs to stand still.

As for the dividend, if they increase it the sp will increase (including our income), which is what happened last time. In the same way as when they cut the dividend and monthly payment we crashed and have never recovered. I'd like to see them take the average of H1 & H2 dividend payments as their commitment to next year. This should leave enough for debt repayments and modest growth (oil based). If commodity prices increase they should point the cash at increasing production. If a great oil heavy acquisition opportunity presents itself they should take on debt primarily to fund. And above all they should look to sell up. I'd be more than happy to take 20p.

Good news on inflation today. Gold and oil should benefit, especially gold :) AIMHO GLA

Well I think it's all but guaranteed that Au will stay in the 1900's for the remainder of 2023 given the inflation print today. I'd also say that we're going to t least average $1900 for 2024 regardless of geo-political risk. That means we're all but guaranteed +$20m EBITDA this quarter. In fact we could even break a new record if we produce 28k oz (average over last 2 quarters) and AISC remain less than $1050 for the group. This also means we'll be somewhere between 10-15m net cash come Q4 results in late January. That EV:EBITDA multiple will keep getting smaller quite rapidly from this point regardless of how much drilling we get done.

I also forgot to mention that we've only seen half the WK drill results. So there's WK, NL & Sing all due in the next 6-8 weeks. Then in Q1 we'll have Q4 results, further WK exploration (from Q4 drilling), plus Reserves update. In other words we'll have significant news every 2-3 weeks for the next 4.5 months. Fantastic near-term future. GLA

If by 'trading' you mean selling then it would have been less than half that amount from me in October. I sold down most of the 2.75m shares that I no longer hold before-hand. Obviously I'm very happy with that decision, especially considering most were sold when we were oscillating between 18-20p around 6 months ago. I got f@cked by eml in between, but made most of it back with Asos. So not all great decisions, but has taught me for the last time not to go near companies with poor fundamentals, that aren't producing yet, or have heavy debt burdens. It's why around 75% of my wealth sits here and in SHG. I'm also happy to go 'all in' on certain companies, so it's important they can stand up to stormy conditions.

Fwiw if SHG goes on a run and we're still here in the 10's then I'll start buying back. Currently they're at par, which means the 2.75m i3e shares I sold down can now buy me 4.5m shares. Crazy how much this has dropped. I really can't put my finger on the reasons why given the last update. My mind naturally goes toward an II selling down and a raise coming. But as you've pointed out Stas the volume is too low for this to be the case. This in turn points to the fact that mgt need to get us on more investor radars. Their commitment to doing this part of their job is nothing short of pathetic. GLA

we have 2 x drilling updates in the next 6 weeks. and then 4 weeks later the q4 update where we will have turned over to a net cash position. singida is the big one wrt exploration imo. if it looks like there's a much larger 'connected' resource then this will fly. it will also mean they can sanction the extra ball mill and increase production by 25-30k oz per annum by 2025 for less than $10m.

come 2025 we're a mid sized african gold miner producing 135-140k oz per annum with a **** tone of resources, and i'd imagine around $50m in cash. that doesn't even take into account any vat refund, or the wk ml license being awarded, or picking up the other license near singida. the amount of value drivers over the next 12 months are absolutely ridiculous. and that's with au averaging $1900. if it pushes higher then who knows what we'd be worth in a t/o situation. right now we're worth 20p all day. but if you throw all these other things on top...? such a good investment thesis here. gla

If out of round awards are afterwards then we're waiting until Q1 / H1 then?

SP is getting laughable now. Wtf is going on here? We could break 10p at this rate. Stas, your last post on who is selling makes sense i.e. PIs, but could it not be a major holder slowly selling down? Seems bonkers for PIs to be getting out at this level given EV:EBITDA, low level of debt, organic growth opportunity, and divi now approaching 10% (even at reduced rate).

SP now at par with SHG. Who would have thought we'd stoop so low. GLA (looks like we're gonna need it).

Agree with a lot of what you've said Tony but the Banff / Serica part of the recent rns makes one wonder wtf is happening. As does the 75% PDP element.

To my mind there's obviously something afoot, whether it comes off in the near future is another matter. It took an age to bring a minnow on-board with Serenity. I'm also wondering what's happening with Tain and whether we'll get a surprise on that front. If Serica are interested in Kyle then surely they'll be interested in Tain + Serenity. And if they're open to geographic diversification in a safe fiscal jurisdiction then our Canadian assets are a bargain. They could pick us up for cash in the bank and add significantly to their gas, oil and exploration portfolio in the Nth Sea and Canada. Perhaps it's the fact we have so many wells so we're just too much hassle to swallow.

We can only hope Vernet. In the meantime poo is nearing $80 again and we're now in the 10's. Not sure what else mgt need to see to make the decision to sell up.